We were on the wrong side of a lot of spreads last week and the straight up picks were not strong. 7-6 is just not good enough, so I’m looking to bounce back with my Week 12 picks. Yeah, you guessed it…the Titans screwed me! Carolina, Arizona and the Chargers all suffered shocking losses. Well, at least in my mind. Hey, at least we hit the Rams/Chiefs over by the third quarter. Good luck to all making Week 12 NFL picks. Happy Thanksgiving!
We’ll keep track of all my picks throughout the season, including my losses! Over time, we’ll find out if you should back me or straight up fade me. Send your complaints to @chrismeaney.
Last week:
SU: 7-6
AS: 5-8
O/U: 9-4
Season total:
SU: 102-57-2
AS: 92-69
O/U: 88-73
Week 12 NFL Picks
Chicago Bears -3 @ Detroit Lions (43.5)
SU: Bears
AS: Bears
O/U: Under
Chase Daniel has been paid a lot of money to be a backup. Finally, we get to see a bit of what all the fuss is about with him. This will be Daniel’s first start since 2014 and third of his career. In nine years, Daniel has 78 passing attempts, 480 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Lucky enough for him, he has a great defense. Detroit will be without Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys -7 (40.5)
SU: Cowboys
AS: Redskins
O/U: Under
From Chase Daniel to Colt McCoy. This really is 2014! McCoy has more experience than Daniel, but he hasn’t started an NFL game since 2014 either. McCoy started four games that season and threw for over 1,000 yards. This offense will go through Adrian Peterson, but he’s no Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have looked good in two straight games now. Washington keeps it close but the long list of injuries will come into play.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints -13 (60)
SU: Saints
AS: Falcons
O/U: Over
I don’t think there is a team out there that can stop the New Orleans Saints right now. Don’t be surprised if they put up another 40-plus points in this one. These two teams usually play it close no matter the record, and I expect the same from Matt Ryan and company.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals -3 (47.5)
SU: Bengals
AS: Bengals
O/U: Over
These two teams are one and two in yards allowed per game, and they are two and three in passing yards allowed per game. The Bengals are allowing a league-high 153 rushing yards per game, while the Browns have given up the fifth-most rushing yards per game. I’m feeling some points from Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon. An A.J. Green return will put Cincinnati on top.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 @ Buffalo Bills (37)
SU: Jaguars
AS: Jaguars
O/U: Under
Both teams rank in the top four when it comes to fewest yards and passing yards allowed per game. The Bills have surrendered the second-fewest yards per game and the fewest passing yards per game. That’s alright, because Jacksonville’s offense runs through Leonard Fournette who has 59 touches in his last two games.
New England Patriots -9 @ New York Jets (46)
SU: Patriots
AS: Patriots
O/U: Over
I feel for the New York Jets in this spot. They are home and coming off a bye, but the Patriots are also coming off a bye and got crushed in their last game. Tom Brady and all of his weapons are in play this week for DFS purposes. Everyone, but Rob Gronkowski. Julian Edleman is in for a huge day as the Jets have struggled all year against slot wideouts.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (46.5)
SU: Eagles
AS: Giants
O/U: Over
I jumped all over the Giants when Philly opened as -6.5 favorites. I still feel pretty strong about New York doing enough to stay in this game. The Eagles will be without Jordan Hicks on defense and that’s just the start of it as they are down to their fifth and sixth corners. No team has given up more catches to wideouts this season and only the Saints have allowed more yards to the position.
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens -10.5 (43)
SU: Ravens
AS: Ravens
O/U: Under
I don’t think Lamar Jackson will have 27 rushing attempts again, but he seems like a lock for double digits attempts seeing as the Ravens ran 13 times to start last week’s game. The Raiders have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, so we could see a similar game plan which involved over 50 runs and fewer than 20 passes in Week 11. Baltimore has allowed the fewest yards per game, second-fewest passing yards per game and fewest points per game. Good luck, Derek Carr.
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers -3 (47.5)
SU: Panthers
AS: Panthers
O/U: Under
Tough game. I’m on Seattle in spots where they are 3.5 underdogs. In this spot, I’ll take the home team by a field goal. Let’s hope they let Graham Gano kick it this time.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (54.5)
SU: Buccaneers
AS: Buccaneers
O/U: Over
Tampa Bay has allowed the most passing touchdowns and the most points per game. Only three teams on the schedule this week have allowed more yards and passing yards per game (CIN, CLE & ATL). On the flip side, they are leading the league in yards per game (458) and passing yards per game (361). They play in shootouts.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers -12 (45)
SU: Chargers
AS: Cardinals
O/U: Under
Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen should be able to do enough to cover here. Allen playing in the slot should get him away from Patrick Peterson. Both teams have a strong defense, but the Chargers have a bit more to offer on the offensive side of things.
Miami Dolphins @ Indianpolis Colts -7.5 (51)
SU: Colts
AS: Colts
O/U: Over
The Colts opened up as -10.5 favorites, but the gap keeps closing. Indy’s center, Ryan Kelly, is ruled out and it may have something to do with the number moving. Nonetheless, the Colts have allowed the second-fewest sacks this season and Miami has the third-fewest sacks. Indy enters the week with a 30.5 team total, which is the highest in the league. I agree, 10.5 was a bit high, but if it gets to seven, I’ll lock it in.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Denver Broncos (47)
SU: Steelers
AS: Steelers
O/U: Under
I think of Tim Tebow to Demaryius Thomas when I see these two teams playing in Denver. What a moment, what a game. I didn’t expect it from Tebow then and I don’t this week with Case Keenum. Ben may struggle as he usually does on the road, but he’ll pull it out…like he usually does on the road.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings -3 (48)
SU: Vikings
AS: Vikings
O/U: Under
The last time Aaron Rodgers played the Vikings in Minnesota he messed up his shoulder. He tends to struggle to move the ball in Minny, and it’ll be a grind this week. I’m going with the all-around better team at home. The Vikings have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game, sixth-fewest passing yards per game and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. They have also allowed the fewest passing touchdowns and second-fewest rushing touchdowns.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans -6.5
SU: Texans
AS: Titans
O/U:
We don’t have a line or spread yet, but it opened up at -6.5 for Houston. The Texans have won seven straight games, so I’ll be on them regardless of whether Marcus Mariota plays or not. I expect him to play and if he does, he could keep this close. Both defenses are strong and it’s a divisional game, so I don’t expect a blowout.
Like these Week 12 NFL Picks? Get more Chris Meaney on his new podcast, By Any Means. Each week he’ll bring in guests from around the industry to break down all the fantasy news you need to know for your march to the championship.
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