I hate losing more than I enjoy winning. Hopefully, I am not the only maniac out there who feels this way. Last week I went 1-2 in my weekly player props, which was my first losing week in a while. But it was the way I lost that was beyond frustrating. In my writeup for Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yardage prop last week, I specifically mentioned that his rushing attempts line was 18.5. Even as I was writing it, I thought, “Hmmm, maybe I should just play that instead.” Of course, I went the yardage route. Taylor had the third-lowest yards per carry in his five-year career. He fell way short of his yardage prop while clearing his attempts line early in the third quarter.
I faded Amon-Ra St. Brown, thinking that volume would be limited if Detroit were to jump in front of Jacksonville early. The Lions won by 46 points, and somehow the Sun God caught 11 passes. Adding insult to injury was that while publicly fading St. Brown, I was bullish on Jameson Williams. However, I decided not to bet on his yardage since I already had a bet on St. Brown. Williams surpassed 100 yards, easily blowing by his yardage line of 44.5. Sometimes you have a losing week because the reads are just bad, or maybe you get unlucky. But it feels worse when you feel like you see things correctly for the most part and still lose.
I bring this up not only to lament but also to emphasize that the mental aspect of gambling is even more important than the analytical part. You cannot carry one week’s losses into the following week. In this instance, I cannot allow myself to chase the 1.05 units I lost in last week’s player props. Sure, I can stew about it privately, or even complain about it endlessly out loud. But I cannot let it affect how I approach this week’s slate. If you feel that you cannot compartmentalize, it is always OK to step back and take a break. As for me, I have a job to do. So here are three player props I have identified for the coming week. Feel free to adjust any or all bets as you see fit and best of luck!
NFL Week 12 Player Props
Bucky Irving OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards (-120, Bet365)
Bucky Irving has failed to clear this line in three of his last four games. But I think there is reason to expect better results this week. First, Irving has gone over this yardage threshold in two of four Buccaneers wins but just twice in six losses. Tampa Bay enters their Week 12 matchup with the New York Giants as seven-point favorites. If this game goes as expected, Irving should benefit. He has emerged as Tampa Bay’s preferred back in rushing situations. Over their last three games, Irving has carried the ball 29 times for 141 yards, good for 4.86 yards per carry. Rachaad White has 19 rushes for 79 yards (4.16 YPC) in that span.
The matchup itself is also favorable for Irving. New York is allowing a league-high 5.15 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is well above average, which has allowed Buccaneer backs to rank in the top five in the NFL in both yards per carry (4.84) and power success rate. Irving has had at least 62 rushing yards in four of eight games in which he has carried the ball nine or more times. There are plenty of reasons to expect Irving to log at least that many carries this Sunday. This should result in a corresponding increase in rushing yards. This is one of my favorite Week 12 NFL player props. I would not mind laddering Irving’s rushing yards up to 70 or possibly even 80 yards.
Drake Maye OVER 21.5 Completions (-120, Bet365)
My final Week 12 NFL player prop is betting on Drake Maye to surpass his completions line against the Miami Dolphins. I like this based on the trends we are seeing on both sides of this equation. Let’s start with Maye. The Patriots’ rookie signal-caller has played five full games this season. He has gone over in three of the five. This hit rate correlates with how New England has performed in each game. Maye completed just 15-of-25 passes in New England’s Week 10 victory in Chicago. But in their four losses with Maye under center, the rookie has completed 20, 26, 29, and 29 passes. The Patriots are seven-point underdogs in this game. If they fall behind early, they have shown a willingness to trust Maye to throw the ball. This should lead to a healthy number of completed passes.
Miami’s recent defensive issues should also lead to Maye being able to complete at least 22 passes. Since Tua Tagovailoa has returned to action, the Dolphins have been a much more explosive offense. This means that on the other side of the ball, teams are having success through the air against Miami. Here are the quarterbacks’ numbers versus the Dolphins in the four games since Tagovailoa’s return:
Kyler Murray: 26-for-36
Josh Allen: 25-for-39
Matthew Stafford: 32-for-46
Gardner Minshew: 30-for-43
Given these recent tendencies, I think Maye should be able to exceed 21.5 completions on Sunday.
Xavier Worthy UNDER 2.5 Receptions (+130, BetRivers)
This is a situation that occurs often in the cat-and-mouse game between sportsbooks and bettors. Last week, the receptions line for Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy was also 2.5. However, the price was heavily skewed towards the under. Worthy had four receptions, and now the books have adjusted by swinging the juice toward the over. But I do not think that necessarily makes sense when diving into the circumstances involved. Yes, Worthy had four catches last week. But this was a game where the Chiefs never began a drive with the lead. Every offensive snap they ran took place with Kansas City either behind or tied. That should not be the case this week when the Chiefs face the Carolina Panthers.
Kansas City is a double-digit favorite in this game and Carolina has the worst run defense in the NFL. This does not project to be a game where Patrick Mahomes is airing it out. Expect the Chiefs to attack the Panthers on the ground. That goes double if Isiah Pacheco can return in time for this game. Not only does Carolina have a bad run defense, but they play zone coverage in the passing game at a very high clip. Worthy has been much more involved when the Kansas City faces man coverage. He has a 21.4 percent target share versus man coverage but just 12.5 percent against zone coverage.
Though Worthy caught four balls last week, he played a season-low 32 offensive snaps. His 58 percent snap percentage was Worthy’s third-lowest of the season. These numbers are significant because last week was the first game where the Chiefs had DeAndre Hopkins and Juju Smith-Schuster available. Even if Kansas City runs a significant number of offensive plays, it may not translate into snaps, targets, or receptions for Worthy. This may be a bit of a sweat. But considering the matchup and price, I am willing to fade Xavier Worthy this week, at least from a volume perspective.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!