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Week 10 Fantasy Football Risers, Fallers, and the Hot Seat

With just five more weeks left in the fantasy football regular season, I want the Week 10 risers and fallers list to have more of an emphasis on schedule. In addition to the role and production of these risers and fallers, who they go up against over the next few weeks is just as, if not more important. The path to the playoffs is tougher for some than others. Knowing which players can make the path clearer with their upcoming schedule could be the key to earning a spot

Matchups matter. Availability matters. There are 20 NFL teams that will have their respective bye week across four of the next five weeks. I’ll be taking it all into consideration with the Week 10 risers, fallers, and player on the hot seat. Before you dive in, feel free to review my Week 9 risers, fallers, and the player on the hot seat that I named before last weekend.

Week 10 Risers, Fallers, and a Player on the Hot Seat

Risers

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants

Tracy has running back rush shares of 69.5% or more in four of his last five games. That’s in part to filling in for Devin Singletary while he nursed an injury at the beginning of October. Since returning from injury, Devin Singletary has played just 58 offensive snaps over three games. Tracy’s 127 snaps over that time is more than double Singeltary’s. More importantly, when looking at opportunities (carries + targets) out of the backfield, Tracy’s workload outweighs Singeltary’s 49 to 18. Over the last two games, Tracy has logged 36 carries to Singletary’s nine.  This is looking like Tyrone Tracy’s backfield for the remainder of the 2024 season.

Moving forward, despite a Week 11 bye, Tracy has arguably the best schedule amongst all running backs to get you to the playoffs. His other four matchups for the remainder of the fantasy football regular season are against defenses that all currently rank inside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to the position. That includes the Carolina Panthers in Week 10, who allow the most. The best time to acquire Tyrone Tracy for a playoff push was before you started reading this. The next best time to acquire this fantasy football riser is right now.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

If Mike Gesicki is available in your league, and you need a tight end, please stop reading and go pick him up now.

Okay. Now that you’re back, or if you have him already, Gesicki is a major Week 10 riser for fantasy football. There’s a good chance he’s a steady starter for the remainder of the season, as well. A lot of this has to do with the absence of Tee Higgins. In four games without Higgins this season, Gesicki leads Ja’Marr Chase in receiving yards (282/194), air yards (239/182), and total Points Per Receptions points (61.2/51.4). More specifically to Gesicki himself, he has no less than five receptions or 73 yards in each of his last three games without Tee Higgins. In Week 9, Mike Gesicki caught five passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns.

On a short week, it looks like Tee Higgins be absent for Week 10 on Thursday Night Football. Gesicki is a major Week 10 riser against the Baltimore Ravens. While they’ve allowed just one touchdown to a tight end this season, they rank fifth in total receptions (52) and third in total receiving yards (608) allowed to the position.

With an extra chunk of time before their Week 11 matchup, it’s possible we see Tee Higgins return by then. However, there’s a chance we don’t see him until Week 13, either, at the earliest. The Bengals have a Week 12 bye. If they lose Week 10, and drop to 4-6, it’s possible Higgins delays his return if he’s not 100%, especially since he’s set to be a free agent this off-season. Mike Gesicki should be on rosters until further notice. He will continue to be a riser in Tee Higgins’ absence.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets

The combined record of the Jets’ next four opponents, between Week 10 and Week 15, is 15-20. The season up until this point hasn’t gone as well as they’d hoped it would. While they’re four games behind the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, there is a chance the 3-6 Jets could go on a run. If you believe in such a thing, then investing in Aaron Rodgers for a fantasy football playoff push is in play.

Before their Week 12 bye, the Jets will face the Arizona Cardinals and Indianapolis Colts. They rank sixth and fifth respectively in total passing yards allowed this season. Then, in the last two games of the fantasy football regular season, Weeks 13 and 14, Rodgers gets the Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins. While Seattle ranks 11th in passing yards allowed, Miami ranks 31st. However, the Dolphins defense faced quarterbacks such as Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, and Anthony Richardson early on this season. Over their last two games, against Kyler Murray and Josh Allen, the Dolphins allowed 542 combined passing yards and five total passing touchdowns.

All-in-all, Rodgers is a Week 10 riser as he prepares for a much better schedule than he faced in his first eight games this season. All eight of his matchups were against defenses that rank in the bottom-half of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, half of which rank in the bottom-10. Rodgers will look to build off of his 20.34 points from Week 9 in Week 10. Considering his weapons in the passing game, support from Breece Hall in the run game against weaker run defenses, as well, and his schedule, Rodgers is a riser nobody wants to acknowledge at a time when it matters most.

More Quick Hitting Risers

Bo Nix continues to rack up points running the ball. He is now fifth in rush attempts (58), fourth in rushing yards (295), and second in rushing touchdowns (4) amongst quarterbacks. The majority of Nix’s schedule is fantasy friendly. That’s especially true after a Week 10 away game in Kansas City against the Chiefs. Stream Nix down the stretch if needed.

Cedric Tillman is tied for the second-most targets (32) over the last three weeks. That’s three games without Amari Cooper on the Cleveland Browns and, more recently, two games with Jameis Winston as his quarterback. Tillman passes the eye test and can still produce in a volume-based role despite a brutal schedule after his Week 10 bye.

James Conner is a long-term riser for the remainder of this fantasy football season. After facing the Jets in Week 10 and a Week 11 bye, Conner is all systems go. Four of his five matchups post-bye are against defenses that rank inside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Conner has 100+ all-purpose yards or a touchdown in seven of nine games this season. Just in case, stash his handcuff, rookie Trey Benson, with all of this in mind.

Fallers

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

I’m including Chuba Hubbard on the Week 10 fallers list because rookie running back Jonathon Brooks is finally on the 53-man roster. I actually wrote this piece before Hubbard’s four-year, $33 million extension was announced. Obviously that news has an impact on dynasty leagues, but for the remainder of the 2024 season, I’m lower on Hubbard, however slight, than I was throughout the first half.

It’s unclear how involved Brooks will be so it’s unclear how much of a faller Hubbard even is. The Panthers will travel to Germany in Week 10 to face the New York Giants. This is a favorable matchup for opposing running backs as the Giants are one of seven teams to allow over 1,000 rushing yards to the position this season. They’ve allowed an average of 112 per game. With the expectation of easing Brooks in, if he’s even active in Week 10, Hubbard is still worthing starting.

The Panthers then have a Week 11 bye. Four of the Panthers’ remaining six games after their bye are against defenses that rank inside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs. That includes each of their fantasy football playoff matchups from Weeks 15 through 17. Out of the bye, however, they face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12 then the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14 to end the fantasy football regular season. They both rank as bottom-three teams in points allowed.

You may not even be competing in your league’s playoffs when the Panthers’ schedule becomes more favorable. If you are, Jonathon Brooks may be more involved by then, as well. Week 10 could the last game of Hubbard’s steady RB2 production with RB1 upside this season. He’s the RB19 with an average of 15.3 points per game. Hopefully managers will have some clarity as to who between Hubbard and Brooks is the best player to start when playoffs role around. Brooks is a rookie second round pick and the first running selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.

It’s worth noting head coach Dave Canales has set his intentions on establishing a run-first team identity. However, the Panthers have failed to do so with very little leads yielding the just the 27th-most rush attempts per game. If Brooks is full-go sooner than later, then maybe both he and Hubbard can each return flex worthy values. That’s an optimistic outlook.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Xavier Worthy recorded negative fantasy points in Week 9. He did not catch a single pass and logged two carries for -10 rushing yards. This isn’t the biggest reason he’s on the Week 10 fallers list, but it motivated me to put him on it.

The rookie looks to be third, at best, in the pecking order of the Chiefs’ passing game. That’s behind DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce. Even if he isn’t any given week, it’s going to be hard to trust Worthy given the presence of Hopkins. In his second game with the Chiefs, Hopkins played more than double the amount of snaps than he did in his first game. He caught eight of nine targets for 86 yards and two touchdowns, as well.

As for schedule, the Chiefs’ final five games of the fantasy football regular season are as follows: Broncos, at Bills, at Panthers, Raiders, Chargers. All of these teams besides the Panthers rank inside the bottom-eight in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. The Panthers have enough trouble stopping the run and won’t have much of a chance against the Chiefs in Week 12. Worthy’s opportunity to succeed down the stretch may be limited or, at the very least, inconsistent.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins

Mostert is coming off of a game in which he played just 14 offensive snaps. That’s his lowest number of the season. In fact, he’s played more than 50% just once. The good news is he had 10 carries for 88 yards and two receptions for 32 yards.  That’s efficient production on limited touches and snaps. That also means he touched the ball on 85.7% of snaps played.

When healthy, however, De’Von Achane is the top guy in Miami’s backfield. He has 23 more targets than three other running backs or full backs combined this season. Achane has nearly 200 more yards rushing than the next closest running back, as well.

Things won’t get easier for the Dolphins run game. From Weeks 10 through 12, they have favorable matchups against the Rams, Raiders and Patriots. However, if you’re still fighting for a fantasy playoff spot in Week 14 and/or make it, the schedule from that point on is brutal. The Dolphins face the Jets, Texans, 49ers, and Browns. All four are tough against the run and in the back half of teams in points allowed to opposing running backs this season. Especially if the 2-6 Dolphins continue on their losing streak, Mostert could be faded out of this backfield completely in favor of younger players like rookie Jaylen Wright.

More Quick Hitting Fallers

CeeDee Lamb is dealing with a shoulder injury of his own. More importantly, his quarterback, Dak Prescott has a hamstring that could justify him heading to Injured Reserve and possibly missing the remainder of the season. Cooper Rush is the backup quarterback for the Cowboys. He and Lamb have had success before, but Lamb is a faller with a lower ceiling as a result of this situation.

Chris Olave is seeking additional specialist recommendations after his fourth career concussion and second of the season. I normally don’t include injured players on the fallers list, but I think Olave could be a cut candidate. The Saints are 2-7 with an interim head coach. They have to make a decision to extend Olave this upcoming off-season or at least exercise his fifth-year option by May. I’m not entirely confident he plays again in 2024.

James Cook is on my radar as a potential fantasy faller. It doesn’t have much to do with him specifically as it does the success of Ray Davis. On just nine snaps in Week 9, Davis turned six touches in 90 yards and a touchdown. Cook is still seeing his fair share of touches, especially in the passing game, but conceding more work to Davis and even Ty Johsnon any given game. The Bills’ backfield not only has a Week 12 bye, but a few tough matchups against the Chiefs, 49ers, Lions and Jets, the latter two being the fantasy football playoffs, as well.

The Week 10 Hot Seat

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

It might feel unfair to place McCaffrey on the Week 10 hot seat without having taken a snap yet, but that’s exactly why he’s on it. The purpose of this is not to bash McCaffrey himself, especially for working through an injury, but rather the situation as a whole. He was not ruled out for Week 1 until hours before the team’s opener on Monday Night Football. That cause fantasy managers to scramble. McCaffrey has not played since. The coach downplayed the severity of the situation.

The demand fantasy managers have for production from this backfield couldn’t be higher. This backfield is one of the heavier fantasy investments of the season when you consider draft capital and “must-start” labels for the presumed starter any given week. The return on investment overall, and especially as of late, hasn’t been great.

Before exiting Week 8 with a shoulder injury, Jordan Mason had failed to score 10 fantasy points in three games prior. Locked into everyone’s lineups, Mason yielded RB44 numbers of 7.2 fantasy points per game from Week 5 through 8. Isaac Guerendo finished higher as RB39 in that span with 8.3 points per game after thriving as the replacement for an injured Mason in Week 8.

Assuming McCaffrey is active for the 49ers, he’s in your fantasy starting lineup. Period. We just have no idea what to expect for McCaffrey when it comes to workload and production. Overall, there’s potential for a “three headed monster” here. Jordan Mason is practicing in full heading into Week 10 and Isaac Guerendo has proven efficiency on limited touches this season. While I expect McCaffrey to lead the way, all three could see touches.

McCaffrey is the only one of these three running backs worth starting in Week 10 if all three are active. Fantasy managers will demand greatness when it matters most after waiting for his return all season. To get off of the hot seat, McCaffrey will have to prove he’s healthy and the player managers drafted him to be this summer.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!

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