Baseball would seem to be a simple game. After all, as they say, “You hit the ball, you throw the ball, and you catch the ball.” If you played baseball as a kid, it’s very likely you’ve heard this phrase, and for good reason. As the great Yogi Berra said, “Baseball is 90% mental, and the other half physical.” Thus, breaking it down into simple components makes perfect sense!
Unfortunately, it isn’t that easy. In fact, putting “baseball” and “simple” in the same sentence is like oil and water- it just doesn’t go together. There is no player that epitomizes this more than Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich. Yelich’s career is very similar to a ribeye that came out just a bit too rare; while the baseline has been quite high, it always leaves you wanting a little better.
What do I mean by this? We’ve seen some peak seasons from Yelich, and the raw talent is immense. Yet, due to complicated factors, there have often been barriers that have gotten in the way of him being the transcendent player he’s shown the ability to be. As he enters his 30s, what is the outlook for him going forward? I truly believe there may not be a player in recent memory where it is harder to give a definite answer to that question. Regardless, let’s dive into the curious case of Christian Yelich, and try to find an answer to the impossible question.
Christian Yelich’s Career Evolution
It may seem strange to go to the start of Yelich’s pro baseball career, considering he’s an established veteran at this point. That being said, in order to best comprehend how we got to this point, we need to paint a story of the player, it all starts with him being drafted in the first round in 2010.
In one season, Yelich went from not being considered a top-100 prospect from MLB Pipeline to being the 35th overall ranked prospect; I guess that’s what happens when you have a 140 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) in your first pro season. Then, after posting a 162 wRC+ at High-A, he vaulted to being the 13th-ranked prospect the year after. After just 222 plate appearances in Double-A, he was called up the majors, which is quite the quick vault.
Immediately, Yelich was able to translate quite nicely to the major-league level. Over the first 2.5 season of his career, he posted a 119 wRC+ along with a .365 on-base percentage. On the other hand, he showcased close to zero power, with just a .116 isolated power (ISO), preventing him from taking the next step to being a true star. On the bright side, it did take a step forward in 2016 (.185 ISO), and although it came back down to 2017, it was still better (.156 ISO) than it had been previously.
At this point, the slight uptick in power made Yelich a coveted player, especially with the Marlins’ new ownership tearing down their roster. That led to him being traded to the Brewers in exchange for a prospect package headlined by Lewis Brinson, a trade that wasn’t extremely popular among Brewers fans:
Gave away some of the best prospects in the organization for a slightly above average OF. Awesome😏
— Johnny Utah (@RobHolz) January 25, 2018
3 top 100 prospect for Christian Yelich. Lmao Joke of a franchise.
— George Gonzalez (@GeorgeMCwall) January 25, 2018
Congrats. You mortaged your future for a 270 hitter who hits 20 hr
— George Gonzalez (@GeorgeMCwall) January 25, 2018
Well, let’s take a look at how Yelich’s first two seasons in Milwaukee went:
- .326/.402/.598, .272 ISO, 167 wRC+
- .329/.429/.671, .342 ISO, 174 wRC+
Not only did Yelich win the National League MVP in 2018, but he would likely have won that ward again in 2019 had he not fractured his kneecap in early September. Based on Fangraphs’ 5×5 dollar values, he was tied for the most-valuable fantasy player in 2018, and the second-most valuable fantasy player in 2019. Considering the missed time he had in 2019, it’s safe to say he was the top fantasy option for those two seasons.
Since that injury, sadly, Yelich hasn’t been the same. In 2021, he was roughly a league-average hitter (101 wRC+), while his power (.125 ISO) fell to where it was at the very beginning of his career. “Not great, Bob!” All of a sudden, Yelich went from being a consensus first-round pick to outside the top-100 picks in the NFBC Main Event. That’s quite the fall in just one year. Clearly, there is pessimism surrounding Yelich getting back to his MVP form, which makes sense. After all, getting back to peak form at age 30 isn’t an easy task, especially since he’s had to deal with a multitude of injuries; he’s dealt with back issues in addition to the knee injury. At the same time, there’s also the chance he puts it all together, which kept him cemented as a top-25 outfielder. Will that faith be rewarded? It may all come down to Yelich’s approach.
Yelich’s Inconsistent Approach
Even when Yelich didn’t have elite power numbers, he still hit the ball extremely hard. Between 2015 and 2020, he ranked in the 92nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, while he possesses a career hard-hit rate of 48.8%. In other words, almost half of his batted balls have been hit over 95 MPH are higher.
So, why hasn’t the power been there? See, it’s not just about hitting the ball hard; it’s about hitting the ball hard AND in the air. Unfortunately, with a career 54.8% ground-ball rate, that has not always been the case for Yelich. In fact, when plotting his ground-ball rate with his power production, it’s clear to see the heavy correlation:
Since 2015, Yelich’s ground-ball rate had consistently been on the decline, which helped support the power output. With a career-low 42.8% ground-ball rate, it appeared Yelich had put it all together to be an elite power hitter. Well, now we’re left cringing with every batted ball on the ground. Heck, as I’m writing this, Yelich just hit a ball on the ground. It’s the frustrating conundrum that we deal with when players can’t translate their raw power into more game power, yet a common one; this is the same issue Vladimir Guerrero Jr. dealt with before his breakout last year, for instance.
So, Yelich just needs to hit the ball in the air more, and that’s it? Well, it’s not that simple. Generally, hitters who take a lot of pitchers in the zone are those that can’t do a lot of damage in the power department, yet control the zone. That is why you found players like Myles Straw, David Fletcher, and Pavin Smith at the top of the leaderboard for called-strike rate last season. With that in mind, it makes sense that Yelich would have been a more passive hitter when he wasn’t gearing for power. Interestingly, though, we saw that change during his peak season:
For what it is worth, Yelich’s top two years in terms of swing rate came in 2018 and 2019. This may be a situation where correlation does not equal causation, but it is not unreasonable to say that a more aggressive approach at the plate would help him unlock more power; the swing rate may be more reflective of his intentions than anything else.
In 2020, though, it was apparent that Yelich had changed his approach. With a zone-swing rate under 60%, he was essentially looking for a walk. With his reputation from his 2018 and 2019 seasons, it worked- he had an 18.6% walk rate. Yet, it also helped contribute to a spiked 30.8% strikeout rate, which is not ideal.
This approach translated early into the 2021 season, but he adapted as the year went on; by the end, he was as aggressive as he was in 2019. This year, though, it’s been back to the passive approach:
So far, Yelich’s swinging-strike rate is at a reasonable 10%. However, he has a 21.5% called-strike rate, which has helped lead to a 29.4% strikeout rate. Even if that is a bit high – I have his expected strikeout rate around 25.5% – it is still a concern; any plateau with the batting average is not ideal considering the diminished power.
Batted-ball trajectory, aggressiveness in the zone, Yelich has quite a complicated approach; we see glimpses of the optimal approach in 2019, but that has reverted back since. Ironically, a lot of the reasons to be excited about his prospects coming into 2022 haven’t been there, yet that doesn’t mean that there aren’t reasons to be intrigued by his early numbers.
The Good and Bad So Far In 2022 For Yelich
Usually, you see fantasy sports articles have a clear take, and build on that. Of course, Yelich isn’t that simple of a case study. Thus, we need to analyze the pros and cons of what we have seen from him so far, which will help us come to a conclusion of what we should expect from Yelich moving forward. I guess you can call this the second coming of the Great Debate!
THE GOOD
As we have gone over, regardless of its trajectory, one factor that Yelich has always had in his favor is the ability to hit the ball hard. After he ranked in *just* the 80th percentile in average exit velocity last season, he’s back to hitting the ball as hard as ever. Right now, he is hitting the ball 95 MPH on TWO-THIRDS of his batted balls. Well, okay then.
Even more encouraging is his 18.5% barrel rate so far. With only 27 batted balls, we are only about halfway towards any sort of stabilization with statcast metrics, but we’ll take any early indication that his power may be improving. Per my expected home run/fly ball metric, he ranks second in all of baseball (35.9%), and has the seventh-largest difference (minus 23.4%) with his actual home run/fly ball rate. In other words, he’s been tremendously unlucky so far.
So far, he isn’t tomahawking balls as much (he has hit fewer ground balls at the top of the zone), while his mechanics, by the eye test, are the same as they were in 2019. Even though THE BAT X only projects him for a .169 ISO, they have him projected to finish as a top-20 outfielder this season, as do Steamer projections.
Between his poor home-run luck and a .269 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that is quite low for his standards, it’s clear his actual results (.195/.333/.366) do not match up with what he SHOULD be producing. This gap remains the simplest, but easiest way to find buy-low candidates. It is just hard to ignore the fact that Yelich’s barrel/fly ball rate (62.5%) is about as high as you ever hope it can be. That number is sure to come down – it is practically impossible to maintain such. high pace – but it is a clear sign that he may be fully healthy this season, which is a positive for his power production.
THE BAD
At the same time, Yelich’s #1 issue remains in place: he continues to hit the ball on the ground. His 55.6% ground-ball rate is practically unchanged from where it was last year (55.6). It’s great to hit the ball hard, but there is only so much you can do when it’s on the ground. In fact, with him pulling the ball (40.7%) more, he’s in jeopardy of his BABIP being suppressed somewhat by the shift, which adds another wrinkle to this.
We got wowed by high exit velocity numbers, but there is a reason why barrel rate is far more indicative of power production than other statcast numbers; it is the combination of hitting the ball hard AND in the air that truly counts. Yelich isn’t doing that, and you wonder if the barrel rate is bound to come down.
After all, Yelich’s exit velocity bump is mainly just on ground balls. His exit velocity on fly balls/line drives (95.7 MPH) is roughly the same as it was last year (96.1 MPH), for perspective, which makes me somewhat pessimistic about the power gains. Now, his 7.6% barrel rate was low to begin with last year, so a barrel rate even in the double-digits isn’t a stretch. That being said, the 12.1% barrel rate he had in the short 2020 season still seems close to his ceiling.
We touched on how Yelich’s passiveness can impact his batting average, and he has made less contact in the zone (79%) so far as well. Add in the fact that he has yet to attempt a stolen base this season, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to be a standout in any category.
Really, though, the main negative with Yelich is how much variance there is in his profile. Is he going to hit for more power or will the barrel rate come down? He has the capability to steal bases, but when will that come? His batted-ball tendencies help the BABIP, but will the passiveness cause him to strike out too much, leading to a worse batting average. There is a reason this is “the curious case of Christian Yelich”.
THE REALITY
With so much volatility present, it can be hard to develop an accurate expectation for Yelich this season.
The quality of contact is a major positive, as it’s a sign of him being healthier this season. Remember, his performance last season was likely plagued by back injuries, and given his track record, we should expect Yelich to continue to hit the ball extremely hard.
Unfortunately, if the ground balls remain an issue, there is only so far he can go; there is an immense amount of pressure on him to thrive with every ball he hits in the air. I do think there is a reasonable chance the barrel rate is back near the 12% mark it was in 2020, and I’d bet on him hitting at least 20 home runs this season.
Since we have seen Yelich adapt his approach to be more aggressive before, I could see a similar scenario this year. If so, that will be a major boon for his batting average, with one around .260 being well in the cards. Considering he appears to be healthier too, it should only be a matter of time before he starts stealing bases.
Thus, in the end, I think you’re getting a .260 batting average, 20+ home runs, and double-digit stolen bases. Furthermore, based on his on-base ability and lineup spot, he remains in a position to score and drive in runs, which is another plus. Sure, he may not be a standout player anywhere, but he does appear to be a potential all-around category contributor who could be on track to finish as a top-20 outfielder this season, thus exceeding his draft position. Thus, overall, I’d take what we’ve seen from him as a positive, even if some concerns still persist.
Overview
There may be no player I find more polarizing and difficult to evaluate than Christian Yelich.
He’s hitting the ball with authority again, indicating that he’s healthy, and he already has five barrels on 27 batted-ball events. At the same time, he continues to hit the ball on the ground, and his passive approach isn’t ideal.
If you have a league manager who is wary about Yelich’s poor surface-level statistics, I’d definitely recommend buying low. The batted-ball luck all-around has been quite unlucky, and as the sample size increases, it should also even out. At the same time, keep in mind that his shiny red Baseball Savant sliders also don’t properly demonstrate his in-game abilities; his low chase rate is deceiving based on his passive approach, and the trajectory of contact limits the quality of contact.
Even if we don’t get MVP Christian Yelich back, it is encouraging to see him take some strides this season. Now, we wait for him to put it all together. Ideally, we’d see him hit the ball in the air again, but with a more power-oriented approach, there is still something to be unlocked with him. Can we witness the breakout take place once again? That’s the mystery that remains to be solved!