Perhaps this is the universe paying us back for the first few weeks of the season. After all, they do call it a survivor pool, but if you are still making picks, I hope you have enjoyed the last few weeks. I know I certainly have, and I don’t want this ride to stop. Across the board, we nailed our Week 9 picks, but it’s not the time to sit back and relax. Week 10 is now upon us, so let’s continue with the process and look forward. There is no more time to waste, so let’s jump right into our Week 10 NFL Survivor Picks.
How Did We Do in Week 9?
It was a perfect slate across the board in Week 9. Some games were closer than others, and there was some sweating involved, but all ended as expected.
The Denver Broncos traveled across the country with a rookie quarterback to face the Ravens in Baltimore. Bo Nix was coming off one of the best games in his young career after a resounding victory against Carolina. However, at least for one week, that optimism was proven to be short-lived. Baltimore was simply too strong for the Broncos as they rebounded from a tough loss in Cleveland.
After quite the bumpy start to their season, the Cincinnati Bengals have found their groove. Once again, the Las Vegas Raiders proved to be no match for their opponent. Once again, Joe Burrow did his job but he was also greatly helped by Chase Brown’s efforts.
While we certainly had some drama down to the wire, the Kansas City Chiefs managed to remain undefeated. They need overtime to do so, but it was another prime time victory at home for the Chiefs. We do have to give the Tampa Bay Buccaneers credit though as they stuck with the Chiefs enough to give us a good sweat.
Speaking of good sweats, the Jacksonville Jaguars tried to make things interesting. The Philadelphia Eagles jumped out to what looked like it would be a resounding home victory, but the Jaguars attempted to roar back. It was too little too late and led by Saquon Barkley and his acrobatics, Philadelphia secured a victory.
Sometimes you just have to roll with your hunch. I did that with the fade of New Orleans over Carolina, and it got Dennis Allen fired. The Panthers managed to pull out their second victory of the year while New Orleans lost their seventh straight.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Picks
There is still a lot of football left to be played. Let’s keep the success going and the good times rolling. While there are four teams on bye this week, we still have plenty of teams to choose from. However, the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Seattle Seahawks will be on the sidelines.
Each week, we’ll continue to pick four games to target along with one that we are fading. They will be ranked in order of our preference along with the lines that we hope to see building off each other each week. Let’s jump right into those survivor picks. Things are also becoming more difficult as some of our options have already been utilized. That means our first choice might not be necessarily available.
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts – Bills -4
When we get to this point in the season, sometimes there are tough choices to be made. The Bills take a four-game winning streak into Indianapolis to face the Colts on Sunday and they are in position to make it five. Generally, I like to stray towards home teams, but Joe Flacco didn’t look last week. Granted Brian Flores and the Vikings didn’t make things easy for Flacco, but 179 passing yards isn’t going to cut it.
In fairness to the Colts, they do rank 12th overall with 21.4 points allowed per game, but teams are also gaining 400 yards per game. Facing a Buffalo team that ranks fourth with 28.9 points will make things simply too difficult for the Colts to overcome.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Ravens -6
While we did sing the praises of a resurgent Cincinnati team, they run into a tough road matchup this week. It’s important to note that this game kicks off on Thursday, so you will be forced into an early decision. Divisional games are always difficult, but a short week does favor the better team and the home team. In both cases, that is the Ravens.
Each team is coming of a blowout victory at home in Week 9 with the Ravens opponent stronger than the Bengals’. Led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, the Ravens offense has been a force to be reckoned with this season. They are first in both total yards and rushing yards per game while coming in second with 31.4 points scored per game. Cincinnati’s defense is merely average from a yardage perspective, but they rank 25th with 25.2 points allowed per game.
This game likely will be decided both on the ground and via time of possession. The Bengals rank 27th with just 94 rushing yards per game while the Ravens have the best run defense in the league allowing just 76 yards per game.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans – Chargers -7.5
While Will Levis is trending towards making his return, I’m not sure that it truly matters. Whether it has been Levis or Mason Rudolph, the Tennessee offense simply has not been good this season. Ranking 28th in total yards (314) and 27th in points (17.5) per game, Tennessee’s offense leaves a lot to be desired. On the defensive side of things, the Titans limit the yardage but they can’t stop opposing teams from putting points on the board.
They are currently at a 9.1 point deficit as their defense is allowing 26.5 points per game. Despite having Justin Herbert under center, no one is going to confuse the Chargers with having a truly explosive offense. However, they have shown some flashes of picking up the pace as of late.
However, it’s the defense that will really make the difference on Sunday. The Chargers are allowing a league-leading 12.6 points per game and this will not be an easy trip to California for the Titans.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos – Chiefs -8
Will the Chiefs lose at all this season? While they do have a divisional matchup upcoming in a short week, it doesn’t appear that it will come in Week 10. It’s another difficult matchup for Bo Nix as now he has to travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Kansas City.
It was a get right game for Patrick Mahomes as he threw for three touchdown passes against Tampa Bay. Two of those touchdowns went to his new weapon in DeAndre Hopkins as perhaps now the Kansas City offense will find their groove. Kareem Hunt still provides a strong run game as the Chiefs offense continues to work their way up the rankings.
The true strength of the Chiefs though has been their defense. They are allowing the second fewest yards (302) and fourth fewest points (18.4) per game. This will make life difficult for Nix and a Denver team that doesn’t have a necessarily explosive offense to begin with.
Fade
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – Eagles -7
Dak Prescott is sidelined for the next few weeks and Cooper Rush is now under center. The Cowboys are reeling and there are major questions about Mike McCarthy’s job security. So why would we expect Dallas to pull out the victory?
For starters, crazier things have happened this season, and we know on a weekly basis, anything can happen. Rush has shown that he can make throws at times and he does have CeeDee Lamb to target. The Cowboys have yet to win on their home field this season while the Eagles are in the midst of a four game winning streak. What can go wrong? Last week in Philadelphia we almost found out as the Jaguars almost fully roared back against these same Eagles.
Line 1
Houston/Kansas City/Philadelphia/Buffalo/Detroit/Cincinnati/Los Angeles Chargers
Line 2
Washington/Atlanta/Los Angeles Rams/Kansas City/Philadelphia/Baltimore
Line 3
Houston/Washington/Baltimore/Kansas City/Buffalo
Line 4
Tampa Bay/Cincinnati/Denver/Baltimore/Kansas City
Make sure to check out all of our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!