Week 12 Flex Rankings: Fading Hollywood

Say goodbye to Hollywood. Say goodbye my baby. – “Say Goodbye to Hollywood”, Billy Joel

Sayin’ goodbye, sayin’ goodbye to Hollywood. “Say Goodbye Hollywood”, Eminem

You should have never trusted Hollywood. – “Lost in Hollywood”, System of a Down

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I am going to assume that none of the songs listed above were written about Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. After all, Brown was born in 1997, and these songs were all recorded in or before 2005. But fantasy managers who have relied on Brown this season can certainly empathize with the sentiments penned by these lyricists. Brown enjoyed a decent start to the 2020 season. He was the WR32 through Week 5, which was a solid enough return considering his sixth-round ADP. However, it has gone downhill in a hurry for the second-year wideout. Since returning from a Week 7 bye, Brown has six catches for 55 yards. In four games. Total. Brown now sits outside the top 50 fantasy wide receivers on the season. I have him even lower than that in my Week 12 Flex rankings.

The Ravens have an upcoming matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, COVID-19 permitting. The NFL has already moved the game from Thursday to Sunday. Even if the game is played, fantasy managers would be hard-pressed to trust Brown. His best weekly finish since Week 5 is WR45. He did score last time he faced the Steelers, but it was his only catch of the game, and went for three yards. Brown should line up against Joe Haden on roughly half of his snaps. The veteran ranks 40th out of 125 cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus’ coverage metric. Ironically, Haden is the lowest-ranked of Pittsburgh’s top three corners. That means that if Brown lines up against Steven Nelson or Cameron Sutton, his matchup becomes worse. All in all, this is not the week to expect a bounceback performance from Brown. I would not recommend him as a Flex in 12-team leagues.

Ravens Running Backs in Limbo

Staying in Baltimore, running backs J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram tested positive for COVID-19 on Sunday night. (What good fortune the team had that neither player tested positive before Sunday’s game, he said sarcastically.) Baltimore quickly ruled out the pair of running backs. However, the NFL has since moved the game to Sunday. That may open a window for either or both to play depending on the events of the next 72 hours. For now, I am projecting as if neither Dobbins nor Ingram will play. I have Gus Edwards ranked as a Week 12 Flex, while Justice Hill is little more than a flier in deep leagues. If Dobbins does somehow play on Sunday, he would be a mid-range RB2 and knock Edwards out of Flex consideration. Dobbins is quickly becoming the only Ravens running worth playing in most matchups. Ingram looks like a shell of his former self.

Burrow’s Injury Buries Bengals Value

WR12, WR13, WR29. Those were the fantasy values of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup in the five games Dak Prescott started this season. Their ranks since are WR47, WR35, and WR93, respectively. To be fair to the Cowboys skill players, they may improve on their recent performances now that Andy Dalton looks to be back in the fold for the remainder of the year. But there is virtually no chance for them to return to the levels they had attained with Prescott at the helm. Do you see where I am going with this? Hint- it isn’t good for the tandem of Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and A.J. Green.

WR17, WR27, WR69. These are the year to date fantasy values of Boyd, Higgins, and Green. The season-ending injury to Joe Burrow is likely to have a similar effect on Cincinnati’s receivers as Prescott’s did in Dallas. It may be a death knell for the fantasy values of the Bengals wide receivers. Burrow averaged just over 40 pass attempts per game in his rookie season. If Ryan Finley has to throw the ball 40 times in a game, something has gone terribly wrong. A whopping 21 percent of Finley’s 119 career dropbacks have resulted in a sack, scramble, or interception. Of the 53 quarterbacks who attempted at least 50 passes last season, Finley’s 61.9 on-target percentage was second-lowest. His insertion into the lineup is going to hurt the rest of Cincinnati’s skill players, particularly their trio of wide receivers. The only question is to what degree.

On the bright side, Boyd has one of the most favorable matchups on the entire slate. Darnay Holmes is New York’s primary slot cornerback. Holmes has allowed a massive 80.5 percent catch rate. To his credit, he has kept the play in front of him. The 33 receptions he has allowed have only gone for 321 yards, and he has yet to allow a touchdown. But Boyd should be Finley’s primary read often in this game. I can see a very similar line to last week’s 9-85-0 effort. Still, it will be tough to trust him as more than a WR3. Higgins could be a serviceable Flex depending on your other options, while managers can probably drop Green in most leagues. If your league still allows trades for whatever reason, I would try to move any Bengal receiver who has a good game on Sunday, including Boyd.

Giovani Bernard will likely suffer as well with Finley leading the charge. Bernard has skated by on volume and receiving output as opposed to efficiency in Joe Mixon’s absence. Bernard has just 147 rushing yards and one touchdown in four games since Mixon went down, but has added 129 yards and two scores through the air. Cincinnati placed Mixon on injured reserve this week, so it should be the Gio show going forward. It is reasonable to surmise that Mixon sits out the rest of the year. I cannot imagine the Bengals rushing him back for meaningless games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Bernard in the RB13 on a point per game basis over the last month, but he too will have a lower floor and ceiling while being saddled with Finley. He is a low-end RB2 for me this week.

Mining in San Francisco

The San Francisco 49ers are hoping to have several of their offensive weapons as they return from their bye. As of now though, it is unclear whether the likes of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson, or Deebo Samuel will suit up. Brandon Aiyuk is still on the COVID-19 list, though I expect he will be cleared in time for Sunday’s divisional game against the Los Angeles Rams. I currently have none of the 49ers ranked as starters per my Week 12 Flex rankings. That may change depending on which players end up available and which sit, but it is likely to be a mess either way. If Mostert is active, he is the player I would have the most confidence in, but ideally, this will be a “wait and see” week for those who are heavily invested in the 49ers skill players.

Week 12 Flex Rankings

If you found Mick’s Week 12 Flex Rankings helpful, you’ll also want to check out our Week 12 FAAB Guide for more help in optimizing your rosters.

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