Trade Deadline Lineup Forecast: AL 07/20

Time to catch up on all the latest news on American League lineups. Just as with the National League, there is plenty to dive into including some possible impacts of the looming trade deadline. The five hottest hitters in the American League over the past ten days have been: Chas McCormick, Josh Naylor, Triston Casas, Alex Kirilloff, and Shohei Ohtani. Keep in mind the stats detailed below are through July 18. I will try to include any last-minute updates that come through from yesterday’s action. Keep reading for notes on all 15 American League lineups.

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MLB Trade Deadline Lineups Takeaways

AL East

New York Yankees

• Josh Donaldson is back on the IL
  • With Donaldson out, the team promoted Oswald Peraza who hit leadoff in his first three games back in the lineup
  • Peraza has excellent speed and strong plate discipline metrics
  • He is worth taking a shot on especially if he is going to be batting atop the Yankees’ lineup
• Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino are splitting time evenly at catcher
  • Neither one is performing well and both could be in danger of losing their job
  • While a trade is one possibility, the Yankees could give top prospect Austin Wells a chance to take over at some point down the stretch
• Giancarlo Stanton is now batting second in the lineup
  • He has five home runs since June 28 and is showing off the massive power we have grown accustomed to seeing
  • He is hitting a ton of fly balls which is keeping his BABIP and average down, but he should be a reliable source of power for the rest of the season
• With Aaron Judge out, the team could look to improve its outfield at the trade deadline
  • Another option is promoting Everson Pereira from Triple-A
  • Pereira has plus power and a strong hit tool
  • He is worth keeping an eye on in deep formats
• Late News: Harrison Bader left the game on Wednesday with an apparent back injury
  • If he is forced to miss significant time, the team could be forced to call on Pereira

Boston Red Sox

• Triston Casas has come out of the second half crushing the baseball
  • Casas is batting sixth in the lineup and still sitting against lefties
  • He homered in three straight games coming out of the break and appeared in this article as a prime buy-low target on multiple occasions
  • If he is still somehow available in your leagues he needs to be added
• The biggest edition of the trade deadline could be the return of Trevor Story
  • Story is nearing a rehab assignment and will return to be the primary shortstop in the Red Sox lineup
  • His return is likely to put Yu Chang on the bench
  • Chang has been batting ninth in the lineup and playing every day despite struggling offensively since returning from the IL
• Masataka Yoshida is batting all over the top half of the lineup while being one of the hottest hitters in baseball
  • He has hit safely in 10/11 games with a .438 average over that period
  • Over that time, Yoshida still has just a 4.7% barrel rate and a ground ball rate over 50%
  • I would be selling high on Yoshida as opposed to buying this recent hot streak

Tampa Bay Rays

• Jose Siri has been out of the lineup for two of the last three games against a right-handed starter
  • Siri continues to be one of the most difficult players to roster as he crushes home runs whenever he is in the lineup
  • Even with six home runs since June 23, he has just a 93 wRC+ with a batting average below .200 and a strikeout rate over 34%
  • He might be the first part-time player to hit 30 home runs in a season, but can only be rostered in leagues that allow a deep enough bench to replace him on days when he is out of the lineup
• Isaac Paredes has four home runs since the start of July
  • Paredes is batting fifth or sixth in the lineup most games and continuing to hit for excellent power
  • Even though his fantasy value is being held up by his power, he might actually still be a perfect buy-low candidate
  • He has a .267 average since June 16 despite a .238 BABIP. He has a line drive rate over 20% since that date and is walking more than he is striking out. Buy Paredes now

Toronto Blue Jays

• Daulton Varsho has moved into a full-time platoon
  • Varsho is batting seventh and still on the strong side of the platoon, but he is no longer playing against lefties
  • Varsho has a negative wRC+ since June 20 and a strikeout rate over 30%
  • He is no longer a must-roster player and is a fine drop is looking like one of the biggest busts of 2023
  • The Blue Jays could look to acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder at the trade deadline to rotate in for Varsho and Kiermaier instead of handing more at-bats to Santiago Espinal
• Whit Merrifield is suddenly crushing home runs at an impressive rate
  • He has four since July 6 despite only having two barrels during that time
  • Overall, Merrifield continues to have an excellent season hitting for a strong average and stealing lots of bases
  • I do not expect this power outburst to continue
• Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen are both getting into the lineup on a semi-regular basis
  • Neither catcher has been able to take control of the primary catcher duties this season and Kirk has a -29 wRC+ since returning from the IL on July 29
  • Kirk is likely to find himself on the bench more moving forward
  • Jansen is showing significant signs of life at the plate with a .355/.394/.516 slash since June 28. He has 11 home runs in just over 200 plate appearances with strong quality of contact metrics this year
  • He is a solid buy-low in deep two-catcher leagues and could take over the primary catcher duties

Baltimore Orioles

• Cedric Mullins landed on the IL with a quad injury
  • Prior to landing on the IL, Mullins had moved down to sixth in the lineup
  • Since returning from his previous IL trip, Mullins was batting just .246/.318/.368 and most concerningly had only one stolen base
  • You have to wonder if Mullins is still playing through an injury and you might not be able to rely on him consistently down the stretch of the fantasy baseball season
• With Mullins out of the lineup, Colton Cowser and Aaron Hicks have both been in the lineup on a regular basis
  • Cowser is batting seventh while Hicks is batting sixth
  • I highly doubt the Orioles called up Cowser to play Hicks over him and expect him to be the primary third outfielder when Mullins eventually returns
  • One thing to monitor is Cowser’s average launch angle. Early on, he is hitting a ton of ground balls which could get him in trouble if this continues. This is worth keeping an eye on
• Ryan O’Hearn is getting the majority of starts at first base even with Ryan Mountcastle returning
  • Mountcastle is still batting in the middle of the lineup when playing, but O’Hearn has simply been too good to bench
  • O’Hearn is not rostered in enough leagues while Mountcastle is rostered in too many
• Jordan Westburg is batting at the bottom of the lineup
  • Westburg has been underwhelming offensively so far, but a lot of the signs are very encouraging
  • His sweet spot percentage, contact rates, and average exit velocity are all very solid with the only issue being a lack of barrels
  • I am still buying Westburg and now might be a good chance to buy-low

AL West

Houston Astros

• Chas McCormick has moved up to fifth in the Astros’ lineup
  • McCormick has quietly been one of the best outfielders in baseball this season
  • Overall, he has a 146 wRC+ and is slashing .341/.423/.612 since June 8
  • The .442 BABIP over that stretch is unsustainable, but McCormick is posting excellent quality of contact metrics this year and has nine stolen bases to add on
  • He is only rostered in 54% of Fantrax Leagues and needs to be picked up in way more
• Jeremy Pena has dropped to eighth in the lineup
  • Pena is continuing to struggle with a .224/.286/.328 slash since June 20
  • The biggest issues have been a ground ball rate that is way too high recently and the inability to lay off pitches out of the strike zone
  • Pena is not a must-roster player
• The Astros could look to upgrade the lineup at the trade deadline although the most important upgrade will be the return of Yordan Alvarez
  • Alvarez is expected to begin a rehab assignment shortly and will be a major boost to the Astros’ lineup as well as fantasy lineups
  • The situation to monitor with this is Yainer Diaz’s playing time once he returns
  • Diaz is substantially better offensively than Martin Maldonado, but the Astros value Maldonado’s defense
  • Now might be a good time to sell high on Diaz before his playing time takes a hit

Los Angeles Angels

• Zach Neto is back from the IL and batting at the top of the Angels’ lineup
  • Neto continues to be one of my favorite buy-low targets in dynasty and even in redraft leagues that you need help at shortstop
  • He should see his BABIP increase as he continues to hit plenty of line drives and is barreling balls up 9.7% of the time
  • Plus hit tool, plus speed, and plus power for a player that is still developing. Buy, Buy, Buy
• The Angels promoted Trey Cabbage from Triple-A
  • Cabbage is getting starts on the strong side of a platoon and batting eighth in the lineup
  • Cabbage had 23 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 81 Triple-A games and offers an intriguing blend of power and speed at first base
  • The issue is a strikeout rate that has remained above 30% throughout the Minor Leagues and is over 40% early on in his Major League career. I am not rushing to pick him up and think he will likely struggle to handle big-league pitching
• What should fantasy managers do with Mickey Moniak?
  • Moniak is batting third for the Angels and slashing .368/.411/.662 since June 24
  • The issue is that those numbers come with a .465 BABIP and an incredibly high chase and whiff rate
  • Despite his greatness, I am still wanting to sell high as his numbers are completely unsustainable. That being said, I understand why you would keep riding out this hot streak

Texas Rangers

• Travis Jankowski is getting everyday playing time against right-handed pitchers
  • Jankowski has the edge over players like Mitch Garver, Josh Smith, and Robbie Grossman in terms of playing time
  • There is no power (zero barrels this year) and his average is bound to come down (.388 BABIP), but if you are desperate for speed in OBP leagues, he has a 12.4% walk rate and 13 stolen bases in just 58 games
• Leody Tavares has cooled off at the plate
  • Tavares continues to play every day and bat ninth in the lineup
  • Since the start of July, Tavares is slashing .250/.280/.375
  • He is still hitting line drives at an incredible rate and has enough speed to be a 20/20 threat. I am holding Tavares despite his recent slump at the plate
• Expect Ezequiel Duran’s average to continue falling
  • Since June 25, Duran is striking out over 35% of the time and his season-long BABIP of .372 continues to be unsustainable
  • He has the DH spot locked down in the lineup and can be a reliable source of power, but fantasy managers should not expect him to continue being a .300 hitter

Oakland Athletics

• Tyler Soderstrom is the most notable prospect called up by Oakland
  • Soderstrom has slotted right into the middle of the lineup rotating between catcher, first base, and DH
  • His inclusion at catcher in that rotation is essential to helping him maintain catcher eligibility and with no other catcher on the roster I expect him to maintain this
  • Soderstrom has massive power and can be a difference-maker at the catcher position. The one area to watch is his strikeout rate to see if he can keep that in check. He is worth adding in all leagues with at least 15 catchers rostered
• The A’s also called up another prospect in Zack Gelof
  • Gelof is playing second base and batting in the back half of the lineup against righties while moving up toward the top against lefties
  • Gelof comes with an interesting blend of power and speed but has an even bigger strikeout issue than Soderstrom
  • I am not rushing to pick him up yet, but he is somebody on my watch list
• Oakland is undoubtedly going to look to sell anybody they can at the deadline
  • These names include Seth Brown, Tony Kemp, and Ramon Laureano
  • A trade of any of these players could help get Jordan Diaz back into the lineup on a regular basis and give chances to other young players
  • Ryan Noda was diagnosed with a fractured jaw which should open up more playing and potentially provide Conner Capel a path back to the Major Leagues

Seattle Mariners

• If the Mariners are going to make a push for the playoffs, they need to acquire a bat
  • Two positions they could look to upgrade are DH and second base to replace Mike Ford and the combination of Kolten Wong and Jose Caballero
  • I would keep my eye on somebody under the radar like Justin Foscue if Seattle decides to part with pitching in order to get a potential second baseman for the future
• JP Crawford needs to be rostered in 100% of OBP leagues
  • Crawford continues to bat leadoff for the Mariners and is an extremely undervalued asset in fantasy leagues
  • This tweet I put out earlier this week sums things up perfectly:

JP Crawford since June 10th:
.292/.406/.519

Ranks amongst SS:
8th in HR (5)
11th in R (16)
16 in RBI (11)
6th in AVG (.292)
2nd in OBP (.406)
2nd in wRC+

Should be 100% rostered in OBP leagues and rostered way more universally pic.twitter.com/kzLf2lWZvF

— Matt Heckman (@Heckman_Matt115) July 18, 2023

• Jarred Kelenic is back up to third in the lineup
  • Kelenic has hit safely in six straight games while batting .269 since the start of July
  • The concerning part is that he has not hit a home run since June 9 and continues to strike out at a very high rate
  • His barrel rate remains extremely strong and Kelenic should start seeing his home run totals increase. I do not love his profile, but he makes for an interesting buy-low candidate if you are selling in a keeper league

AL Central

Detroit Tigers

• Riley Greene continues to play well and bat second in the lineup
  • His .403 season-long BABIP is unsustainable, but he should see the home runs start coming in bunches
  • Greene’s quality of contact is fantastic, and he is a rising star that seems to be flying under the radar
• Nick Maton is back from Triple-A
  • Maton is getting a lot of starts batting in the back half of the lineup but is not worth rostering
  • Maton’s return has taken away playing time from Andy Ibanez
• Hopefully, you have been following along with this article series and picked up Kerry Carpenter
  • Carpenter has been on fire recently with a 202 wRC+ since July 2
  • He has quietly been excellent all season while posting very strong quality of contact metrics. He should be added in any league you are looking for outfield help in. He holds even more value in points leagues where his lack of stolen bases is less impactful

Kansas City Royals

• MJ Melendez is adjusting his grip on the bat
  • 2023 has been disappointing, but hopefully, this change will lead to better results
  • He has hit safely in five straight and seven of eight potentially signaling some impending improvements
  • He is an interesting buy-low candidate, but not somebody I am actively picking up in shallower formats where he was dropped
• Salvador Perez is battling injury and has been out of the lineup since Sunday
  • With Perez out, Freddy Fermin has gotten a chance to play more batting in the middle of the lineup
  • Fermin has hit four home runs with strong barrel rates and a .286 average so far. He makes for an intriguing watchlist candidate based on Perez’s health
  • There is a chance the Royals could trade Perez to a contender (although unlikely) and this could make Fermin worth a look in two-catcher leagues
• Edward Olivares is back from the IL and could take playing time away from Michael Massey and Nicky Lopez
  • Lopez had been playing almost every day in a super-utility role but is likely to find himself on the bench more
  • Massey has continued to struggle and should also find himself on the bench more
  • All three players are not worth rostering in their current playing time situation

Chicago White Sox

• Rumors are swirling that the White Sox could look to move Tim Anderson at the deadline
  • Anderson is batting second for Chicago and has been swinging it a little bit better since the start of July
  • He still has not hit a home run this year and has just one stolen base since June 17. He should not be rostered outside of deep leagues
  • If Anderson is traded, the White Sox will likely give another chance to either Lenyn Sosa or Jose Rodriguez to prove they can be a significant part of the team’s future
• One trade that would make too much sense is the team trading Lucas Giolito to the Rangers
  • This is me calling my shot, but the Rangers need pitching and the White Sox need young infielders
  • Justin Foscue or Thomas Saggese could find themselves involved in the deal and potentially added instantly to the Major League roster. This is all projection, but if either player is traded to Chicago, they should be picked up immediately
  • Zach Remillard is playing second base and batting at the bottom of Chicago’s lineup currently
  • Remillard is batting just .222 since the start of July and is not worth rostering

Minnesota Twins

• Eduoard Julien is taking control of the second base position
  • Julien is still only playing against righties but is slashing .465/.510/.837 since June 25
  • One potential issue is the impending return of Jorge Polanco who is starting a rehab assignment
  • The Twins could opt to shift Carlos Correa to third base, Polanco to short, and keep Julien at second against righties. This would take playing time away from Donovan Solano
  • This situation is worth keeping a close eye on
• The Twins seemed primed to target a corner infielder, but Alex Kirilloff is proving that they might not need to
  • Kirilloff continues to bat in the middle of Minnesota’s lineup and has even started against two of the last three lefties they have faced
  • He is slashing .373/.431/.588 since June 26 including two home runs since the All-Star Break
  • Kirilloff should be rostered in most standard leagues and all 12+ team points leagues where he holds even more value
• Max Kepler has broken out of his platoon
  • Kepler is being kept in the lineup against both righties and lefties
  • He has been excellent lately batting .294/.351/.510 since June 30
  • His quality of contact this season has been excellent and his true talent level likely lies somewhere between his season-long BABIP of .229 and his recent BABIP of .353. I would expect a number around .270 the rest of the year

Cleveland Guardians

• Josh Naylor is scorching hot at the plate
  • Naylor has hit in nine straight and 17 of his last 18 games with a .378/.410/.743 slash over that time
  • He honestly has been incredible since the calendar flipped to May. After a slow first month, he has a 162 wRC+ and needs to be considered one of the best fantasy options at first base moving forward
  • His RBI pace over 600 plate appearances is 132. That is incredible
• David Fry is getting more playing time at catcher and in the outfield
  • Fry hit 17 home runs in Triple-A last season but is striking out over 30% of the time in the Major Leagues this year
  • I think it is more likely that the Guardians trade for another outfielder at the deadline or promote Oscar Gonzalez as opposed to giving Fry more consistent at-bats
  • A trade for an outfielder could take playing time away from Will Brennan who continues to bat seventh most games
• Now might be a good time to buy Josh Bell
  • Bell’s biggest Achilles heel throughout his career has been a low launch angle which prevents him from hitting for much power
  • Since June 13, Bell’s launch angle is 13.9-degrees which is a vast improvement from the 5.1-degrees he had prior to then
  • He only is slashing .224/.303/.408 over that time, but that comes with a .246 BABIP and I expect his luck to start improving. He is an excellent buy candidate for the second half of the season

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Like and Comment below your Fantrax Username for a chance to win a Signed Vladimir Guerrero Jersey!⁠ pic.twitter.com/v4HHvwK0uO

— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 13, 2023