The PGA Tour remains in Hawaii, jumping to Honolulu for The Sony Open. The Waialae Country Club has the honor of hosting the first full-field event of the 2024 Season. Many of the top-tier golfers on Tour have unfortunately elected to forego The Sony Open. However, the field is jam-packed with up-and-coming talent. Rising icon Ludvig Aberg, Rookie of the Year Eric Cole, and Englishmen Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick will all tee it up in Hawaii. Will Zalatoris will also be making his 2024 debut, looking for a much better outing in his second event following his 2023 season-ending surgery.
The Course: Waialae Country Club
Stretching just over 7,000 yards, the par 70 course has one of the longest-running histories on the PGA Tour. Not only does it have a lot of history, it also has a lot of predictive history. Similar to many of the shorter Carolina and Georgia courses we see in the second half of the season, the blueprint for success at The Sony Open is clear. The ample dog-legged looks off the tee will require not only hitting the fairways but leaving advantageous looks into the green as well.
Distance off the tee will only be an advantage on the 2 par 5s. This, paired with the importance of accuracy, explains why guys like Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, and Kevin Kisner have found so much success. When picking golfers to back this week, I strongly suggest making driving accuracy priority number 1. I would then look for current form with their approach game, as well as recent putting success. Putting is the most volatile aspect of golf, but good history and current form is a promising final piece.
Best Bets: The Sony Open
Corey Conners (+2500)
Corey Conners is an underappreciated golfer. His ball-striking is amongst the best in the world. He has not lost strokes off the tee since The Players Championship. He’s only lost strokes approaching the green twice since The Masters. As amazing as that is, his short game has always been his true Achilles Heel.
His T12 finish here in 2023 is a lot better than it looks. Conners lost over 4 strokes putting. Considering he lost by 6 strokes, an average week on the greens would’ve found Corey in contention on the 72nd hole. That T12 was his 4th consecutive finish of T12 or better in Honolulu, including a T3 in 2019. I fully expect his ball-striking to be the typical, consistent quality it has been for years. If Conners’ putter can be at least average this week, look out.
Corey Conners has won twice at the Valero Texas Open, but his game is consistent enough that it should translate into victories elsewhere. On a course that will reward the best ball-strikers and course experience, The Sony Open is a fantastic candidate for Conners’ 3rd Tour victory. Considering most of the top guns are not in this field, I believe 25/1 is a fair price to pay for Corey this week.
Harris English (+4000)
If I’m being completely honest, I never thought I would bet Harris English again, let alone at a number this low. However, there’s something in his game that’s worth taking a deeper look at.
English has been wildly inconsistent over the past 2-3 seasons. In 2021, he was unarguably a Top 10 golfer in the world. Thanks to some nagging injuries, 2022 was an ugly season filled with missed cuts. 2023 saw some really strong finishes, including a T2 at the Arnold Palmer, T3 at the Wells Fargo, and T8 at the U.S. Open. The really weird part of English’s game is he never puts it all together in one week. Most of his success relies on hot-putting weeks. However, English has plenty of fantastic weeks with his irons where he leads the entire field approaching the green and then will give it all back putting.
Harris English fits the mold of accurate off-the-tee, decent course history, and a great putter. This will be his 12th time at Waialae, but his first Hawaiian victory. Here’s to Harris finally putting it all together for 4 rounds.
Alexander Bjork (+13000, +1000 Top 10)
I absolutely love this fit for Alexander Bjork. I’ve had my eye on Bjork for about a year now, and this won’t be the first time I’ve had money on him. I had him as a big longshot at The Open, finishing at a reasonable T41. I never expected him to win there, as distance was a huge problem for him and a necessity at Royal Liverpool. Luckily for Bjork, he fits Waialae PERFECTLY.
Alexander Bjork hits his driver anywhere between 20 and 30 yards shorter than your average Tour player. Unlike your average Tour player, he’s significantly better in every other major aspect of golf. He’s extremely accurate both off the tee and approaching the greens. He’s also very good at scrambling around the greens and happens to be a Top 5 putter in the world.
While his lack of tournament history is unfortunate, Bjork’s course fit is simply too perfect to pass up. Waialae Country Club neutralizes the only weak part of Bjork’s game, leaving him no reason not to find success in Hawaii. There’s great value in both betting him to win, as well as the 10/1 odds for a Top 10 finish. Albeit a different tour, Bjork had 8 Top 10 finishes on the DPWT in 2023. This is my favorite bet of the week!