Back by popular demand (just trust me on that) it is another season of my NFL Player Prop column! Each week I will select three of my favorite prop bets from around the league. Last year, I shook off a rough first half of the season to finish the year at 26-18. Hopefully this time around we can stay ahead of the curve without the early pitfalls. Before I get to the Week 1 NFL player props, a couple of reminders for those itching for some action. First and foremost, always bet responsibly and budget accordingly. If you have a finite amount of money you use for betting, do not blow it in one week. And certainly not in Week 1. Though I am quite confident in these picks, the NFL changes week to week, much less year to year.
Also, make sure you access multiple sportsbooks if possible. This is necessary for price-shopping purposes. Price is often just as big a factor in whether I play a prop as that player’s matchup is. I may take a prop at +100 that I would not take at -150. For every two props you lose at -150, you have to win three to break even. Compare that to a +100 prop, which is a 50-50 proposition. If you hit three out of five, you are now up one unit instead of even. These prices will change between now and Sunday, so keep these things in mind before placing any wagers. Thank you for attending my Ted Talk and let’s get to the props!
NFL Week 1 Player Props
Hunter Henry OVER 2.5 Receptions (-130 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
My first Week 1 NFL player prop is a bet on Hunter Henry to catch at least three passes. There are a few reasons I like this prop. The Cincinnati Bengals ceded the most receptions to opposing tight ends last year. They gave up a total of 105 catches to the position. That is over six receptions per game. We only need Henry to hit half of that to cash this prop. Henry caught at least three balls in eight of 14 games last year. The Patriots have a new-look quarterback room in 2024. Gone are Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. In are veteran Jacoby Brissett and rookie Drake Maye. Brissett has been named the starter for this game, which brings me to the next reason I like Henry’s reception prop.
Brissett loves to check down and feed his tight ends. In his last stint as a starter in 2022, Brissett made 11 starts for the Cleveland Browns. He targeted tight ends David Njoku and Harrison Bryant a combined 85 times in those games. And each tight end missed two separate games during that stretch of the season. A negative game script may come into play in this game as well. New England is the biggest underdog in Week 1 based on current odds. If they fall behind as expected, Brissett may be forced to throw the ball more than normal. The Patriots have a very thin receiving corps, so Henry should be targeted quite a bit in this game. I believe he will catch at least three passes from Brissett on Sunday.
Tony Pollard OVER 9.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tony Pollard will look to put a frustrating 2023 behind him when he makes his first appearance as a Tennessee Titan on Sunday. Pollard and incumbent Tyjae Spears will look to fill the gap vacated by the departure of Derrick Henry. New offensive coordinator Nick Holz has stated that he anticipates a 50-50 split between the two running backs. That ambiguity has led to low receiving bars for both Titans’ running backs to clear on Sunday. Pollard’s receiving yardage line is 9.5, while Spears’ sits at 14.5My pick is Pollard because I do think he will see a bit more work overall than Spears. Besides, his player prop is a lower total and at a better price. Having said that, I believe both are viable given what should be a very favorable matchup.
The Chicago Bears gave up more receiving yards to running backs than any team in the NFL last season. And it was not particularly close. Chicago surrendered 1003 receiving yards out of the backfield in 2023, good for 59 yards per contest. No other team allowed more than 45.4 receiving yards to opposing running backs last year. While the Bears have a new defensive coordinator, head coach Matt Eberflus should still call the shots defensively. Even if the Bears stiffen a bit in this facet of their defense, 10 receiving yards is too low for me to pass up. Henry cleared this number in 10 games last season, and he is hardly known for his pass-catching skills. Pollard also cleared this number 11 times last year in what was an injury-plagued campaign.
Preseason usage can be tricky when it comes to projecting how a team will utilize a player. But I believe it is worth noting that Pollard caught multiple passes in both of his preseason appearances. I think that says a lot considering he did not even play much overall in either outing. The Titans will be on the road in this game and should try to ease quarterback Will Levis into action with some easy throws. Levis targeted running backs on 23.3 percent of throws in road games last year. I project Levis for 30 throws, which would equate to seven targets to his backs. Even if Pollard only gets two or three of those, he should surpass this total. Pollard has averaged 5.8 receiving yards per target over his NFL career. I am taking the Over on Tony Pollard’s Week 1 receiving yardage prop.
Chase McLaughlin OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made (-110, MGM)
My final Week 1 NFL player prop may seem a bit off the beaten path. I am betting on Tampa Bay kicker Chase McLaughlin to make at least two field goals in this game. The Buccaneers are hosting the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon. This marks the NFL debut of number two overall draft pick Jayden Daniels. Daniels has plenty of long-term upside, but I think he could struggle on Sunday. No rookie quarterback has won a Week 1 start since Sam Darnold in 2018. Tampa Bay is a slight favorite, and I expect them to win this game. The reason I mention this is I believe there is a correlation play. Last year, McLaughlin made multiple field goals in eight of Tampa Bay’s nine victories. He accomplished the same feat in half of the team’s eight losses.
I also like this prop from a schematic standpoint. Washington was awful defensively a season ago. As a result, they made sweeping changes both on and off the field. Dan Quinn is the new head coach, and the Commanders are only returning four defensive starters. It will likely take a while for this unit to gel. Because of that, I expect a lot of base looks and a “bend, don’t break” style out of Washington early in the year. Tampa Bay was 27th in touchdown percentage in the red zone last year. Per Rich Hribar, Baker Mayfield had the second-worst red zone fantasy points total vs. expectation. At the same time, he only threw one red zone interception last year. I expect Washington to hold up enough in scoring territory to force multiple short field goal attempts in this game.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and analysis!