Trade Deadline Lineup Forecast: NL 07/15

Following up on the latest American League write up, we are back at it with National League lineups. There is plenty to catch up on from the last ten days of baseball. With the All-Star Break, no top performers to list for this week. The top five hitters in the NL from the first half have been: Ronald Acuna Jr, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Luis Arraez, and Juan Soto. Disclaimer: This article is written the day before publishing. Not all statistics will be 100% accurate from the night before. I will do my best to update any important news or notes that come through at the last second. Keep reading to stay up to date on the latest trends from all 15 National League teams.

With the All-Star Break taking up much of this past week, this article is going to focus on the big lineup points and then break down some possible trades we could see coming up and what impacts they could have on lineups. Let me know what you think!

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NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

• The biggest thing to remember is Bryce Harper’s impending return to the field
  • Harper is going to be playing first base which will shift Kyle Schwarber to DH
  • Cristian Pache appeared likely to get a chance for more playing time, but landed on the IL. Top prospect Johan Rojas was promoted
  • Rojas has tons of speed, but is unlikely to see consistent playing time
  • If the team decides to roll with Pache/Rojas, this would help Brandon Marsh move out of a platoon role
  • Darick Hall is most likely to lose his starting lineup spot
• The team could also trade for a better right-handed bench bat
  • Right now, Bryson Stott is in the lineup about 50% of the time against lefties. This number could drop slightly if the team acquires a better right-handed option
  • Josh Harrison would be the most likely to lose his playing time if this trade happens
• Bryce Harper was hit on his surgically repaired elbow on Saturday before the All-Star Break
  • Harper was removed from the game and missed Sunday’s game as well
  • He returned to the lineup on Friday following the break and should be good to go moving forward

Miami Marlins

• The Marlins could look to upgrade the catcher position at the deadline
  • Nick Fortes has been receiving most of the starts behind the dish batting eighth in the lineup
  • Fortes has been decent defensively but has just a 52 wRC+ on the year
  • The team could inquire about Elias Diaz from Colorado or a player like Yan Gomes from the Cubs
  • Either way, if you are relying on Fortes in deep two-catcher leagues, I would plan to make other options
• Dane Myers is playing every day in center field
  • With Jazz Chisholm and Jonathan Davis both on the IL, Myers is up and getting consistent run at the bottom of the lineup
  • Myers has some Minor League track record of producing both power and speed although he has struggled to maintain a reasonable strikeout rate
  • He also hits too many ground balls to tap into his power consistently
  • There is some upside here, but I am not adding him and I expect Miami will make a trade for another outfielder at some point this month which will eat into his playing time
• Garrett Cooper needs to be rostered in more leagues
  • Cooper has been on a tear batting .353/.413/.588 since June 20
  • Most importantly, Cooper is bringing down his strikeout rate while walking more which is more in line with his career norms
  • Cooper has been a model of consistency when healthy over the past several seasons and is batting in a solid lineup spot behind Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez. Pick Cooper up while he is healthy

Atlanta Braves

• The Braves do not look like they need to make any offensive upgrades at the deadline
  • There is the possibility they add an outfielder to the mix to rotate in with Eddie Rosario against lefties although this is less of a priority with Rosario playing well
  • He continues to bat seventh in the lineup and have a nice bounce-back season
• One potential change to monitor is Orlando Arcia losing playing time
  • Arcia is batting .184 since June 25 and .215 since June 15
  • He is an elite defender and that should be enough to keep him in the lineup
  • The other option for Atlanta is to call up Vaughn Grissom if they think that they need an upgrade
  • I am fine moving on from Arcia outside of deep leagues

Washington Nationals

• Jeimer Candelario could be a hot commodity at the deadline
  • Candelario is batting third in the Nationals’ lineup and prior to the ASB, he had hit safely in 14 of 15 games
  • Since June 10, he is batting .310/.376/.607 although I am worried if traded, he could move into more of a platoon. He is batting just .232 off lefties this year after struggling against them last year. A trade could negatively impact his fantasy value
  • Ildemaro Vargas appears most likely to step into a starting role should Candelario be dealt. The team could also call up former top prospect Carter Kieboom. Kieboom is currently on the IL in Triple-A, but is worth keeping an eye on in deep dynasty leagues
  • Late Note: Candelario left the game on Friday night and his health is worth monitoring moving forward
• Corey Dickerson is also an option to be traded to a team looking for a left-handed outfield bat
  • Dickerson is currently on the strong side of a platoon and has solid career numbers against righties
  • If Dickerson is dealt, Stone Garrett could get a chance in an everyday role
  • Garrett has very strong quality of contact metrics and holds fantasy relevance if he can get into the lineup more and keep his strikeout rate in check.
• Alex Call was playing well before the break
  • Call is batting ninth in the lineup and playing every day since being recalled from Triple-A
  • The sample size was only five games, but if Call can keep hitting the ball harder and barreling it up more, he holds some fantasy value in OBP leagues
  • I am not picking him up. Yet, but he is worth keeping an eye on if you need help in the outfield

New York Mets

• With the Mets continuing to struggle, they could sell some veteran names who are impending free agents
  • Tommy Pham instantly sticks out as an option as his contract expires at the end of this year
  • Pham has been batting second in the Mets’ lineup and is extremely relevant for fantasy with power, speed, and strong OBP skills
  • Pham should still retain a starting spot if dealt thanks to his impressive first half
• Francisco Alvarez is already moving up in the lineup and could move higher if the Mets trade Pham
  • Alvarez went on a tear before the break hitting five home runs since the start of July
  • He is now up to 17 on the season and needs to be rostered in all formats
  • Expect some ups and downs due to his plate discipline and contact skills, but he is a rare difference-maker from the catcher position and is worth rostering everywhere
• A trade of any regular should get Ronny Mauricio to the Major Leagues
  • My number one stash right now is Mauricio who has big-time power and speed
  • His chase rate can get him in trouble, but his upside makes him worth taking a shot on
  • Once with the Mets, he should be in the lineup every day and could shift Jeff McNeil to the outfield

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

• Dansby Swanson landed on the IL
  • Swanson to the IL has moved Christopher Morel to second base and Mike Tauchman to DH
  • Tauchman is a candidate to get traded at the deadline although he is batting just .145 since June 20
  • If he is kept, I assume the Cubs will be moving him out of the leadoff spot and he will be on the bench more than he is in the lineup
• Another trade candidate is Yan Gomes
  • Gomes has a club option at the end of this year, but could be a valuable commodity at the deadline
  • He is currently getting the majority of the catcher starts batting in the back half of the lineup
  • If Gomes is traded, Miguel Amaya is the most intriguing player that could see additional playing time
  • Amaya has a strong barrel rate and a 125 wRC+ in limited plate appearances this season. He is worth keeping your eye on in two-catcher leagues
• Cody Bellinger figures to be one of the most sought-after hitters at the deadline if the Cubs decide to sell
  • A Bellinger trade would open up a prime spot in the lineup as well as everyday at-bats in the outfield
  • Two prospects to keep an eye on if Bellinger is dealt are Owen Caissie and Alexander Canario. Caissie has massive power with 21 home runs in Double-A while Canario had a strong 2022, but has been rehabbing from injury and is yet to make it past High-A this season

St. Louis Cardinals

• What happens if Paul Goldschmidt is traded?
  • This would open up a prime spot in the lineup which would could allow Jordan Walker to move up
  • Luken Baker seems most likely to get the first shot at playing time considering he has posted a 165 wRC+ in Triple-A this year
  • Baker has plenty of power but is striking out 40% of the time this year at the Major League level
  • He would not be a must-add, but somebody worth keeping an eye on
• Paul DeJong is another player the Cardinals could trade away
  • DeJong has been solid at shortstop this year with a 102 wRC+ and has been in the lineup on a regular basis
  • If DeJong is dealt, the Cardinals would likely shift Tommy Edman back to shortstop once healthy and keep Nootbaar, Carlson, and Walker in the outfield
  • Another option they have is promoting Masyn Winn who has gotten red-hot at Triple-A recently
• Dylan Carlson is worth adding in OBP leagues
  • Carlson has been walking a ton recently and hitting for league-average power and average
  • He is playing every day and batting toward the bottom of the lineup. Consistent at-bats and strong OBP skills make him an interesting buy-low candidate

Milwaukee Brewers

• Rowdy Tellez landing on the IL has gotten Owen Miller back into the lineup
  • Miller is batting in the middle of the lineup and playing every day even against lefties
  • Miller has not hit a home run since May 24 and is not providing much fantasy value outside of a decent average recently
  • I am not rushing to add him
• Raimel Tapia and Blake Perkins are in more of a platoon now
  • Neither player should be rostered, and I would expect the Brewers to try and upgrade this spot in their lineup around the deadline
  • Another option is the promotion of Sal Frelick although he has been disappointing so far in Triple-A this year
• Willy Adames finally started figuring things out before the break
  • Adames hit safely in nine of ten games to end the first half including hitting four home runs
  • His first-half slash line was dragged down by a .238 BABIP and that should not continue in the second half
  • I am buying Adames for the rest of the season

Cincinnati Reds

• Not sure what the Reds do at the deadline, but I am buying Will Benson
  • Benson drew a start against a lefty in the week before the break and has been incredible since coming back up from Triple-A
  • He has power, speed, and I expect him to start playing more against lefties
  • Benson is valuable starting four out of six games and his value will only continue to grow even with him hitting at the bottom of the lineup
• The Reds could consolidate hitting prospects/starters for pitching
  • If trading a player like Jonathan India or Spencer Steer happens (I think it is unlikely), they would call up Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Major Leagues
  • CES is worth keeping as a stash to see what the Reds decide to do
• Joey Votto has four home runs in July
  • He is playing against all righties and batting sixth in the lineup
  • For deep leagues where you need help at first base, he is worth a look

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Ji-Man Choi is back from the IL and the Pirates appear to be letting him play every day
  • He has been in the lineup all three games since returning batting fifth
  • This might be an attempt by Pittsburgh to see if Choi can generate some trade value from a contender
  • Connor Joe is the person losing most of his playing time as a result of his return. Neither player should be rostered
• Carlos Santana is another player the team could look to trade
  • After a red-hot end to June, Santana has gone cold in July again and might not be worth much on the market
  • Connor Joe would likely step back into a regular lineup spot if either Choi or Santana is traded
• Nick Gonzales is playing against righties and lefties batting eighth
  • Gonzales has posted a solid slashline since being called up, but the underlying metrics are concerning
  • His .351 BABIP comes with a GB% of 59% with a 23.1% sweet spot rate
  • He is also whiffing 36.5% of the time and over 50% on everything except fastballs
  • Now is when you should be selling high in keeper/dynasty leagues

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Miguel Vargas was optioned to Triple-A
  • The team appears content with giving Mookie Betts the majority of starts at second base for now
  • This could be a prime area for Los Angeles to upgrade at the deadline, or they could turn to prospect, Michael Busch, if they want to get Betts back in the outfield
  • Any trade pushing Betts back to right field would take playing time away from Jason Heyward who is playing every day against righties
• James Outman has been better recently but still not great
  • Outman is playing every day and batting eighth in the lineup despite his continued struggles
  • The strikeout rate has come down but is still above 28% since June 27 and he is not hitting for any power
  • If the Dodgers upgrade their outfield at the deadline, Outman could lose his starting job

San Diego Padres

• If the Padres are looking to contend, they will likely upgrade the DH spot in their lineup
  • Matt Carpenter, Brandon Dixon, and Rougned Odor are all sharing the spot currently and splitting playing time
  • Carpenter figures to be the only one who might keep regular at-bats if a move is made
• Manny Machado is finally looking like Manny Machado
  • Machado had multiple hits in five of his last six games leading up to the break and is slashing .287/.333/.585 since June 15
  • His BABIP over that time is still just .257 and he is running an uncharacteristically low line drive rate this year. Even with his price increasing, Machado should still be a buy target for the second-half

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Arizona could target a third baseman at the trade deadline
  • Emmanuel Rivera has had the edge in playing time recently over Evan Longoria, but neither one has been very good lately
  • Rivera is batting .145 since June 13 with a strikeout rate over 30%. Neither option is worth rostering and anybody traded to Arizona should be expected to hop into a full-time role
• Geraldo Perdomo has really slowed down at the plate
  • I mentioned this last time, but Jordan Lawlar is dominating at Double-A
  • With Lawlar dominating and Perdomo struggling, Arizona could give their top prospect a chance during the second half
  • Be aware of this if you are relying on Perdomo in deep leagues
• Dominic Canzone is with the Major League team
  • Canzone has posted strong numbers in Triple-A but does not appear to have a consistent role with the team at this point
  • He is likely to platoon with one of Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy but is not worth picking up at this point

San Francisco Giants

• The issue with almost anybody the Giants trade for is that they could be instantly forced into a platoon
• The most obvious area they could look to improve is the middle infield
  • Casey Schmitt is not getting it done offensively and Thairo Estrada is out for an extended period of time
  • Schmitt could stay up in a bench role but is a prime candidate to lose playing time
• Patrick Bailey has been batting higher in the lineup
  • He is batting fifth for the most part although he has moved up as high as third
  • The strikeout rate and approach at the plate remain suspect, but his quality of contact is still strong, and he should be rostered in two catcher leagues

Colorado Rockies

• The most desired Rockies starter is likely to be All-Star Elias Diaz
  • Diaz has nine home runs while batting .277 on the year and could be valued by a contender
  • If Diaz is moved, Austyn Winns could step into the starter role
  • The other option is for Colorado to give Daniel Cope a chance. Cope was drafted back in 2019 and is batting over .300 on the season. He is not somebody you should be keeping an eye on
• I expect at least one of Jurickson Profar and Randal Grichuk to be traded away
  • Both are starting every day for Colorado and a trade would open up more playing time for Brenton Doyle
  • Nolan Jones could also be an option to slide to the outfield in order to get Elehuris Montero some more consistent at-bats
  • Both Profar and Grichuk would likely move into part-time roles with a new club and lose their fantasy relevance