This is going to be the beginning of an exciting journey. The hope and intention is that we spend the next 18 weeks surviving together. I’ll try not to spend our time together with more dad jokes, but I can’t make any promises. It truly is all about the picks though, and in that department, we are all set. The beginning of the NFL season is one of the most exciting times of the year, and the same can be said for our Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks. By the same token though, it might also be one of the most stressful.
Let’s Get Started
Some teams are clearly better than others. We have a good idea of who the potential playoff teams are expected to be playing deep into January. But guess what, what we think will happen is only bound to not happen. We are just setting ourselves up for stress and disappointment. So much for football being a diversion.
And the last thing anyone wants to happen is to be eliminated from their survivor pool after the first week.
Let’s face it; the prize money is spent. Everyone sees a clear path for themselves to be the last man standing. That is the way things should be and it’s part of the fun. But making survivor picks is not easy.
I know what are you thinking, this guy hasn’t given us one survivor pick yet, and here he is hedging. That is fair, but we have to begin with honesty. A lot can happen in the 60 minutes of an NFL game and every team generally finds their way to a few victories. Surprises will happen. Things will happen through the course of the 2024 NFL season that many didn’t see coming.
These survivor picks cast a wide net, and that will be consistent each week. The hope is to keep all four lines moving forward each week, and the picks will be provided in order of preference. Additionally, we will have one team to fade each week. Now, it’s time to dig into those survivor picks.
Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks
In a lot of cases, Week 1 of the season is still the preseason for most players, so expect some rust. Teams haven’t really shown much this summer. Turnover, both on the field and in the coaches booth is prevalent across the league. With that being said, there are no excuses here, so it’s time to jump in. As the weeks go on, we will more trends and statistics to work with. There are no spreads higher than 7.5 points this week, and a lot of low scoring games are also expected. In short, anything can happen.
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams – Detroit -3.5
We have to wait until primetime for this one as it is a homecoming for Matthew Stafford. Detroit is one team that, rightfully so, has received a fair amount of buzz and excitement entering the 2024 season.
It’s no surprise that this is the highest-scoring game expected on Sunday with an over/under of 50.5 points. A lot of that is due to the success of Jared Goff after he threw for 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns last season. Not only does Detroit return their whole offense, but a healthy Jameson Williams is expected to take the next step. That could be the difference for a Lions team that lit up the scoreboard in 2023.
It’s also a playoff rematch after the Lions were victorious by a single point in January. Ultimately, this comes down to Goff being better against the Rams’ defense than Stafford is against the Lions’ defense.
Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans – Chicago -4
Welcome to the Caleb Williams era in Chicago. Not only that, the Bears also added D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze to their offense. That is a lot of firepower and a lot of excitement.
On the Titans side, Will Levis opens the season in the starting role after playing to mixed results last year. While he now has Calvin Ridley to throw to, things look very different in Tennessee’s backfield. It will be interesting to see how things go with Derrick Henry in Baltimore as the Titans look to find their new offensive identity.
The thought process here is that playing at home and backed by a strong defense, Chicago’s new offense leads them to victory.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos – Seattle -6
Last year was absolutely brutal for the Broncos. With a rookie quarterback to begin the 2024 season and Jerry Jeudy now in Cleveland, things might not immediately improve. Beginning your NFL career in Seattle also might not be the best introduction for Bo Nix.
While the Seahawks do have a new coach, their offense remains intact. With an offensive coordinator that should help to improve, or enhance, Geno Smith, Seattle will be competitive. In Week 1, it likely will be too much for Nix and the Broncos to overcome even if this isn’t the same Seahawks team and defense of a few years ago.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots – Bengals -7.5
I know, real creative, right? Just go with the highest spread of the week. But why shouldn’t we attempt to play it safe? The Bengals are a strong team, but not truly good enough that I have an issue burning them in Week 1. And in what is a clear transitory year in New England, targeting the Patriots is expected to be a common theme.
Joe Burrow is back and healthy. Even with Ja’Marr Chase’s status still left to be determined, the Bengals still have enough weapons for Burrow to do some damage. Carving up the Patriots defense shouldn’t be an issue for Burrow. And with Jacoby Brissett under center for New England, their offense shouldn’t put up too much of a fight.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and analysis!
Line 1
Cincinnati
Line 2
Seattle
Line 3
Chicago
Line 4
Detroit
Week 1 NFL Survivor Fade
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals – Bills -6.5
The fact that the Cardinals are traveling east for an early start matters less to me for Week 1. With an over/under of 48.5 points, a fair amount of offense is expected, and Arizona shouldn’t be overlooked.
While Josh Allen is clearly one of the best, if not the best quarterback in the league, Kyler Murray deserves some attention too. He isn’t in the top-tier conversation, but Murray is a top-1o quarterback who is now fully healthy after returning to action last season. Murray showed flashes of success in 2023, but he now has a fancy new weapon in the form of Marvin Harrison Jr.
On the other side of the field, Stefon Diggs is in Houston and Gabe Davis is now a Jaguar. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel were solid additions, but there might be an adjustment period. The Bills are also without an injured Matt Milano in the middle of their defense. Buffalo is the better team, but Arizona should not be overlooked. Plus, don’t you want to use the Bills in one of their two games against the Patriots this year?