With another week down, let’s keep things going. We have another week of survivor picks on tap for you, so follow along. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. This was another strong week as our picks went 3-1. The pick we were least confident in, the Atlanta Falcons was the only one that ended up on the short side thanks to a surprise performance by Joshua Dobbs. Things will also continue to be difficult with bye weeks still in effect.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 10 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
The return of DeShaun Watson last week doesn’t quite move the needle here. This is especially the case after we saw what Baltimore did to the Seahawks and Geno Smith in Week 9.
Divisional games are always difficult as well, but when it comes to survivor picks for this week, the Ravens are still one of the better options. The margin of error will be thin here as we are dealing with two strong defensive teams. So far this season, the Browns are allowing an average of 17.4 points per game while Baltimore is first at 13.8.
Having Lamar Jackson on offense will ultimately prove to be the difference here. Not including Jackson, the Ravens go three deep at running back after the emergence of Keaton Mitchell. However, the Ravens are healthy offensively and are currently scoring four points per game more than the Browns.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders
Yes, I did watch Seattle get blown out this past week in Baltimore. While I did expect the loss, it was hard to expect things to go that sideways. However, should it really have been that surprising?
The Ravens are a strong team on both sides of the ball are now 7-2 on the season. Playing at home makes them even stronger and the fact that is a 10 AM start for Seattle only made things worse. This week though, things are quite different for the Seahawks.
This week, Seattle returns to the friendly confines of their home field as the Commanders make the cross-country trip. Washington is coming off a close three-point victory against a New England team that is simply not very good this season. The other factor to consider is that both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will seemingly be another week into their recoveries and closer to, if not at, full strength.
While neither team has an especially strong defense from a yardage perspective, Seattle does have the edge as they have allowed six fewer points per game. Washington also traded two key defensive line pieces prior to the trade deadline and those ramifications should be felt this week. It will likely be a tight game, but it’s possible the Seahawks come out with their foot on the gas. If that is the case, it’s difficult to expect Sam Howell to keep up and catch up.
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
As proof that anything can happen on any given Sunday, the Denver Broncos are coming off a victory. It was their third victory of the season, and with Sean Payton on the sidelines, we really shouldn’t be shocked. The fact that it came against the Kansas City Chiefs though does make it a little more interesting. Well, at least until the caveat is added that Patrick Mahomes was very much under the weather.
With that being said, the Broncos are still not an incredibly imposing team. Buffalo is coming off a primetime loss in Cincinnati, and this week they return home for another game under the lights.
Denver’s defense is worst in the league allowing 423 yards per game through eight games. That has also translated to a second-worst 28 points per game allowed. With another week for Josh Allen to get healthier, it is hard not to target the Bills with one of our survivor picks.
At 5-4, it is difficult to say it is a must-win for Buffalo, but it is close. With James Cook averaging 4.69 yards per carry, he is doing a good job of controlling the tempo for the Bills. That should allow the Bills to keep Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense off the field as much as possible.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
At this point in the season, it is huge to have the Dallas Cowboys remaining with our survivor picks. To be honest though, I am getting the sense we will be saying that with whoever is facing the New York Giants the rest of the way.
This season did not exactly get off to the best of starts for the Giants as they were embarrassed by the Cowboys. What is scary though, is that New York’s Week 1 defeat could pale in comparison to what we will see in Week 10. The Giants are left with Tommy DeVito under center, and that is far from ideal. Tyrod Taylor has at least three more weeks left on Injured Reserve while Daniel Jones is out for the season.
Sure, the Giants still have Saquon Barkley, but it’s clear that is where the Cowboys will center their defensive attention. A piecemeal offensive line doesn’t help and there is the possibility New York will be without Evan Neal once again. The fact that the Cowboys also have home-field advantage doesn’t help.
The Cowboys will be looking to avenge a tough loss in Philadelphia from Week 9. Quite simply, the Giants will not be able to match their offensive firepower. To say that this matchup is one-sided would be an understatement.
Games to Fade
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans
Joe Burrow is getting closer to being the quarterback we expected him to be. A large part of that is his health, and Burrow is a lot closer to 100% than he previously was. With that being said, his numbers and performance are still not spectacular even as he comes off a victory against Buffalo.
In what is clearly another rebuilding year on the path toward playoff contention for the Houston Texans, C.J. Stroud has had other ideas. The rookie led the Texans to their fourth victory of the season on Sunday with an insane performance. Stroud set rookie records all over the place as he threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns.
On the defensive side of the ball, Houston has been respectable this season allowing the same number of points on the Bengals. In part due to Burrow’s health, the Texans are actually scoring four more points a game than Cincinnati. The Bengals are the better team, but the gap might not be as far as the seven-point line suggests. This one could easily end up being too close for comfort.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans, Dallas
Line 2
Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City, Miami, Cleveland, Buffalo
Line 3
Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle
Line 4
Baltimore
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