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Week 11 Sneaky Starts for Fantasy Football

Well, I should have seen that coming. I talked smack last week about how good my sneaky starts have been and then had an up-and-down week. It was not a disaster by any means, but disappointing nonetheless. Hopefully this week I can get back to prior levels of production out of these picks. As you know, these are players who are started in less than 50 percent of Fantrax leagues. I have found this is a good barometer for players who are on the cusp of weekly Flex consideration. I believe that fantasy football managers should consider starting the players below, as I anticipate them exceeding expectations and providing starter-level production. So without further ado, let’s get to my Week 11 Sneaky Starts!

Week 11 Sneaky Starts for Fantasy Football

Quarterback

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Current Start Percentage: 47 Percent (15th among Quarterbacks)

My Current Week 11 Rank: QB10

Since Week 5, Bo Nix has been the overall QB7 in fantasy points per game. He has finished inside the top 12 in four of the last six weeks. That includes a weekly QB12 finish last week. There are a couple of things I found particularly impressive about last week’s performance from Nix. First and foremost, it was in Kansas City against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Not many rookie quarterbacks can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes, but Nix was up to the task. Nix also had a solid fantasy outing despite not contributing as a rusher. Before last week, Nix had at least 36 rushing yards and/or a rushing touchdown in seven of nine games and five straight. The Chiefs held Nix to -5 yards on the ground, and Nix still found a way to finish inside the top 12.

Nix gets a much easier matchup from a fantasy perspective in Week 11. Denver will host the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta ranks 26th in the NFL in DVOA versus the pass. They also rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. The Falcons have allowed 17 touchdown passes, which is tied for the sixth-most in the league. They have also given up the third-most rushing yards in the league to opposing signal-callers. Nix has shown the ability to produce as both a passer and rusher in recent weeks, and that ability could lead to another top-12 finish in Week 11.

Other Quarterbacks to Consider

  • Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
    Current Start Percentage: 39 Percent (20th among quarterbacks)
    My Current Week 11 Rank: QB14

Running Backs

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (29th among Running Backs)

My Current Week 11 Rank: RB21

First, let’s observe a moment of silence for me, as I can no longer include Rico Dowdle in my Sneaky Starts. Dowdle has been a staple of this column in recent weeks and has served me well. But fantasy managers have finally (sort of) taken notice. Dowdle is currently being started in 51 percent of Fantrax leagues. Dowdle has a difficult matchup in Week 11 but is still the only Dallas back worth considering.

As for my first sneaky start at running back, I am going with Nick Chubb. Chubb has been highly inefficient in three games this season. He is averaging just 2.7 yards on 42 carries and has just six receiving yards. However, Chubb had last week’s bye week to recover and should be close to 100 percent. More importantly, he gets a matchup that continues to be one worth attacking. The New Orleans Saints have allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs in the past six weeks. In that span, seven different running backs have recorded top-15 weekly fantasy finishes versus the Saints. Even though Jerome Ford is back in the fold, Chubb is the player I expect to benefit most from this matchup. I would advise starting Chubb this week, even if he does not figure to factor into the passing game.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Start Percentage: 45 Percent (30th among Running Backs)

My Current Week 11 Rank: RB29

Jaylen Warren returned to the lineup last week and was the overall RB23 in Half-PPR leagues. He could have finished even higher had he not fumbled a carry down by the goal line. In any event, Warren’s usage was encouraging. He handled the ball 16 times and ended the day with 95 total yards. This week, Pittsburgh hosts the Baltimore Ravens in one of the best rivalry games in the NFL. Baltimore has been a much better defense versus the run than against the pass, but the Steelers stay true to themselves, and that usually means sticking to the run. Warren is also the preferred back in the passing game. The Ravens rank 23rd in the NFL in DVOA versus running backs out of the backfield. I think Jaylen Warren is at least worth Flex consideration this week in a game with sneaky shootout appeal.

Other Running Backs to Consider

  • Audric Estime, Denver Broncos
    Current Start Percentage: 16 Percent (53rd among Running Backs)
    My Current Week 11 Rank: RB31
  • Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers
    Current Start Percentage: 21 Percent (42nd among Running Backs)
    My Current Week 11 Rank: RB34

I could not quite get to the point where I would deem Audric Estime a must-start this week. However, he appears to be Denver’s primary running back going forward. I expect Bo Nix to be the main beneficiary of this week’s matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. But Atlanta ranks 19th in DVOA versus the run. That at least makes Estime worth considering depending on your other options.


Check out all of our Week 11 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex


Wide Receivers

Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns

Current Start Percentage: 42 Percent (43rd among Wide Receivers)

My Current Week 11 Rank: WR33

Cedric Tillman entered last week’s bye on quite the hot streak. The second-year wideout posted three consecutive top-15 weekly fantasy finishes from Week 7 through Week 9. Over that three-game span, Tillman has 21 catches for 255 yards and three touchdowns. Even if that level of production drops a bit, the volume should be enough to consider Tillman a fantasy starter. Though I consider Nick Chubb a Week 11 sneaky start as well, it is not as if he and Tillman cannot coexist. They should both see plenty of work this week, and the matchup is favorable. The Saints have not been quite as bit versus the pass as they are against the run. However, they have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. I think Tillman and Jerry Jeudy are both viable this week.

Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

Current Start Percentage: 49 Percent (37th among Wide Receivers)

My Current Week 11 Rank: WR35

Jakobi Meyers is not a sexy fantasy pick. But he gets plenty of volume, which is useful in fantasy circles. Meyers has 32 receptions in his last five games. He has four top-36 weekly finishes in those five games. That is starter-level production in 12-team leagues where you start three receivers. Meyers could easily approach that level again in Week 11. The Raiders face the Miami Dolphins this week. Miami is not the easiest matchup for opposing wide receivers. However, we just saw two high-volume wide receivers (Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp) post top-20 fantasy weeks versus Miami’s defense. Las Vegas is one of the biggest underdogs on this week’s board. That could lead to some negative game script, which would further cause the Raiders to rely on the passing game. Meyers should continue to see enough volume to keep him afloat for fantasy purposes.

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (38th among Wide Receivers)

My Current Week 11 Rank: WR36

I listed Quentin Johnston in this space, and he came through. Having said that, I am a bit wary of including him in this week’s sneaky starts. While Johnston has four top-30 weekly finishes in his last six games, the volume is less than desirable. Johnston is only averaging four targets per game in that span. Most of his production has come by way of receiving touchdowns. It may be tough to rely on Johnston to score a touchdown, but this week’s matchup lends itself to receiving production. The Cincinnati Bengals rank 27th this season in defensive DVOA against the pass. Over the past four weeks, they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Johnston profiles as a touchdown-dependent WR3 this week.

Other Wide Receivers to Consider

  • Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills
    Current Start Percentage: 47 Percent (39th among Wide Receivers)
    My Current Week 11 Rank: WR38
  • Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
    Current Start Percentage: 41 Percent (45th among Wide Receivers)
    My Current Week 11 Rank: WR39
  • Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
    Current Start Percentage: 36 Percent (48th among Wide Receivers)
    My Current Week 11 Rank: WR40

Tight End

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints

Current Start Percentage: 41 Percent (16th among Tight Ends)

My Current Week 11 Rank: TE8

Taysom Hill is another player I had in this article last week as well as this week. Hill did not pay off last week. However, he had an 88-yard touchdown catch called back due to a penalty. Had that touchdown stood, Hill would have been the top-scoring tight end. Even as it is, Hill was the TE16 for the week, so it is not as if he was a complete bust. Hill is not your typical tight end, as the Saints use him as both a rusher and receiver. The Cleveland Browns rank 23rd in DVOA versus the pass and 15th against the run. Hill is versatile enough to be considered a starting tight end in 12-team leagues in Week 11.

Other Tight Ends to Consider

  • Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
    Current Start Percentage: 46 Percent (12th among Tight Ends)
    My Current Week 11 Rank: TE19

Kicker

Wil Lutz, Denver Broncos

Current Start Percentage: 22 Percent (16th among Kickers)

My Current Week 11 Rank: K11

The last time we saw Wil Lutz, he was getting a game-winning field goal blocked by the Kansas City Chiefs. It has been a rough go of it in recent weeks for Lutz. Lutz has finished outside the top 20 among kickers in three straight games. However, a matchup with the Atlanta Falcons should get Lutz back on track. The Falcons have allowed the most field goals in the NFL en route to allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position. Fantrax leagues reward longer kicks, so kicking in the altitude of Denver should benefit Lutz as well this week. If you are streaming fantasy kickers, consider Wil Lutz a sneaky start in Week 11.

Other Kicker to Consider

  • Blake Grupe, New Orleans Saints
    Current Start Percentage: 24 Percent (15th among Kickers)
    My Current Week 11 Rank: K12

Defense/Special Teams

Green Bay Packers

Current Start Percentage: 42 Percent (15th among D/STs)

My Current Week 11 Rank: D/ST5

The Green Bay Packers defense/special teams had a rough stretch from a fantasy standpoint heading into last week’s bye. Green Bay finished no higher than 14th among fantasy D/STs in each of their last three games. But this week the Packers face the Chicago Bears. Chicago has been an offense to target, especially recently. The Bears have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the past four weeks. That stretch has come despite Chicago only turning the ball over twice in that span. In their last three games, the Bears have scored just 27 points while allowing 18 sacks. Green Bay should be able to rattle Caleb Williams and company, making them worthy of streaming in this matchup.

Other Defense/Special Teams to Consider

  • Los Angeles Rams
    Current Start Percentage: 41 Percent (16th among D/STs)
    My Current Week 11 Rank: D/ST9

Make sure to check out all of our Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!

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