Two-Start Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball: Week 7(9/7-9/13)

Two-start pitchers have been a messy situation to track this season with postponed games, schedule changes, and many players hitting the Injured List. Starts have changed from finishing this article one night to publishing the next morning. The moral of the story is, expect the unexpected.

I have worked on a formula that ranks two-start pitchers incorporating three factors that I think are effective when determining who you should start or sit. Team wRC+(versus left-handed or right-handed pitching) for both the season and the last 14 days are incorporated to show which teams have been hot recently. Ballpark factors(wOBA), and the starting pitchers xFIP are also used to rank the two-start pitchers. For ballpark factors, I am using Derek Carty’s “The Bat Park Factors.” These statistics are helpful when looking to determine which two-start pitchers are viable starts.

It is also important to note that just because a pitcher will make two starts does not make that pitcher more valuable than a single start pitcher. In a weekly head-to-head league, two bad starts will likely cost you in the ratio categories.

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Two-Start Pitchers Tier Description:

Must-Start: These pitchers are no doubters for the week. You should start most of these pitchers every time they pitch.

Should-Start: Two-start pitchers in the should-start tier are good options for the week but may have some hesitations for different reasons.

Questionable: Two-start pitchers in this tier may be used for deeper leagues but should most likely sit.

Sit: Do not start these pitchers.

*Reminder that this article was published Friday morning; starters for the following week are subject to change.

The * beside player’s names indicates a left-handed pitcher. wRC+ listed are team splits against either right or left-handed pitching.

Week 7 Two-Start Pitchers

Must-Start

• Hyun-Jin Ryu has been dominant over his last six starts. After two shaky starts to begin the season where he allowed eight earned runs in 9 innings, Ryu has been an ace. He is one of the most favorable two-start pitchers for next week with matchups against a Yankees team that has struggled against left-handed pitching and the Mets. You should confidently start Ryu next week, trusting he will continue his dominant performance.

Across his last six starts:

1.32 ERA
1.92 FIP
0.91 WHIP
30% K rate
6% BB rate
59% GB rate
12% SwStr rate

Hyun-Jin Ryu is doing it again.

— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) September 3, 2020

• Mike Clevinger will be a two-start pitcher next week, but this time in a new uniform. While the west can be pretty daunting, Clevinger will get two-starts against Colorado and San Francisco both at home. While the Giants have performed well recently, much of their strong wRC+ was in the series in Coors Field. Clevinger should be a great option next week with his new-look Padres.
• Lance Lynn is coming off a horrible start against the Astros, where he allowed six runs in six innings. He looked rough and allowed two home runs, but overall I would not be concerned. Lynn still finds him sell among the must-start tier of two-start pitchers with decent matchups against the Angels and Athletics.

Should-Start

• Sixto Sanchez has pitched extremely well since being called up to Miami. He is working pitchers well with a five-pitch mix that features a four-seamer that averages 98.5 miles-per-hour. Sixto’s ERA currently sits at 2.37 in 19 innings pitched and the underlying data supports the strong start. Atlanta and Philadelphia are both strong matchups next week, but Sixto has pitched well enough that you should start in both outings next week.
• Zach Eflin nearly found himself as a must-start, two-start pitcher for next week. With starts against the Red Sox and the Marlins, Eflin is set up well for a successful week. While his ERA of 4.10 may not stand out, his FIP of 2.71 and xFIP of 3.02 suggests that he has pitched well and should continue to pitch well moving forward. Eflin’s strikeout percent of 33.3 percent is well above his career average, but underlying data suggests that what Eflin is doing is legit. I would feel comfortable starting Eflin in both outings next week.

Questionable

• Matthew Boyd is working his way back to relevance after a horrible start to the season. He was dropped in many Fantasy leagues, but over his last three starts, Boyd has a 3.52 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 15.1 innings. While those numbers are good, he is a questionable two-start pitcher next week thanks to starts against the Brewers and White Sox. Both teams have hit left-handed pitchers hard recently. Boyd is prone to a blow-up start, and at this point in the season, it is hard to risk that on your Fantasy team.

Sit

Now that you are up to date on two-start pitchers, it is time to talk prospects. Are you struggling to keep up with all the prospect call-ups around the league? Good news! Eric Cross writes a great “Prospects Report” each week to keep you up to date on call-ups and what you can expect from those players. Special thanks to Roster Resource for their “MLB Schedule Grid” which helps make this article possible.

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