There’s one week until the U.S. Open, but this week is much, much more than a pre-major tune-up for this stacked field. The Memorial Tournament carries a certain amount of weight in the world of golf. Whether that’s because of Jack Nicklaus’ pull as the host of the invitational, or the prestige of Muirfield Village, these guys are coming here focused on winning and not just prepping for Pinehurst. This is shaping up to be an incredible tournament.
How incredible? Well, 53 of the top 60 in OWGR will be teeing it up in Dublin, Ohio, including 33 of the top 35 golfers in the world (Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton had better plans with the Saudis). The signature event status brings some extra juice for the payouts along with the strong field. It’s worth noting that there will be a cut after 2 rounds, cutting to the top 50 and ties. Most signature events are a no-cut, small field, but with the invitational status of The Memorial, the rules are slightly different. Either way, the best of the best are ready to compete for a hard-earned handshake from Jack Nicklaus.
The Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
The par 72 course can stretch to over 7,500 yards, but the distance is nowhere close to being the true challenge at Muirfield Village. Off the tee, these golfers will face some of the most intimidating shots of the year. Should they miss the fairway, scrambling for pars will be extremely difficult. The length of the rough at Muirfield Village is substantial, making it almost impossible to find the green on the second shot. Once on the bentgrass greens, the real challenge begins.
The green complexes at Jack’s Place are some of the firmest and fastest on Tour. Not only does this make putting very difficult, it affects approach shots staying on or running off. Greens in regulation will be low this week, so put a lot of emphasis on scrambling ability around the green. It will take a true all-around performance to contend for The Memorial. The road to the podium is pretty simple…drive it perfectly, approach it perfectly, and putt it perfectly. Easy, right?? It’s going to take a major-worthy performance to win The Memorial, and the following guys have what it takes to win the whole thing!
Best Bets: The Memorial
Scottie Scheffler (+2000 Win Wire to Wire)
These days, if you’re betting on Scottie Scheffler, you’ve got to find a way to add some value! I have no doubt in my mind that Scheffler will win this week, so adding some juice with the Wire to Wire tag could be worth it. He’ll have to have at least a share of the lead after every round, but compared to the measly +350 odds to win, I believe the 20-1 is worth a shot.
Why am I so confident in Scheffler winning The Memorial, and doing so in an incredibly easy fashion? Firstly, he has somehow gotten better over the last 6 months. He ended 2023 as the second-greatest golfer in the history of the sport, statistically speaking. And yet, with his newly founded putting skills, he’s improved by over half a stroke in 2024. Had it not been for Ted Scott’s son graduating during the PGA Championship, we could have had a serious bid for a grand slam. That’s in the past, though, and Scheffler will leave no doubt in Dublin.
The second reason I’ve got a lot of confidence in Scottie is his track record here. The past 2 times at Muirfield Village, Scottie has finished in 3rd. Last year, he missed out on the playoff by 1 stroke, while losing EIGHT STROKES putting. Scottie comes into The Memorial having gained strokes on the green in 7 consecutive events, marking a career-best. If he continues to putt well, this will be over by Friday. I like the value of a Wire to Wire win for Scottie Scheffler at 20-1, especially in this small field. I also think parlaying him winning with a few Top-20 finishers is another great way of multiplying his low odds. If you can’t beat him, use him!
I want to preface the next two golfers with this: Scottie Scheffler is winning this tournament. The listed odds are with Scheffler in the field, but I would HIGHLY suggest looking for a Without Scheffler market. At the time of writing this, DraftKings does not have that available.
Sahith Theegala (+4000)
Sahith Theegala’s 2024 season has been very, very solid. While he has not won this year, he’s been as close as you can get. Chris Kirk beat him by 1 stroke at The Sentry, and only Scottie Scheffler could beat him at The RBC Heritage. He has also had 3 other Top 10 finishes and a T12 at Valhalla after starting Sunday 1 stroke behind the leaders. All in all, it has been a fantastic first half of the season for Theegala.
This success is thanks to 2 parts of Theegala’s game: his elite ball striking and putting. He’s gained strokes to the field ball-striking in all but 2 events in 2024. And other than a few poor putting performances, you can count on Theegala gaining anywhere from 3 to 7 strokes on the green. In his 3 times at Muirfield Village, Sahith has had some mixed results. Last year’s T58 was his worst outing, mainly due to his poor accuracy off the tee, as he lost 5 strokes to the field. In 2022, The Memorial was Sahith’s 3rd best outing of the season, grabbing a T5 and gained strokes in every category. Should he be able to stay in the fairway, he can certainly compete.
Sahith Theegala is definitely talented enough to win here, and at 40-1, I believe there is great value in backing him. The only way he takes himself out of contention is playing too much from the rough. His approach game is elite, and his short game is even better. Expect him to be towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday!
Jake Knapp (+20000, Top 10 +1200)
Jake Knapp’s career has been the definition of a process. The 30-year-old rookie finally earned his Tour card via the Korn Ferry domination he displayed in 2023. Before that, he had virtually nothing going for him, missing almost every cut on the Canadian Tour. Something clicked after a win in 2022, launching him into the beast he is today. From there, he rattled off 10 Top 10 finishes in 2023 and now has a win and 3 other Top 10s on the PGA Tour.
While we can’t see his strokes distributions prior to 2024, this year has shown us exactly who Jake Knapp is as a golfer. He has great distance off the tee and in the approach game, he compares to just about anyone not named Scottie Scheffler. Knapp had a 10-week stretch this spring in which he gained strokes Approaching the Green in every event. His putting is very strong as well, ranking 62nd on Tour. Overall, Jake Knapp is a very skilled golfer who has seen steady improvements over the past few years. If his form continues, he will be a top golfer in the years to come.
To be completely honest, the odds are not great that Jake Knapp will win The Memorial, but that’s why his odds are 200-1. I suggest looking for a market that removes some of the top golfers or taking a look at his odds to finish in the Top 10. At 12-1, you get great odds for a golfer this talented in a field of only 73. Considering he has 4 Top 10 finishes in his last 12 events (33% success rate), I’d say 12-1 is a fantastic number!