Two-Start Pitchers: Week 4(8/17-8/23)

Two-start pitchers have been a messy situation to track this season with postponed games, schedule changes, and many players hitting the Injured List. Starts have changed from finishing this article one night to the next morning. The moral of the story is, expect the unexpected.

I have continued working to refine a formula to rank two-start pitchers. I have incorporated three factors that I think are the most effective when looking to determine who you should start or sit. Team wRC+(versus left-handed or right-handed pitching), ballpark factors(wOBA), and the starting pitchers xFIP are all incorporated. Two thousand twenty data will be integrated, as well as 2019, as the season is still new. For ballpark factors, I am using Derek Carty’s “The Bat Park Factors.” These factors are helpful when looking to determine which two-start pitchers are viable starts.

It is also important to note that just because a pitcher will make two starts does not make that pitcher more valuable than a single start pitcher. In a weekly head-to-head league, two bad starts will likely cost you in the ratio categories.

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Two-Start Pitcher’s Tier Description:

Must-Start: These pitchers are no doubters for the week. Most of these two-start pitchers should be started every time they pitch.

Should-Start: Two-start pitchers in the should-start tier are good options for the week but may have some hesitations for different reasons.

Questionable: Two-start pitchers in this tier may be used for deeper leagues but should most likely not be started.

Sit: Do not start these pitchers.

*Reminder that this article was published Friday morning, starters for the following week are subject to change.

Must-Start

• Carlos Carrasco has returned strong in 2020 after being diagnosed with Leukemia last May. He currently has a 3.22 ERA through 22.1 innings with 30 strikeouts. Carrasco looks like the pitcher of old that consistently pitched in the low 3’s ERA. The good news is his strikeouts numbers are up, while the bad news is that he is walking more hitters. Regardless, Carrasco’s xFIP of 3.52 suggests that he will continue to build on his strong start that has been aided by an increased curve and changeup usage. He remains among the best options for two-start pitchers next week as he draws starts with the Pirates and the Tigers.
• Dylan Bundy looks like one of the games best pitchers, striking out 33 percent of batters while walking just 2.8 percent in 28.2 innings. With a 1.57 ERA and 0.63 WHIP, Bundy has looked dominant thanks to increased slider usage. There is likely some regression coming thanks to a .206 BABIP and an 87.9 percent left on-base rate, but even with some regression, Bundy should still be a solid pitcher. His Baseball Savant profile is also quite impressive from a Statcast standpoint. Bundy’s two starts next week are against San Francisco and at Oakland, making him one of the top options. Look for Bundy to continue his hot start.
• Zac Gallen has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his 19 career starts, which is the longest streak in National League history. Gallen is a budding ace, pitching to a 2.74 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 23 innings. His xFIP of 3.32 also looks promising that he will continue his run of success. After a dominant start in Coors Field last time out, Gallen is a pitcher that I would recommend starting every time out. He is a top two-start pitcher next week with outings against Oakland and in San Francisco.
• Julio Urias is probably the most questionable of the two-start pitchers in this tier. He has pitched well in his three starts, averaging five innings per start. Outside of his 2.40 ERA, there are some concerning numbers, including a considerable drop in strikeout rate. Interestingly, his FIP of 2.93 suggests that he has performed well, but his 4.83 xFIP predicts he will decline moving forward. I am confidently keeping him the must-start tier because of two favorable matchups with Seattle and Colorado, both at home.

Should-Start

• Nate Pearson dazzled in his MLB debut against the Nationals, not allowing a run in five innings of work. He has fallen off some, looking rough in his last outing against the Marlins, allowing seven runs, but just four earned in 2.1 innings. Outings like this are to be expected, though, especially from a young rookie like Pearson. He gets two favorable matchups next week, on the road in both Baltimore and Tampa Bay. While there may be some hesitation, I would expect Pearson to settle back in nicely with these two-starts.
• Masahiro Tanaka had a scary incident in summer camp, taking a line drive to head, delaying his season debut. The excellent news, Tanka has recovered and been reliable in his 11.2 innings so far this season. He has a 2.31 ERA and his strikeout percent is close to his career average after a down 2019. Among two-start pitchers, Tanaka has two favorable matchups with the Rays and Mets.

Questionable

• Kyle Freeland is off to a solid start in 2020 after disappointing in 2019. While a 93.8 left on-base percent and a .230 BABIP suggest regression is coming, Freeland has a 2.45 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through 25.2 innings. Despite poor strikeout numbers, Freeland gets the job done by inducing a 58.7 percent ground ball rate. I do not expect Freeland to be a sub-three ERA pitcher, but he should still have a solid season. Unfortunately, he finds himself among the questionable two-start pitchers due to matchups at Houston and the Dodgers. I would not recommend starting him this week unless you are desperate for innings.
• Zach Eflin is coming off an interesting but impressive start, where he allowed four runs but struck out ten hitters. In two starts this season, Eflin has a 3.60 ERA with an impressive 1.99 xFIP that suggests he should perform better moving forward. More impressively, Eflin has performed well considering his .375 BABIP and a low 68.9 percent strand rate. I do not expect the strikeout numbers to sustain as Eflin’s strikeout rate is nearly double his career average. He is close to moving up to the start range given his starts at Boston and Atlanta. The Red Sox have struggled, and the Braves could still be without Acuña and Albies.
• David Peterson has been a pleasant surprise for a Mets team desperate for starting pitching. Peterson’s most recent start against the Nationals brought his ERA down to 2.91 while striking out 17 batters in 21.2 innings. The overall numbers have been excellent, and I like Peterson for his next start against the Marlins. The biggest concern is his matchup against the Yankees next week, who hit left-handed pitching hard. For the Yankees matchup alone, Peterson finds himself among the questionable two-start pitchers.

Sit

• Matthew Boyd, unfortunately, should not be owned in most Fantasy leagues. I apologize to all the “Boyd boys,” including myself, who have been disappointed by Boyd. No, I do not think he will have a ten ERA for the rest of the season. But, I also do not think Boyd will have time to get back on track. After the back-to-back start of allowing seven earned runs, you cannot risk starting Boyd this week. He gets two-starts against the White Sox and the Indians, both on the road. Sadly, you can drop Boyd.

Be sure to check back every Friday to get the following week’s two-start pitcher report.

For now, be sure to check out Eric Cross’s updated Top 500 Dynasty Rankings.

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