As bittersweet as it may be, we have reached the final major of 2024. Other than the handful playing the Summer Olympics starting in just a few days, this will be the final time we get to watch the LIV and PGA collide. This time, it’s for one of golf’s most coveted prizes, the Claret Jug. Royal Troon Golf Club has the high honor of hosting 156 of the world’s best golfers, all battling for the 152nd Open Championship. The last time Royal Troon hosted the year’s final major was in 2016 when Henrik Stenson outlasted Phil Mickelson in a high-scoring affair. Given the current state of golf, I expect much of the same this time around: a high winning score, and only the big guns can truly win.
As we’ve seen with the year’s first 3 majors, it takes a special type of golfer to win these events. From one of the best in the sport’s history with Scottie Scheffler, to one of the most consistent of all time in Xander Schauffele, and finally one of the most powerful ever with Bryson DeChambeau, it’s clear that only the best of the best can win a major. Now you might say Brian Harman’s Open win in 2023 goes against that, but his 6-stroke victory was an anomaly. He’s truly the only golfer to win a major in the past 5 years that wasn’t towards the top of the game. Only the best will compete to win the final major of 2024. Let’s take a closer look at the test Royal Troon presents.
The Course: Royal Troon Golf Club
Royal Troon is a perfect host for The Open Championship. This links-style course is the exact image of what I have in mind when I think about this historic major. Sitting along the Scottish coast, the winds and rainy conditions can be quite unpredictable and change scoring drastically. Current projections look very timid, meaning we could even see scores rivaling Valhalla’s high marks earlier this year. The par 71 course stretches to almost 7,400 yards, but favorable rollouts in the fairways lessen the distance needed to succeed. The more important part is accuracy, as golfers will need to avoid both the fescue and the pot bunkers. Both of these can and will be very penalizing should golfers miss the fairways.
The real test of Royal Troon comes with the approach shot. Royal Troon features some of the smallest green complexes in Open history. Not to be confused with the gigantic greens we’ve seen at courses like St. Andrew’s, greens in regulation will come at a premium at Royal Troon. There will be a huge emphasis on scrambling around the green, both from the greenside pot bunkers and utilizing the Texas wedge. The short grass around the greens makes this an interesting test, as golfers who struggle with scrambling can get a bump by being able to rely on putting off the green. In general, the winner will be a consistent driver who has a great week approaching the greens, and someone who can get creative around the small greens. To be honest, I think there’s only a handful of golfers that can truly win The Open. Here are 3 of them!
Best Bets: The Open Championship
Collin Morikawa (+1400)
Collin Morikawa is officially BACK. After finding such quick success on Tour, most of 2022 and 2023 were overwhelmingly disappointing. Even after the win at The ZOZO in October, the first few months of 2024 were very rocky, with only 1 finish inside the Top 10 before The Masters. That’s where Collin really turned his form around.
His T3 finish at Augusta kickstarted a stretch that you could argue is only worse than Scottie Scheffler’s season. If you throw out the weird Zurich Team event, Collin has 9 consecutive finishes of T16 or better. Better yet, these are all coming in majors and Signature Events. In this unbelievable stretch, Collin has gained at least 7 strokes to the field in every event, including surpassing 10+ strokes in all 3 majors. These fantastic finishes have come primarily with his putting turnaround. His ball-striking has always been world-class, but the putter can be his Achilles Heel. However, Collin has gained strokes putting in 8 of these 9 events, and 6 of those he gained over 4 strokes on the field. If he can continue this form, it’s only a matter of time before Collin Morikawa is in the Winner’s Circle once again.
Although he’s never played at Royal Troon, Collin Morikawa has shown the ability to win in these conditions. He won in his first Open Championship in 2021, outlasting Jordan Spieth for his second major championship. He did however miss the cut in the next 2 Open Championships, but considering where his form was at the time, this does not worry me in the slightest. Collin Morikawa is one of the biggest names and talents in the sport, and at 14-1, you’re getting a great price. He’s lifted the Claret Jug before, and he’ll do it again this week!
Cameron Young (+5500)
This might come as a bit of a shock, especially at the mediocre odds he currently sits at. However, I think Cameron Young is on the brink of a breakout. All it will take is 1 win to finally open the floodgates, and I think it will happen here at Royal Troon. He’s been knocking on the door for so long but to no fruition. You can only finish runner-up so many times (8!!!) before eventually the luck goes your way. Why not here?
I’m confident in Young’s breakout here for a few reasons. Firstly, he’s shown his love for this major regardless of the course. He finished 1 stroke behind Cam Smith in 2022 and had a strong T8 outing last year. That T8 looks even better considering he lost 6 strokes in the short game. On top of his success at The Open, Young also comes in with great form. His play this year has been very hit or miss, but he comes in with back-to-back Top 10 finishes where he gained strokes across the board. The icing on the cake for Young is his course fit. He’s known for both his distance and accuracy, as he’s one of the best ball-strikers in the game. His short game can be questionable, but his putter can get very hot. His around-the-green struggles can be somewhat dismissed because oftentimes he can rely on putting from the fairway.
All in all, Cameron Young has the whole package. He has the event history, the great form, and a fantastic course fit. If he had a win on Tour under his belt, his odds would be much closer to 35-1 or 40-1. I will happily take the higher odds because of his lack of winning history because that’s how winning is supposed to work! The more you put yourself in the position to win, you will eventually finish the job. I think Cameron Young finally does just that and wins at Royal Troon!
Davis Thompson (+10000, Top 10 +800)
There’s only a handful of golfers on Earth who are playing better golf than Davis Thompson. His T2 in Myrtle Beach 2 months ago kickstarted everything. After strong finishes at The Charles Schwab and The Memorial, Thompson finished T9 at Pinehurst. He followed that up with a T2 at The Rocket Mortgage, and finally, his first Tour win at The John Deere Classic. Statistically speaking, he is now a Top 20 golfer.
Not only is Davis Thompson getting good finishes, it’s the way that he’s doing it that’s great. He’s not relying on one aspect of the game to carry him, but yet finding success in every facet. He has been consistently gaining strokes in all major categories of the game. Thompson also fits Royal Troon to a T. He is both long and accurate off the tee, and his approach game has never been better. His scrambling is amongst the best on Tour, and his putter has been very hot. Regardless of how easy the course is playing, you can’t get to -28 without being absolutely hot. And this ability to score is my final reason for betting on Davis Thompson. To win this week, these golfers will have to pile on some early birdies and hold steady on the tough finishing holes. Thompson has shown the ability to do both of those and to do them when it counts the most.
Winning a major is unbelievably difficult, which is why I’m also including a Top 10 bet for Davis Thompson. I love the 100-1 number for him to win, but you can feel great about the 8-1 odds you’re getting for a Top 10 finish. He’s done so in 3 of his last 4 events, which includes his T9 at the U.S. Open. I mentioned Cameron Young opening the floodgates, but Davis Thompson has already opened his. Just wait until he keeps on winning!