Now, as per usual, before we talk about Week 10 Starts and Sits we’ll speak a little bit about Thursday Night Football.
Merriam Webster’s dictionary defines the word “mercy” as “compassion or forbearance shown especially to an offender or to one subject to one’s power.” Obviously T.J. Watt missed that word in grade school. Antonio Brown, Maurkice Pouncey, and Ben Roethlisberger somehow were never taught either. Even Pittsburgh’s most beloved human Fortnite character got in on the action. There was no mercy on Thursday for Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers from the moment they stepped on the field. Head coach Ron Rivera said as much in his postgame interview with his infamous “sh** happens” quote. The Steelers clearly remember ending their Super Bowl bid last season at home and are eager to right that wrong. Look out everyone else in the AFC. James Conner did leave the game in concussion protocol but the specter of Le’Veon Bell looms.
Week 10 Starts and Sits
Also check out our Week 10 Sleepers: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Start These Quarterbacks:
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Do you want to know a secret? Marcus Peters, the de facto number one cornerback for the Los Angeles Rams (with Aqib Talib on the mend) is a man who tied for the league lead in interceptions as a rookie in 2015 with eight in that season. He’s made the Pro Bowl twice in his four-year career and is directly responsible for 25 total turnovers forced in that time. He is also, according to a tweet by Adam Levitan, Pro Football Focus’ 115th ranked corner… out of 120 this season. Again, the phrase “sh** happens” is quickly becoming a theme in this one. If Tyler Lockett burns Peters for a deep touchdown in Week 10, don’t say I didn’t warn you.
As for Russell Wilson, his last tango with these Los Angeles Rams resulted in three touchdowns on only 21 pass attempts. With a strong running game to lean on in that one, Wilson’s brilliant efficiency was just edged out by the Rams balanced attack. In this contest, Wilson won’t have Chris Carson to rely on and for that reason I would expect his attempts to increase. Mike Davis has been a capable performer for the Seahawks, but the going will be tough against Suh and Donald. The Rams, for their part, rank only 20th against the pass this year and have tied for the 10th most TDs allowed in 2018. When the Rams score their customary 30-plus this week, the Seahawks will have to score early and often to keep up. You want every part of this Week 10 shootout.
Eli Manning, New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Hey you. Over there. Yes you staring at the screen. Stop laughing, I’m serious. Eli Manning is a solid play this week. Now I know what you’re thinking. I’ve completely lost it and no longer can be trusted as an analyst. Well… maybe, but if you’re still reading at this point do me a favor and hear me out before severing this relationship.
Eli has surpassed 300 yards in three of his last four games. His 42.7 pass attempt average over his last three games ranks second in the NFL. He faces a defense allowing the ninth most fantasy points to QBs this season and the 49ers rank dead last in terms of takeaways in 2018. They are a decent defense when it comes to getting pressure on QBs however, but it’s tough to ignore all of the other positive signs in this contest. Hold your nose and start Eli Manning as a streamer this week.
Sit These Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
The Detroit Lions offensive line gave up double-digit sacks against the Minnesota Vikings last week. The Chicago Bears have a top-third graded defensive line per Football Outsiders. Golden Tate is no longer a Detroit Lion and Matthew Stafford has been tilting all year. This is a matchup to avoid.
Stafford is the 20th ranked quarterback so far on the season according to FantasyPros and it isn’t hard to see why. He has thrown the fourth highest danger plays with 21 through nine weeks according to PlayerProfiler. He’s also averaged only 3.6 yards per attempt (25th NFL) and ranks 37th in his Red Zone completion rate. With Khalil Mack back from injury to join in against Detroit this week, find an alternative starter if you need a win in Week 10.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
Game script is the primary reason I would hesitate to start Brady this week. But its not the only one. Over nine weeks the New England Patriots have had the 20th ranked pass to rush ratio in the NFL, a telling departure from last seasons 10th ranked mark. Now they’ll have a healthy Sony Michel in the fold against the Tennessee Titans that surprisingly are just an average run stopping bunch this season.
With the Tennessee offense struggling, despite their showing in last week’s Monday night island game, I wouldn’t put it past the Patriots to build a lead early and run to maintain that in the same manner they had against the Buffalo Bills earlier this year. Tom Brady is also not the same weapon he was in years past without a healthy Rob Gronkowski, and his status is in doubt this Sunday. You could do worse than Tom Brady this week. You could also do much, much better.
Start These Running Backs
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Last week, in the Cleveland Browns matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, the oft-underused Duke Johnson went off rather predictably for eight receptions on nine targets for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns. While the TDs were icing on top of the opportunities he received, the targets were a constant. The Kansas City Chiefs have averaged the most points per game scored in the NFL and as a result see a ton of passing attempts against them. Statistically, so far this season, the Chiefs have ceded the second most targets to the running back position and have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs. David Johnson is in a great spot to produce in Week 10.
Jalen Richard, Oakland Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
Richard is in a similar position to David Johnson this week. Assured a negative game script by playing underdog to the high flying Chargers offense, Richard is a near lock to lead the Oakland backfield in snaps this week. So far this season Richard has received the second most targets on his team after Jared Cook with 49 (seventh amongst RBs). The loss of Amari Cooper and shaky offensive line play has played a role in Derek Carr having the lowest average depth of target mark of his career (6.1y) and Richard is always the closest man to him. Expect a double-digit game from Richard in PPR leagues this weekend.
Sit These Running Backs
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
After seeing Matthew Stafford listed as a “sit” above you can look at this recommendation and take it at face value. Sit Kerryon Johnson and the rest of your Lions this week. The return of Theo Riddick capped Johnson’s already unstable usage rate as he received the targets that otherwise would have found the rookie in Week 9. There will be better days ahead for Johnson but Sunday will not be one of them. The Lions will likely be in a negative game script for most of this one and Johnson will struggle to get the touches necessary to turn in a productive fantasy day against the Chicago Bears’ third-ranked line against the run by yardage. The Bears have also allowed a league-low one touchdown scored on the ground so far through nine weeks. Make other arrangements for your RB2 spot.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The return of Mack’s opposite number, Leonard Fournette, throws a wrench in how this game is viewed from an analytical perspective. So far we’ve seen a ton of Blake Bortles pass attempts from Jacksonville in an effort to keep pace with the offenses they’ve faced. The result had been quicker three and outs, more snaps faced by the Jaguars defense, less time of possession, more turnovers, and more points scored against that team which in turn perpetuated more passes. This should change this week, and the result should be longer possessions for Jacksonville and less time on the ball for the Indianapolis Colts.
If this is the case, I would expect the Colts to attack the supposed weakness of the Jaguars defense through the air and away from Ramsey. Look for Luck and his TEs in the middle of the field to be the main fantasy plays on the Colts side of this game. Be wary of the taking the Jaguars defensive rush numbers at face value because they had faced the seventh-most attempts. The change in their offensive philosophy should lessen that number moving forward.
Start These Wide Receivers
Oh don’t mind me. Just a friendly reminder to start Cooper Kupp all day everyday and twice on Sundays…
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
We already went over Marcus Peters deficiencies so far this season in the blurb about Russell Wilson so we won’t beat a dead horse other than mentioning that Lockett should see Peters the most this weekend. These teams lit each other up in their first showing this year and we should expect no different in the Week 10 edition of this high-profile NFC matchup. There is also talk that Doug Baldwin may not play and won’t be 100% if he does suit up. All of this tells me it is safe to expect another touchdown fueled double-digit game from Tyler Lockett in this one.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins
MVS makes the start list for the second week in a row in what should be another plus matchup for the Green Bay rookie wideout. The worry with Scantling is that the majority of his production comes on just a few deep shots a game and there is some truth to that. That said, he has seemingly solidified his role as Green Bay’s WR2 over Randall Cobb, and Geronimo Allison has officially been placed on IR. The Miami Dolphins are a bottom-third unit against the pass and Davante Adams, not MVS, is the receiver most likely to be shadowed by Xavien Howard. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, the sky’s the limit for MVS and he has showed that with 100 yards or a touchdown in his last four games. Roll him out once more in Week 10.
Sit These Wide Receivers
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Jalen Ramsey. That is why we’re sitting T.Y. Hilton this week. I want nothing to do with Jalen Ramsey. In the last four matchups between the Colts and Jaguars in which both T.Y. Hilton and Ramsey played, Hilton has averaged less than 30 yards and .25 touchdowns a game. Fantastic numbers indeed.
Andrew Luck will have to throw on the Jaguars to beat the ball control tactic they will likely employ in this one. He will, and he’ll use his tight ends to do so. Hilton will get targets as his talent level will demand looks, but the going will be tough against his division nemesis. So far this season the Jacksonville Jaguars have only allowed 1654 yards through the air (1st NFL). There is over a 200-yard gap between the Jaguars and the next best squad against the pass, the Seattle Seahawks.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals vs New Orleans **Caution**
Tyler Boyd is going against one of the worst teams in the NFL against the slot. He’ll do this in a negative game script matchup at home. And he’ll face the fourth worst defense against the pass in the league since Week 1. So far, this breakout season has produced 620 yards and 5 touchdowns. I am aware of these factors but things aren’t always so simple. Sports is unpredictable. This could easily be a miss but here goes the counterpoint.
Context matters. Tyler Boyd has so far earned the vast majority of this season’s breakout production against weaker number two or number three specialized slot corners. Consistently being matched up against the league’s best DBs and under the added stress of press coverage can be a lot to handle for wideouts. With no A.J. Green, CB Marshon Lattimore will likely shadow Boyd. Time will tell if he is up to the task. I would feel far more comfortable starting Boyd moving forward after seeing how the Bengals utilize him in this matchup and whether he moves to X or stays inside.
Start This TE
Eric Ebron, Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Eric Ebron is currently fourth in the NFL in fantasy points scored at the TE position yet people still doubt this guy. Jack Doyle did immediately out snap Ebron in his return from his hip injury but both will be involved in this contest for the reasons listed above. Luck is a QB that has supported multiple TEs in the past and will continue to do so.
Sit This TE
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns
The Atlanta Falcons offense is a crowded one. Because of this fact, it is incredibly difficult to project targets for the third or fourth option on most reads, TE Austin Hooper. The fault does not lie with his talent level however, as we have seen that when he is consistently targeted (as he was in Week 5 and 6, with 12 and 10 targets respectively) he produces. The issue is he’s only seen more than four targets in three of four games this year and can’t be trusted to receive consistent looks when Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Mohamed Sanu are healthy. Start him if you must, as TEs are hard to find, but don’t expect much from the former Cardinal in Week 10.
Start These Defenses
Detroit Lions @ *Chicago Bears*
*New York Jets* vs *Buffalo Bills*
Sit These Defenses
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs *Washington Redskins*
Philadelphia Eagles vs *Dallas Cowboys*
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