Since the start of the season, my weekly risers, fallers and hot seat article has looked at the big picture. Each week that I compiled a list of players, it was with “a lot of football left to be played” in mind. The goal was to find long-term value. The Week 12 risers, fallers, and the hot seat list is different. With playoffs just three weeks away, and a whopping six teams on bye this week, I feel it’s important to emphasize players with value, and those lacking, for Week 12 specifically.
For some of these players, there will be some consideration for the rest of the season. I don’t want to look too far ahead, however, as Week 12 feels like a “must-win” moment for many. Before you dive in, feel free to review my Week 11 risers, fallers, and the player on the hot seat that I named before last weekend.
Week 12 Risers, Fallers, and a Player on the Hot Seat
Risers
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert is back on the Week 12 risers list after featuring him for the first time this season on the Week 9 risers list. Herbert is one of eight quarterbacks averaging 21.0 or more fantasy points since then. I don’t see things slowing down for Herbert, either. Three of his next four opponents rank inside the top-six in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. In Week 12 specifically, Herbert and the Chargers host the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night. They’ve allowed the third-most points to quarterbacks. More specifically, they’re averaging 284.5 passing yards allowed per game.
So, while Justin Herbert is the top name on the Week 12 risers list, you can consider the key pieces of the Chargers’ passing game Week 12 risers, as well. That’s Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Will Dissly. All three pass catchers have 15 or more total targets over their last three games. Johnston ranks as the WR16 and Will Dissly as the TE9 in that span. Though McConkey is just the WR34, he just logged a career-high six receptions and 123 yards in Week 11.
Start your Chargers in Week 11. If you have multiple, you can start them all. With six teams on bye, there aren’t many other offenses I am willing to invest so heavily in for Week 12 considering the matchup and how they’re playing as of late. Furthermore, not many quarterback/pass-catching combos have a better three-game stretch to get you to the playoffs than the Chargers do.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving has logged more carries than Rachaad White in all three of the Buccaneers’ games before their Week 11 bye. Irving is and has been running better than White all season long. Irving is averaging 5.1 yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns. White is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry with just one rushing touchdown. I can’t ignore White’s receiving upside, however. He has six or more targets in three of the Buccaneers’ last four games with at least one receiving touchdown in each of those. White has 13 more targets and 11 more receptions than Irving on the season.
Bucky Irving is a Week 12 riser however due to Tampa Bay’s upcoming schedule. Over the next three weeks, the Bucs will play the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. All three teams are in the top-half of the league in matchups for opposing running backs. The Panthers specifically are the best matchup for running backs while the Raiders rank eighth.
Overall, I expect the Buccaneers to blow out all three of these teams. The Panthers and Raiders specifically rank first and fourth in points allowed per game this season. This should lend to a positive game script, especially later in games, for the Buccaneers’ backfield to kill the clock. Both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White belong in lineups, but I give the edge to Irving, again, who has been running better this season and has three advantageous matchups to exploit ahead.
More Quick-Hitting Risers
Brian Robinson Jr. is back! After missing two games due to a hamstring injury, Robinson Jr. returned to his normal lead back role in Week 11 against the Eagles. He logged 16 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown. It’s his sixth game of eight played this season with a rushing touchdown. Five of Robinson’s six first half carries in Week 11 went for five or more yards or a touchdown. Up next for Robinson, with extra rest, is a home game against the Dallas Cowboys. They just let Joe Mixon rush 20 times for 109 yards and three touchdowns against them in Dallas on Monday Night. I think Robinson dominates the workload, in the form of carries, far outscoring Austin Ekeler in Wek 12.
Baker Mayfield emerges from the Buccaneers’ Week 11 bye with a league-winning schedule ahead. Baker is already the QB4 on a points per game basis this season. He is among Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow as the only four quarterbacks averaging 22.0 or more points per game. I don’t know if he can catch Lamar (25.1), but there’s a strong chance Baker Mayfield finishes as the QB2 this season. Five of the remaining six matchups for Baker rank as top-10 teams in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. That includes two against the Carolina Panthers. Mike Evans is also due back in Week 12 with a legitimate shot at his 11th-straight 1,000 yard season.
Rome Odunze led all Bears with 10 targets in Week 11. This is significant because it’s the first game after making an offensive coordinator change. Odunze now has six or more targets in each of his last four games played. Up next for Odunze and the Bears is an NFC North showdown with the Minnesota Vikings. They’re allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game. Odunze is a Week 12 riser worth considering for your lineups this week.
Jonnu Smith has a team-high 31 total targets since the Miami Dolphins’ Week 6 bye. After logging a team-high eight targets in Week 11, Smith (52) is now officially second in targets behind only Tyreek Hill (67) this season. His Week 12 home matchup against the New England Patriots doesn’t stand out as one of the best, but his usage in the Dolphins’ passing game does. Smith can be trusted to start in Week 12 yet again amidst six teams on bye.
Fallers
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Week 12 feels like a major fork in the road for Malik Nabers. I don’t think it’s a secret I have him on the Week 12 fallers list due to the quarterback change in New York. Coming out of their Week 11 bye, the Giants are moving forward with Tommy DeVito as their starting quarterback. Drew Lock will back him up. Yuck.
Malik Nabers hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3. He hasn’t had more than 71 yards in a game since Week 4 with less than 60 yards in three of his last four played. After averaging 22.9 points as the WR1 in his first four games, Malik Nabers is averaging just 12.0 points per game as the WR32 over his last four.
Given the amount of teams on bye in Week 12, you’re still starting Malik Nabers. Despite playing just eight games this season, Nabers is fourth in total targets amongst all wide receivers. His 11.8 targets per game ranks first. That’s his saving grace. He should continue to get peppered with targets. Luckily for DeVito, and Nabers, their Week 12 matchup, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, allow the third-most passing yards per game this season. I’m obviously hoping Nabers posts 100 yards and/or a touchdown, but it’s hard to look past the return of Tommy DeVito under center.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
It’s been a roller coaster of a season for Mark Andrews managers. After just 14 total targets in his first five games, Andrews finally broke out catching 12 of 13 targets in his next three from Weeks 6 through 8 for 143 total yards and four touchdowns. However, November has mirrored September. Andrews has caught 10 of 12 targets in three games, two of which he logged 26 or less scoreless yards. It’s time to get off the ride in Week 12.
Andrews and the Ravens face the Chargers in Los Angeles on Monday Night. The Chargers defense is for real. They’re allowing a league-low 14.5 points per game with just 18.0 per game in their last three. That includes their most recent matchup with Joe Burrow and the Bengals. More importantly, for Andrews’ sake, the Chargers are the only team in the NFL that has not allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season.
When it comes to setting a Week 12 lineup, I want players I can trust. I don’t trust Mark Andrews at this point in the season. Options are limited, I get that, but there are tight ends with better matchups I prefer more. In fact, if Will Dissly is available, I would rather him than Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely in this Monday Night Football matchup.
More Quick-Hitting Fallers
D’Andre Swift has a brutal set of matchups ahead. Over the next five weeks, the Bears face the Vikings and Lions twice each with an away game against the 49ers sandwiched in between. All three teams have allowed 790 or less total rushing yards to running backs this season. They’re all allowing 4.02 yards per carry or less to running backs, as well. Additionally, Roschon Johnson logged just seven fewer snaps, four fewer carries, and had two goal line carries for the Bears, one of which he scored a touchdown on. Swift is a Week 12 faller and only a consideration in Points Per Reception formatting if at all.
Aaron Jones doesn’t quite have the brutal matchups that the aforementioned D’Andre Swift has, but, like Swift, is his splitting work in his own respective backfield. In Week 11, Cam Akers played just 12 less snaps with just five less carries than Jones. Akers drew one more target than Jones catching a three yard touchdown pass to extend the Vikings’ lead in the second half. Jones will still see his fair share of work as the Vikings continue to push toward the playoffs. However, sitting with an 8-2 record and opponents with a combined 20-21 record over their next four games specifically, it’s possible Akers logs more playing time and touches to preserve Jones for the long run. Jones is a Week 12 faller from RB1 status, Akers belongs on benches, and the two nerf each other’s value however slightly.
The Week 12 Hot Seat
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel is the WR40 on a fantasy points per game basis. Putting Deebo on the hot seat is long overdue. He has just one game of 20.0 or more fantasy points this season. That’s after logging six such games last season in just 15 played. Deebo did exit Week 7 early with complications from pneumonia. After 0.0 points that week, he’s averaged just 10.4 points per game since.
Deebo is lacking in just about every stat that makes him such a weapon in fantasy football. Specifically, when it comes to his rushing upside, he’s averaging just 2.9 yards per carry this season. He hasn’t had more than 20 rushing yards, or a rushing touchdown, in a game since Week 1. He’s had five or more games of 20 or more rushing yards in each of his last three seasons with at least three rushing touchdowns. His yards per carry average is his lowest since 2020 having no less than 5.5 per rush since 2021.
The elephant in the room is the emergence of Jauan Jennings. He made the Week 11 risers list last week. Jennings is the 49ers’ target leader (58) this season. More importantly, Jennings has 22 total targets over the Niners’ last two games. Deebo Samuel has 13, just one more than Christian McCaffrey. I’d like to say better days are ahead for Deebo, but I’m pessimistic. Specifically over the next three weeks, he has tough matchups against the Packers, Bills and Bears’ secondaries. He’s no longer a WR1 and on the Week 12 hot seat to hopefully give us WR2 numbers.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!