Week 0 is right around the corner, but all our College Fantasy Football matchups start in Week 1. I know there are still some of you who are currently drafting or have some drafts coming up. I will be doing a series of articles around draft values in different “pockets”. Towards the end of July, I wrote an article, Top College Fantasy Football Values for 2024 CFF. Since then, some Average Draft Positions (ADPs) have changed. Others have yet to move. Today I will be covering 2 pockets: rounds 10-12 and rounds 13-16. ADP is based on Fantrax ADP. When I mention points per game (ppg), I am assuming a 12-team league that uses 6-point passing TDs and 1 point per reception (PPR).
Top College Fantasy Football Values In Rounds 10-12
CFF Quarterback Value
Joey Aguilar – Appalachian State (APD: 127.51)
The passing attempts per game have been increasing year over year in the Shawn Clark system. Last year they threw 33.7 times per game and scored 33.2 points per game. From a fantasy perspective, his quarterbacks average 23.84ppg. In 2023, Ryan Burger got the start but got hurt in game one. In comes Joey Aguilar, and he never looked back. Aguilar was QB9 and the 10th player overall in fantasy. He averaged 25.6ppg. In terms of fantasy, I believe 2023 was the floor for this Appalachian State team. Aguilar has now had an offseason as the starter and another offseason under his belt. Expectations are high for Appalachian State this season, and I expect them to cash in!
CFF Running Back Value
This will be short. Not much to like here. May as well call this the start of the running back dead zone. If you have your drafts in the coming days, take running backs early! Focus on wide receivers and quarterbacks during these rounds. Now let’s look at those wide receivers!
CFF Wide Receiver Values
Xavier Henderson – Cincinnati (APD: 124.65)
Xavier Henderson was a transfer from Florida in 2023. In 12 games he had 100 targets! Now, he only had 58 receptions on those 100 targets. However, he was still able to amass 782 yards. The Bearcats will have a new quarterback under center in 2024, and I believe that will help Henderson in the reception department. They lost their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading reception getters from 2023. That frees up 86 receptions, 1061 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Obviously, Henderson won’t get all that work, but I like his outlook for 2024!
Jalen Moss – Fresno State (APD: 131.94)
Jalen Moss was wide receiver 54 in 2023, averaging 12.7ppg. He had 55 receptions on 87 targets for 706 yards and 6 touchdowns. Reports are that Moss has been doing everything he can to be an impact guy for the Bulldogs in 2024. According to Robert Kuwada, the Fresno State Beat Reporter for the Fresno Bee, “Moss is going to be a special guy. He is going to be one of the better receivers in the conference.” Robert tabbed Moss as his breakout player for the Bulldogs in 2024 on the G5 Hive Worker Bee Series. It also sounds like quarterback, Mikey Keene, is looking good and feeling more comfortable in this offense. This can only help Moss in 2024. I can see Moss getting over 100 targets and closer to 1,000 yards receiving in 2024.
Top College Fantasy Football Values In Rounds 13-16
Tyler Shough – Louisville (ADP: 183.54)
Brohm has been an Offensive Coordinator/Head Coach (OC/HC) for 13 years (I will say 12 for this article due to only 4 games in 2020 for Purdue). A Brohm-led offense has averaged 32.15ppg and 38.14 pass attempts per game. His quarterbacks average 20.93ppg. However, as a HC, his quarterbacks average 23.59ppg. His offenses average 33.57ppg and 39.03 pass attempts per game. As a HC, his highest-producing quarterback was Brandon Doughty in 2014. Doughty put up 36.46ppg in Brohm’s first year at Western Kentucky. While I have given you the bull market, I am compelled to give you the bear market too. His lowest-scoring quarterback as a HC was Elijah Sindelar. Sindelar scored 14.20ppg in 2017. If you have gone quarterback-heavy and are looking for someone to round out your quarterback room, take a look at Tyler Shough.
Washington State Duo – QB, John Mateer (ADP: 153,13) and WR, Josh Meredith (ADP: 156.72)
John Mateer’s ADP has only changed by 2.6 spots since my July article. This is not enough! Ben Arbuckle brought a great offensive scheme to Pullman, WA. An Arbuckle quarterback has averaged 4816 yards passing, 42 TDs, 9 INTs, 128 yards rushing, and 6 TDs on the ground. That is good for 35.53ppg! Those are week-winning numbers! I will admit that those numbers are heavily buoyed by Bailey Zappe’s 62-touchdown season in 2021. But Cam Ward was able to put up 28.99ppg in 2023. That was good for QB13 and #15 overall in fantasy. I foresee John Mateer averaging at least 23 ppg in 2024. Given Arbuckle’s track record, I am projecting on the low side. Mateer is a great QB2 or QB3 for your squad!
Over the last 3 years as Offensive Coordinator, Arbuckle’s #1 wide receiver runs from the slot and has averaged 113 receptions for 1352 yards and 11 touchdowns. The #1 wide receiver in his offense averages 8.72 receptions/game and 24.20ppg. Lincoln Victor has the worst stat line of those 3 years. In 2023, he had 89 receptions (8.09 receptions/game) for 860 yards and 5 touchdowns. That was good for 18.64ppg. Not too shabby, if you ask me. Josh Meredith will be manning the slot in 2024 for the Cougars, so draft him with confidence!
ADPs change over the course of draft season. As drafts finish up, we get more ADP data. And once fall camp starts, we get more news. As drafters, we have to navigate these waters and identify the Top College Fantasy Football values where we see them. Today, we covered rounds 10-16 by identifying 2 separate pockets, rounds 10-12 and rounds 13-16. Running back values just are not there in this range. Making rounds 10-16 Luke’s Running Back Dead Zone. So make sure to grab them earlier in your drafts. Then hammer quarterbacks and wide receivers in rounds 10-16.