Things continue to be crazy across the NFL, and that certainly keeps things exciting. We can never accuse the NFL of being boring, but when trying to forecast things, it’s not always easy. All we can do is stick with the process and do what we can to make it to see one more week. Based on how things went last week, the good news is that it’s likely the case. With a new week upon us, let’s keep the success going. With no more time to waste, let’s jump right into our Week 11 NFL Survivor Picks.
How Did We Do in Week 10?
Sometimes, it’s better to just look at the results after the fact than watch the game live. While it was a perfect week from the pick perspective, two games went down to the final play. Again though, it’s a results business, and each of our four picks delivered.
However, we do want to be transparent, so let’s start with the bad. Our fade of thinking the Dallas Cowboys would upset the Philadelphia Eagles couldn’t have been any more wrong. Cooper Rush threw for just 45 yards and was just flat-out brutal. That could be said for the entire Dallas offense as they never stood a chance against the Eagles. Part of the problem is that we become so accustomed to seeing big favorites lose that looking for fades just comes naturally. That doesn’t mean the tides won’t turn, but it’s become clear that there are some bad teams out there.
The Cincinnati Bengals don’t qualify as a bad team, and Joe Burrow managed to keep up with Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s offense was up to the task but their defense wasn’t. Ultimately, it was a failed two-point attempt by the Bengals that led to a one-point victory for the Ravens.
Kansas City’s victory also came down to the last play, but it was a blocked field goal that secured their victory. The Chiefs didn’t play a good game and the Broncos came alarmingly close to a victory.
Buffalo didn’t have many problems in dispatching the Colts as Joe Flacco showed his age. In a similar situation, the Chargers defended their home field by easily defeating the Titans.
Week 11 NFL Survivor Picks
There is no reason to stop now. This week there are another four teams on bye, but the problem is that two of those teams, the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, are easy targets. Additionally, the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will also be resting in Week 11. The good news though, is that we still have plenty of other options to choose from.
Each week, we’ll continue to pick four games to target along with one that we are fading. They will be ranked in order of our preference along with the lines that we hope to see building off each other each week. Let’s jump right into those survivor picks. Things are also becoming more difficult as some of our options have already been utilized. That means our first choice might not be necessarily available.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys – Texans -7.5
Picking the road team always me a little more pause, but the Dallas Cowboys haven’t given us any reason to fear them. Dak Prescott is sidelined for the year and Cooper Rush threw for just 45 yards last week. That isn’t going to even get us close to feeling good about Dallas. Rumors swirling about the future of Mike McCarthy aren’t helping the situation either. The Cowboys are also 0-4 at home this season, so it’s not like they enter Monday night with an edge.
On defense, the Cowboys are 31st in the league as they are allowing 29 points per game. With the second worse rushing offense in the league, Dallas also hasn’t been in the position to control the game tempo.
Houston is looking to bounce back from a tough second-half collapse last week against Detroit. I’d expect them to be motivated to avenge that loss. The Texans are led by CJ Stroud and Joe Mixon on offense and rank in the middle of the road on both sides of the ball. This is a situation where Houston is clearly the best team.
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans – Vikings -6
For those that picked Minnesota last week once Trevor Lawrence was announced out, it got hairy for most of the day. The Vikings managed to escape with a victory despite Sam Darnold having his worst game of the season. Darnold threw three interceptions while not finding the end zone in what was an ugly game.
The good news for the Vikings is that they have a soft landing spot this week. They travel to Tennessee to take on a Titans team that is struggling offensively. Will Levis had one of his better games in the season as he completed 18 of 23 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns. That is likely the ceiling for Levis, but this week, things will be more difficult for the quarterback.
Facing Brian Flores’ defense won’t be easy for Levis. The Vikings’ defense ranks second in the league with just 79 rushing yards allowed per game so that forces Tennessee’s hand into making this a one-dimensional game. When the Titans rank 31st in the league with just 169 passing yards, it figures to be a long day for Levis. Overall, Minnesota is allowing the third-fewest points in the league at just 17.4 per game.
The strength of the Titans team has been their defense, but they bend more often breaking. From a yardage perspective, they rank first in the league, but where it counts they rank 29th with 27 points allowed per game.
Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Lions -13.5
In the first half on Sunday, things didn’t look good for the Lions. However, Detroit jumped back into action in the second half and emerged victorious. This week, not only do they return home, but there is a significant downgrade in opponents.
Last week, the Vikings couldn’t have played any worse, but the Jaguars still fell short. With Trevor Lawrence sidelined, Mac Jones gets the start for the second straight week for Jacksonville. And to say that is less than ideal would be an understatement. Last week, Jones threw for just 111 yards and no touchdowns along with two interceptions. Detroit’s defense has limited teams to just 19 points per game, which is eighth in the league, and they aren’t going to make it easy for Jones.
The Jaguars defense hasn’t done them any favors, 27th in points allowed at 26.4 per game, and it’s going to be especially tough for them this week. Detroit is scoring the second most points in the league at 31.6 points and they should continue to light the scoreboard up again on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders – Dolphins -7
Tua Tagovailoa is back and the Miami Dolphins look like a different team. Or should we say that they look like the team we thought they should have been if he was healthy? They are coming off a strong road victory on Monday against the Rams and now they return home for a soft landing spot.
The Raiders are in the midst of a five-game losing streak, and they don’t show any signs of turning that ship around. It’s hard to accurately judge Miami’s offense since Tagovailoa has missed the majority of the season, as the statistical production hasn’t been there. However, the talent is there and Miami put up 23 points last week.
Aside from Brock Bowers, the Raiders are struggling to generate much offense scoring 18.7 points per game. When their defense is allowing 27.9 points per game, that isn’t exactly a winning combination.
Fade
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears – Packers -5
There has been movement in this spread as the Packers were previously favored by 6.5 points earlier in the week. The Bears come into the week reeling and in the midst of a three game losing streak. Caleb Williams has regressed, at least temporarily, and Chicago parted ways with their offense coordinator. The feeling for some is that the change to the Bears’ coaching staff didn’t go high enough. Additionally, some have begun to lose confidence in Williams under center.
While it might not be the true answer, the switch in coordinators might generate some momentum for the Bears. The fact that they are also 4-1 at home also works in their favor.
Line 1
Houston/Kansas City/Philadelphia/Buffalo/Detroit/Cincinnati/Los Angeles Chargers/Miami
Line 2
Washington/Atlanta/Los Angeles Rams/Kansas City/Philadelphia/Baltimore/Detroit
Line 3
Houston/Washington/Baltimore/Kansas City/Buffalo/Minnesota
Line 4
Tampa Bay/Cincinnati/Denver/Baltimore/Kansas City/Houston
Make sure to check out all of our Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!