P.U! What’s that smell? Oh, it’s just the NFL schedule makers cooking us up another TNF contest. No matter the matchup, our goal remains the same, acquiring dubs. With fantasy glory and $500,000 on the line, it’s now more crucial than ever to assemble a winning DraftKings lineup that can dominate the competition. This article offers insights on who should take the coveted captain slot, which core player should anchor your player pool, a value gem that can boost your salary cap flexibility, a sleeper pick with breakout potential, and one player to steer clear of – the dreaded bust. Lock in, as we dive into the tactical decisions that could lead you to DFS victory in this MNF primetime game between the Washington Commanders and the visiting Chicago Bears.
*Disclaimer: These picks have been constructed with the mindset of building a single lineup. When building large field/multi-entry tournaments, if the player sees the field you’ll want to have a piece of him somewhere, my “busts” included.*
TNF Showdown NFL DFS Picks
Captain
Justin Fields
DraftKings Captain Salary- $16,500
Justin Fields is beyond a shadow of a doubt going to be the most dynamic player on the football field tonight. Dyami Brown comes in at a close second, simply because of the name. The $16,500 it’ll take you to roster Fields in your captain slot is the most expensive on tonight’s DFS showdown slate. That’s a price tag that he ought to have no problem paying off. The Commanders DST is currently the 7th friendliest matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Although his team lost in the end, Fields showed a marked improvement in last week’s game. Most promising of all was the fact that Justin Fields finally got both of his top receiving weapons DJ Moore and Cole Kmet going.
"I don't believe I've ever seen a Bears quarterback in my lifetime play as well as Justin did in the first 45 minutes."@TWaddle87 on Justin Fields against Denver. pic.twitter.com/HBAxwkSBGQ
— Marquee Bears (@BearsMarquee) October 5, 2023
Playing at home against the Broncos last week, Fields set season highs. His 28 completions, 335 passing yards, and 4 touchdowns were the most of the young season. While the passing stats are a much-welcomed sight, we have yet to see that huge rushing performance from Fields this season. Something tells me that tonight could be the night. So far this season the Commanders DST gave up 56 rushing yards to Russell Wilson, 46 yards and a touchdown to Josh Allen, and 34 yards to Jalen Hurts. Not a single person wants Fields to succeed more tonight than Bears head coach Matt Eberflus, who many believe is on the hot seat. If Eberflus wants to see another week as an NFL head coach, it would be wise to let his QB go buck wild on TNF tonight.
Captain to consider: Brian Robinson- $13,800
Core Play
Brian Robinson Jr.
DraftKings Salary- $9,200
When the season began, there was debate as to which Commanders running back would take the lead in Eric Bieniemy’s offense. After 4 weeks of play, Brian Robinson Jr. is leaving no doubt that he is the answer to that question. On the year, Robinson is currently outpacing Antonio Gibson 61-13 in carries. This puts Robinson in a prime spot to feast on TNF against a Bears DST that is the 3rd worst team in fantasy football against the run. And I mean they are really bad. Just take a look at this chart which shows how other running backs have eaten against Chicago:
| Week | Player | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | Receiving Yards | Receiving TDs |
| 1 | Aaron Jones | 41 | 1 | 86 | 1 |
| 2 | Rashaad White | 73 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| 3 | Isiah Pacheco | 62 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| 3 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 55 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | Jerick McKinnon | 9 | 0 | 19 | 2 |
| 4 | Jaleel McLaughlin | 72 | 0 | 32 | 1 |
If you’re having any trouble at all following this chart, just know this. If you’re a running back who sees any kind of significant snaps against the Chicago Bears, you are going to score a touchdown. Brian Robinson Jr. is a must-have for your TNF lineups tonight. If I had a wee bit more faith in Sam Howell to continuously put his team in favorable situations, Robinson would be a consideration for me in the captain spot.
Core play to consider: DJ Moore- $10,000
Value
Darnell Mooney
DraftKings Salary- $5,000
Hey remember me? I used to be Justin Fields’ favorite target. For whatever reason it took Chase Claypool (OUT) being inactive for Darnell Mooney to receive significant snaps and an enhanced role. Following a Week 3 performance of zero catches for zero yards on a single target, Mooney took his first step in turning things around. His Week 4 stat line of four receptions for 51 yards on a 75% snap count had to feel good for the 25 year old wide receiver, who had only caught four balls up to that point. With Claypool away from the team’s facilities and Matt Eberflus in desperation mode, there should be no reason that Mooney isn’t an integral part of tonight’s game plan.
After last week’s match, I can’t blame anyone for thinking that both DJ Moore and Cole Kmet should be in line to have a big game tonight. While that may be true for Moore, I don’t believe Kmet comes close to the same output as last week. Kmet obviously isn’t likely to score twice again. Washington has a healthy linebacker group that has been able to stick with the opposition in pass coverage. Being that the Commanders have only given up 26 yards a game to opposing tight ends, I envision Fields gravitating more toward his trusty slot receiver in tonight’s TNF showdown.
Value to consider: Commanders DST- $5,400
Sleeper
Antonio Gibson
DraftKings Salary-$3,200
If anyone is going to set your lineup apart in tonight’s TNF snooze fest, it’s going to be the sleeper. I’d like to once again direct your attention to the chart in the core play section of this article. Did you notice Week 3? No? Well, take another look. Not one, not two, but three different Chiefs running backs were able to find the end zone. Not only that, but two of them went for 55+ rushing yards. I especially want you to pay close attention to the stats that were put up by three guys. Those players being Aaron Jones, Jerick McKinnon, and Jaleel McLaughlin.
Antonio Gibson over 10.5 rec yards -130 Pointsbet
You can take the 12.5 on FanDuel that’s too that’s the next best number but this number is too good to pass up. Bears allow the most reception yards to RB’s and Gibson averages over 8 yards per catch this year. Last year he… pic.twitter.com/Bsim9o7N28
— Matty Chucks⚡️ (@MattyChucks) October 4, 2023
If there is anything that connects Jones, McKinnon, McLaughlin, and Antonio Gibson it’s their pass-catching abilities. His senior year, playing wide receiver at Memphis, Gibson caught 38 passes for 735 yards and 4 touchdowns. That skill immediately translated to the next level as Gibson caught 36 balls in his rookie season followed by 42 and 46 balls in his second and third years. I don’t think I need to remind you that Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy used to coach for Kansas City. It’ll be interesting to see if he can use Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson as efficiently as the Chiefs used their running backs in Week 3.
Sleeper to consider: Cole Turner- $800
Bust
Khalil Herbert
DraftKings Salary-$8,600
Twenty-Seven. Thirty-Five. Thirty-One. Those are Khalil Herbert’s rushing yard totals through the first three weeks of the season. Fast forward (rewind?) to last week’s game against THE BRONCOS (lol) and Herbert’s stat line suddenly jumps. Coincidence? The 18 attempts and 103 rushing yards were both season highs. For those who love to make their start/sit decisions based on the stats in the game log, Herbert looks like a sure-fire TNF pick. I’m here to tell you that this isn’t the case.
For starters, up until the 18 carries, there was a debate about just that. Is Herbert the starter? Rookie running back Roschon Johnson balled out in Week 1 and was rewarded with heavier snap counts in the following two weeks. Week 3 actually saw Johnson reach 45% of snaps, almost an even split. On the year the Commanders DST is giving up 4.5 yards per attempt. However, most recently, against a stout Eagles offensive line, the Commanders only surrendered 3.9. Stuck in a struggling offense, playing against an even worse defense, I’m chalking up Herbert’s Week 4 line as an anomaly.
Bust to consider: Cole Kmet- $6,400
Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End