I was able to go a perfect 3-0 last week for the first time in several weeks. My record for the season is now 17-9 overall. As nice as it was to go undefeated last week, there is still plenty of work to be done. That starts now as I reveal my three favorite NFL player props for Week 10. Please remember that the numbers and prices associated with these player props are subject to change. Use your best judgment before placing any wagers.
NFL Player Props for Week 10
Javonte Williams UNDER 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetRivers)
Javonte Williams has gone over this number in five of his last six outings. However, I believe the sportsbooks are sleeping on a couple of key factors regarding this Week 10 NFL player prop. First and foremost is the matchup Williams will face this week. Denver is facing the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 10. Kansas City is allowing an NFL-low 50.9 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this year. In four home games, the only running back that the Chiefs have allowed to go over this number is Derrick Henry. And even he recorded a season-low 48 rushing yards against Kansas City. The Broncos are the biggest underdogs on this week’s board. If this game goes as expected, Denver will not be able to run the ball very often.
To that end, there is a very real possibility that Williams will cede some of the backfield work this week. Among 47 NFL running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Williams has the third-lowest rushing grade per Pro Football Focus and the third-lowest yards per carry before contact. He also ranks in the bottom 10 in both yards per carry and PFF’s elusive rating. Head coach Sean Payton mentioned last week that he wanted to get rookie running back Audric Estime more involved in the offense. That did not come to fruition last week, but it seems to only be a matter of time. This could be the week that Estime takes some touches away from Williams. Overall, this feels like a prime spot to fade Javonte Williams. This number is lower at most sportsbooks, and with good reason. I would still play this down to 37.5.
Younghoe Koo OVER 2.5 Extra Points Made (-115, DraftKings)
My first Week 10 NFL player prop is for Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo to kick at least three extra points against the New Orleans Saints. Kicker bets can be a crapshoot, but I think this play makes a lot of sense given each team’s recent form.
Atlanta’s offense has been one of the best in the NFL in recent weeks. The Falcons have scored at least four touchdowns in four of their last five games. They have done so with a combination of big plays and efficient red zone play. Atlanta has converted all six of their red-zone trips to touchdowns across their last three outings. Those numbers are in direct contrast to how the New Orleans Saints have performed defensively recently. In the last four weeks, the Saints have allowed a total of 14 touchdowns. In that span, they have allowed 11 touchdowns in 14 trips to the red zone.
If you prefer, you can play Koo to score at least eight points or kick multiple field goals. But both of those props are a bit more costly than Koo’s extra points made line. This game will be played in a dome, with the Falcons a four-point favorite. These two factors along with each team’s recent results should provide favorable conditions for Atlanta to end drives with touchdowns, and thus Koo to kick at least three extra points.
Khalil Shakir 50+ Receiving Yards (-150, BetMGM)
Before I get to the logic behind this pick, a quick point about game theory and math. The Over/Under on receiving yards for Khalil Shakir this week is 55.5 on most sportsbooks. The best price I have found for the Over is -110 on Bet365. I am fine playing that number because I like Shakir a lot this week. However, a prop with -110 odds implies a hit rate of 52.38 percent. A prop with -150 odds implies a hit rate of 60 percent. Everyone’s situation is different, so I want to avoid making declarative statements. However, there are a few things each prospective bettor should consider before deciding how he or she wants to play this prop.
First, what are the chances that Khalil Shakir finishes with between 50 and 55 yards? If you think the answer is zero, you should probably play the 55.5 number at -110. If you think that probability exceeds 7.62 percent (the difference in implied probability between the two lines), you may want to play the 50+ line. For what it is worth, Shakir has had between 50 and 55 receiving yards twice this season. There are other factors to consider in this calculus as well. Let’s say you only have access to DraftKings. DraftKings has the over at -120. That implies a hit rate of 54.55. Now the difference between the two implied probabilities is down to 5.45 percent. The lower the difference between the two implied probabilities, the more sense it makes to grab the lower yardage total at the higher price.
The price aspect in all of this is why I cannot say for sure what anyone else should do. Everyone’s bet size (unit size) is different. I track all my player props at one unit (1U) each. That means that I intend to win 1U on each play. The exception is plus-money bets. If a line is +120, I will risk 1U to win 1.2U. In this case, let’s say my unit size is $10, I can either risk $15 to win $10 on Shakir to record 50+ receiving yards, or I can risk $11.50 at -115 to win $10 if Shakir exceeds 55.5 receiving yards. I would rather risk the extra $3.50 for the six-yard buffer given that Shakir has already landed in this range twice in just nine games. Some may disagree with that mindset. Ultimately it is your money and your decision.
Check out all of our Week 10 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
So let’s get to the bet, shall we? Khalil Shakir has had at least 50 receiving yards in three straight games and six of his last seven. The lone exception was a meeting with a New York Jets team that plays a ton of man coverage. Enter the Indianapolis Colts, Shakir’s Week 10 opponent. Indianapolis plays zone coverage on 79 percent of pass plays. That is the third-highest rate in the NFL. Despite that, the Colts struggle mightily in that alignment. Indianapolis ranks in the bottom five in the NFL in several key metrics while playing zone coverage. That includes a 9.1 yards per coverage target allowed mark. Shakir excels in zone coverage. He averages 2.77 yards per route run against zone coverage this year.
That number has held steady at 2.74 in the two games that Amari Cooper has played in. Even if Cooper returns to the lineup this week, Shakir should be plenty involved. Besides, rookie Keon Coleman will probably miss this game with a wrist injury. Either way, there should be no shortage of targets for Shakir in this game. And the connection between Shakir and Josh Allen is one of the most efficient in the NFL. Shakir has 42 receptions on just 45 total targets this year, including 22 of 24 over the last three weeks. He also has at least 50 receiving yards in all six games in which he has earned at least five targets. All signs point to Shakir surpassing those barriers again in this matchup, making this one of my favorite Week 10 player props.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!