You can almost feel the intensity ramp up in the world of golf. With only 9 days until The Masters tees off, most golf fans already have their eyes on golf’s biggest event of the year. I may have one eye on the Scottie Scheffler vs LIV showdown, but my other eye refuses to overlook The Valero Texas Open. This often-forgotten event does not have a very friendly schedule, as many of the Tour’s best will take this week off to prepare for Augusta.
That being said, this year’s roster is certainly the most talented field in recent history. Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, and Jordan Spieth have all elected to use The Valero as preparation for The Masters. On top of the solid field, The Valero Texas Open offers a few intriguing storylines. Most importantly, the winner this week qualifies for next week in Augusta, which will add extra pressure on Sunday. Also coming on Sunday is the most treasured prize on Tour… the cowboy boots. Not only will the winner of The Valero take home a Masters invite, but they’ll be doing so in some extremely stylish, black leather cowboy boots. How fabulous!
The Course: Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio
The Oaks Course challenges golfers in a few distinct ways. For one, it is a fairly long course that requires some longer iron accuracy with approach shots. And even if players are accurate with these irons, they’ll face some challenging and undulating greens to secure those birdie chances. Scoring chances on Par 5s will be scarcer than typical, as most players will have to lay up and opt for a wedge on their 3rd shot. Greens in regulation will be noticeably lower than the Tour average, so scrambling will be a key to success.
Finally, the wind. As with many Texas courses, wind can be a major factor in scoring levels. While the forecast does not look like it will reach the typical 30-40 mph this course can see, the wind is expected to be around 15 to 20 mph the entire weekend. The wind coupled with the distance and difficult greens should produce a lower-than-average winning score, somewhere around -15.
Best Bets: Valero Texas Open
Ludvig Aberg (+1200)
I like Ludvig Aberg to tear TPC San Antonio up for a few reasons. The first has actually nothing to do with his game, but more with his competition. Many stars have truly used this event as a swing tune-up, primarily focused on practicing in-tournament play rather than focusing on winning the event. With Ludvig’s age and competitiveness, he’ll want to win more than the guys around him.
Regardless of who’s actually trying to win the tournament, Aberg’s game can compete with anyone in the world. He’s a top ball-striker who has also found some serious consistency in his short game. Ludvig also seemingly elevates his game when the fields get tougher, which may garner a bet next week. His T2 at Pebble and 8th at The Players shows his ability to compete at big stages.
Ludvig Aberg has been a winning machine his entire career, and I will continue to bet on him until books respect his elite game. While I was disappointed in the 12-1 number this week, I do not want to miss him showing his pedigree this early in his career. He has always been a winner and will continue to be a winner.
Rickie Fowler (+10000, Top 10 +900)
I was absolutely SHOCKED to see Rickie Fowler with odds this low. His current form is not the best (which I will get to later) but currently stands at 80-1 to win The Masters next week. You’re telling me The Masters is easier to win than The Valero Texas Open??
To be honest, I would have bet Fowler at anything higher than 50-1. And that’s because there’s 1 of 2 ways Rickie’s career could go from this point on. The 35-year-old’s current form is statistically his worst since turning professional in 2010. He could either further the descent of his career, or rebound like he did last season. And there’s nowhere better to turn it around than TPC San Antonio.
Rickie has 3 finishes inside the Top 20 in the 4 times he’s played here. His recent struggles have been with ball striking, and historically, he has struck the ball very, very well in San Antonio. To make it even better, his putter has been returning to good form in 2024. At 100/1, Rickie could definitely get the job done and regain his form heading to Augusta for the first time since 2020. If the historical fluctuation of his form is any indication, Rickie Fowler will return to better form very soon, and with that, lower odds. I would not be surprised if this is the last time we see his odds in the triple digits for a long time… You won’t want to miss out!