The 2024 PGA season is officially here! While it will look much different than seasons past, I am beyond excited to dive into the events. We have plenty of new faces and young guns that will shine throughout 2024, and hopefully, we can pick them at the right times and make some money along the way.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii has the honor of kicking off the season. Formerly known as The Sentry Tournament of Champions, The Sentry will be the new namesake moving forward. The dropping of “Tournament of Champions” is quite literal, as in past seasons only tournament winners from the previous season would tee it up at Kapalua. This will be the first time The Sentry will see non-winners join the field, as all winners AND finishers inside the FedEx Top 50 from 2023 qualify. This essentially doubles the size of the field, from typically around 35 to the 64 teeing it up this time around.
Let’s take a deeper look at Kapalua and how these guys will find success.
The Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
This course is special. It’s absolutely stunning, but I mean special in a different way. It will play as one of the longest courses for the entire year, yet it has been the easiest-scoring course over the past 2 seasons. Many elevation changes make the distance much more manageable than what the yardages will have you believe. It’s also the only par 73 we will see on Tour.
The longer hitters have always found slightly more success at The Sentry. With little danger off the tees, it will take an incredibly bad shot to end up out of bounds on almost all holes. Almost every golfer will be electing to use a driver in most cases, often leaving less than 100 yards in on most par 4s. Don’t be surprised if some of these bigger hitters end up around the greens on a few of the par 4s. Needless to say, if you want to compete here, especially given the strength of the field, birdies will have to be coming at an impressive rate. Unless the weather gets downright unplayable, expect the winning score to be north of -25.
Best Bets: The Sentry
Max Homa (+1200)
I normally don’t bet numbers as low as this, but given the size of the field and the shape of Homa’s game right now, I think this is a great play. Dating back to the Scottish Open, Max has 8 consecutive T13 or better finishes. This includes a win on the DPWT at the Nedbank Golf Challenge, beating out the DPWT’s best challengers.
Homa’s game also fits Kapalua perfectly. Not only is he consistently gaining distance on the field, but he’s also one of the most consistent putters on Tour. His beauty of a wedge game should give him plenty of birdie opportunities. His successes over the years further prove his course fit. He’s played here 3 times, with each finish beating the year prior. Last year’s T3 does not leave much room for improvement, but I think Max can get the job done this time around.
Eric Cole (+5000, +900 Top 5)
Eric Cole is hands down my favorite bet this week, and I can already tell this will be a common theme for the 2024 season. If the books will continue to give Cole odds like this, I will continue to bet on him. I may be the fool betting on a guy who’s never won, but it truly feels imminent at this point.
Since the conclusion of the 2023 FedEx Championship, Eric Cole has played in 5 events. Somehow without a win, he’s finished T4 or better in 4 of those 5 events. His approach numbers are as consistent as you will find, and his putting is as good as anyone’s. I don’t say this lightly… Eric Cole’s game has reached Scottie Scheffler territory. His approach game has been so good that he’s giving himself too many birdie opportunities, which has then negatively affected his putting stats.
Unless something drastically changes, Eric Cole will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. His game is as strong as any, and it’s only a matter of time before he finally finishes the job. It may be this week, it may not. But I can guarantee you that when he does, I’ll have money on him. Hopefully, it comes at a price like this 50/1.
J.T. Poston (+8000)
J.T. Poston has a very similar stat profile as Eric Cole. The only below-average aspect of their games is distance, in which they both are slightly below average. But when it comes to approaching the green and sinking the putts, there are not many who can do it like these guys.
Poston has gained strokes approaching the green in 8 consecutive events, including 5+ strokes in 4 of those 8. He’s gained strokes putting in 9 straight events, including 4+ strokes in 6 of those 9. Only playing twice in the Fall Swing should show you how Poston feels about his game. In years past, J.T. Poston relied on good finishes in the Fall to help solidify his Tour status. With how he’s been playing, Poston won’t have anything to worry about in that department.
Don’t be shocked if you see J.T. Poston win a big-time tournament in 2024. The 2-time winner is primed for a huge season, and I would hate to miss out on him in Hawaii. He’s the guy you want to back in a birdie fest, and I’ll bite at the 80/1 longshot.