Welcome back to Money Makers and Heart Breakers for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. Each week I will cover NFL DFS picks for the main slate on Sundays. You will find deep analysis on why players will win you money and why other players will definitely break your heart.
Week 1 is always the toughest article to write for the season as in many cases we do not know how the off-season changes will affect what teams have success with this coming season. The fun part is we get to find out starting this week. I am going to keep this intro short and dive into the NFLS DFS picks now in Money Makers and Heart Breakers.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
Week 1 NFL DFS Money Makers💰
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield
Week one Bakers get to start cooking against the Commanders (see what I did there). He is undrafted in most redraft leagues, which is sad. He is priced nicely in DFS which makes me happy. It makes me happy because Mayfield gets to pass to wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Last season he finished as the overall 10th highest scoring quarterback in fantasy. Let’s also factor in that the Commanders gave up the most points to quarterbacks last year and didn’t get significantly better on defense. 280 yards or so and 2 touchdowns would basically do it here.
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,200 on FanDuel
Josh Allen
Do you know who lost his top 2 receivers from last season? The guy is still a high-end quarterback. He also gets to play against the Cardinals’ bottom 5 defense against the pass. Josh Allen is this guy. I think we can expect Allen to throw a couple of touchdowns, he may even run one in. The question we really have isn’t if Allen will produce but more which wide receiver will benefit the most. If you want to go all the way up in price, do it with Allen.
$8,000 on DraftKings
$9,200 on FanDuel
Tua Tagovailoa
The knock on Tua is that he doesn’t produce against tough defenses. Guess what? In Week 1 that won’t matter because the Jaguars defense gave up the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. This super-fast offense got even faster over the off-season. The Dolphins will be so much fun to watch in Week 1… unless of course, you are a Jaguars fan. Then you will hate watching this offense in Week 1.
$7,000 on DraftKings
$7,700 on FanDuel
Other Quarterback DFS Picks for Week 1
- Gardiner Minshew
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel - Russell Wilson
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,900 on FanDuel - Jayden Daniels
$5,700 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
Running Backs
James Cook
So, if you thought I liked Josh Allen’s outlook for Week 1, then you have to realize I love James Cook in Week 1 as well. The Cardinals gave up the most fantasy points to RBs in 2023. Cook had 10 double-digit fantasy games last season. He caught 44 passes. Running backs got it done through the air and on the ground last season against this Cardinals team. James is looking to get Cooking in Week 1. (two stupid cooking jokes in 1 article so far)
$6,900 on DraftKings
$7,600 on FanDuel
Javonte Williams
The Seahawks gave up the second most fantasy points to RBs in 2023. Williams is an entire season removed from his knee surgery. What was a 3-headed running-back-by-committee is now down to 2. Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. I have liked Williams all off-season to come in and produce this year. This is a 100 total yards and a TD type of game. Start Javonte with confidence in Week 1.
$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,100 on FanDuel
Kenneth Walker
The Broncos gave up an average of 118 yards on the ground last season. They gave up the third most fantasy points to running backs for the season. Walker had a total combined yards of 1164 last season and scored 9 touchdowns. Plug him in and watch him roll in Week 1 if you want consistent play. We all love floor play. Good floor play is the best way to get your season going.
$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,400 on FanDuel
Other Running Back DFS Picks for Week 1
- Rachaad White
$6,300 on DraftKings
$7,700 on FanDuel - Joe Mixon
$6,600 on DraftKings
$7,300 on FanDuel - Alvin Kamara
$6,700 on DraftKings
$7,100 on FanDuel
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans
Mike Evans has 10 straight 1000-yard seasons. In 2023 he totaled 79 receptions on 136 targets for 1255 yards and 13 touchdowns. He had a 24% target share last season and a whopping 40% of the air yards. Meanwhile, the Commander gave up the second most fantasy points to wide receivers. Stack these Buccaneers high in Week 1.
$7,300 on DraftKings
$7,900 on FanDuel
Davante Adams
The Raiders play the Chargers in Week 1. The Chargers were the 4th worst defense against wide receivers in 2023. For me this is a volume based play. Adams had a 33% target share in 2023. Lots of targets against a bad defense leads to great fantasy numbers for a guy this good. Minshew can and will get him the ball.
$7,600 on DraftKings
$7,500 on FanDuel
Justin Jefferson
The Chargers were bad against the pass last season, the Giants were just bad against the pass in 2023. Jefferson has 4 straight 1000 yards season to start his career. Jefferson is quarterback proof; he produces no matter who is throwing the ball to him. He is simply that good. The guy got that 1000 yards last season in 10 games. 27% target share and 40% of the air yards means the volume will be there. Don’t overthink this one. Fish don’t fry in the kitchen and beans don’t burn on the grill, took a whole lot of targets for Justin to get up that hill.
$8,400 on DraftKings
$9,000 on FanDuel
Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 1
- Malik Nabers
$5,900 on DraftKings
$6,300 on FanDuel - DJ Moore
$6,500 on DraftKings
$6,900 on FanDuel - Ja’Lynn Polk
$3,900 on DraftKings
$4,800 on FanDuel
Tight Ends
Noah Fant
Denver gave up the most fantasy points to tight ends in 2023. Tight ends averaged 6 receptions for 64 yards and close to a touchdown a game against the Broncos. Fant is not a bad receiver. If you are looking for an inexpensive tight end with a path to production in Week 1, Fant is that guy.
$4,000 on DraftKings
$5,000 on FanDuel
Hunter Henry
Jacoby Brissett tends to target his tight ends. The Bengals were the second-worst defense against tight ends in 2023. Henry has produced in the past well when targeted. Are you picking up what I am putting down here? Brissett will look for Henry, the Patriots are not so good and will throw the ball. Oh, Henry looks good in Week 1.
$4,200 on DraftKings
$4,900 on FanDuel
Taysom Hill
The Buff Gazelle is back. People hate him in fantasy circles because he plays so many positions and isn’t really a tight end. I say give me the fantasy points. Hill finished as the overall tight end 10 last season. He is expected to have an expanded role in the offense as Alvin Kamara was not good in the red zone. Look for hill to get carries, catch passes and be involved in this Saints offense this season. It starts Week 1. Go get some Taysom today!
$4,300 on DraftKings
$5,500 on FanDuel
Other Tight End DFS Picks for Week 1
- Evan Engram
$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,200 on FanDuel - Zach Ertz
$3,600 on DraftKings
$4,800 on FanDuel
DEF
Bengals
NFL Defenses scored the third most fantasy points in 2023 against the Patriots. Guess what? The Patriots didn’t get all that much better on offense over the off season. The Bengals get to play the Patriots at home in Week 1
$3,800 on DraftKings
$4,800 on FanDuel
Vikings
The Vikings get to play the Giants in Week 1. The Giants offense is not so great. They gave up the second most points to fantasy defense in 2023. The Vikings look like a very good play in Week 1.
$3,600 on DraftKings
$5,000 on FanDuel
Bears
Do you think the Titans are good? I think the Titans may be the worst offense in the NFL. At least entering Week 1. It is possible that the Titans will prove me wrong. Although it is unlikely that they will. I like the Bears to dominate the Titans in Week 1.
$3,400 on DraftKings
$4,000 on FanDuel
Week 1 NFL DFS Heart Breakers💔
Quarter Backs
Derek Carr
In 2023 the Panthers gave up the least amount of fantasy points to quarterbacks. It was because the Panthers are easier to run on. I expect great things from Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill this week. Thise things may or may not help Derek Carr. Easy guy to avoid this week. Sometimes we take the easy path.
Dak Prescott
What do we know about Dak Prescott? We know he is an excellent quarterback. We also know he is much better at home in Dallas than he is on the road. In Week 1 he has to travel to play the Browns in Cleveland. The Browns are a top 5 defense against the pass. Road game, against a tough defense. This is called mitigating your risk. Avoid Dak Week 1.
Kyler Murray
Bills are tough on quarterbacks. They were a top 6 team at defending quarterbacks last season. I love Kyler. The Cardinals offense is great. I don’t like Murray this week. Play him in season long if you have him. Avoid him in DFS.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson
I would imagine this Robinson will have some good games in 2024. I do not think that will happen in Week 1. The Buccaneers are tough on running backs. The Tampa Bay defense was the third toughest in 2023. I am out on Robinson and Austin Ekeler in Week 1. Jayden Daniels will be throwing the ball this week.
Najee Harris
The Falcons defense is actually good, and good against the run. It appears Harris is splitting time with Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson. I will pass on taking a guy in 3 headed running back by committee in Week 1 thank you. You should pass by this guy in DFS as well. I want to see how this backfield pans out prior to playing any of them in DFS.
Deandre Swift
I am not a Swift guy and never was. I expect the Bears to use multiple running backs. Believe it or not, the Titans are good at stopping the run and defending running backs. This is a good week to play DJ Moore. Deandre will not look Swift this week.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave
The Panthers are so easy to run against you don’t throw the ball. The Panthers appeared to have the third toughest defense against wide receivers in 2023. I believe I covered this with Carr as well. If you Olave in season long play him. Don’t sign up for potential pain in DFS though,
George Pickens
If Pickens is going to do it against the Falcons he will need all kinds of volume. The Falcons defense has already been mentioned once in this article because they are good. They are susceptible to the deep ball so please don’t take this as the strongest take I have ever had. Pickens could have a good game if he can break one. I am not betting on that in DFS.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Bills are a top-10 defense against the pass. Harrison is a dynamic rookie who will be good. Typically, rookies get better as the season progresses. I am not rolling the dice on Harrison in Week 1. Easy pass for me here.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki
Believe it or not, the Patriots were good at some things in 2023. They were the toughest defense against tight ends. I do not expect Gesicki to take on all the targets others do. Look to Andrei Iosivas to pick up the Tyler Boyd role here, not Gesicki. Sometimes this is super easy and this is one of those times.
Jake Ferguson
Ferguson is the second option in the Cowboys passing offense. I literally tried to get him on my redraft teams. The Browns were the second toughest defense against tight ends in 2023. The Browns are overall tough against the pass in general.
“Now go sit in the corner and think about your life” – Jake the Dog from Adventure Time
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Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and analysis!