With another week down, let’s keep things going. We have another week of survivor picks on tap for you, so follow along. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. On the picks side, things did go pretty well last week aside from Washington Commanders being upset by Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants. Additionally, our fade targets were too conservative with both coming out victorious.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 12 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 12 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Things were more difficult than we may have initially thought for the Lions last week, but they still picked up the win.
Jordan Love continues to struggle under center as the Packers are 19th overall with 218 passing yards per game. With Aaron Jones out and AJ Dillon dealing with a groin injury, although likely to play, Green Bay isn’t at their best. When you factor in that Detroit is only allowing 89.5 rushing yards per game, it is clear where the defense will focus. The Packers passing offensive isn’t going to be a true asset here, and their defense will be tested to keep them in the game.
Detroit has the second most yards and six most points in the league, so we know there are no issues moving the ball down the field. Against a solid, but not elite defense, the Lions should be able to pick up another victory.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
As with the above matchup, divisional contests are tough, but we are getting the better team at home.
While Sam Howell has been a bright spot under center for Washington, he is still going through growing pains and is very beatable. This week will not get any easier for Howell as he faces the second-best pass defense in the league as Dallas is allowing just 157 passing yards per game. That translates into the fifth-fewest points at 17.5 per game. With the Commanders, at best, being a middle-of-the-road offense, there is an opportunity for Micah Parsons and company to wreak havoc.
When you then factor in Dallas’ offense averaging 30.2 points per game, they should be in good shape as one of our survivor picks.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Does it even matter if Raheem Mostert and/or De’Von Achane play on Friday? At this point, Mike White could be starting at quarterback for Miami, and the discussion wouldn’t change.
New York does bring a strong defense into the game, but they can only sustain things for so long as it has been proven over the last few weeks. At this point, this is more about the Jets than anything else as I would probably choose a strong college team against them. They are simply a fractured and broken team that appears lost. There are too many penalties being committed, and the play is not disciplined. Quite simply, there is no way Tim Boyle can truly improve things or make things noticeably better, but they can’t be worse either.
For this week though, it’s like the Dolphins are slouches as they rank first in points scored at 30.5 per game to go along with their 7-3 record.
Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns
Getting to this point with your survivor picks is a great feeling. However, with that also comes a large amount of stress that comes with the heightened importance of each pick. With that said, each pick has the same level of importance, but you are just more locked in the deeper we get into the season. Ultimately, you have to feel comfortable here, and the logic and process must be sound.
Targeting the Browns makes sense from the perspective that DeShaun Watson is out for the year and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson is starting under center. Last week though, that didn’t mean anything as he did enough to lead the Browns to victory. Thompson-Robinson completed 23 of 43 passes for just 165 yards while throwing an interception. That is not a performance that will instill fear in an opposing defense. Additionally, Thompson-Robinson is not in the position to truly influence a game. Considering Denver’s defense ranks towards the bottom of the league, this is not a game in which the Broncos will be at a disadvantage.
With the way Russell Wilson has been playing as of late, the Broncos do have an advantage under center as they look for their fifth straight victory. Cleveland does have a strong defense, so this likely will be a low-scoring game. Options are at a premium here though, so let’s go with the better team that is at home and has an advantage at quarterback.
Other Games for Consideration
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
It is a divisional game and the Chiefs are on the road in a short week, but Kansas City will be looking to bounce back. They had a tough home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday that came down to the final possession, but this is the perfect bounce-back situation for the Chiefs.
After feasting on the Giants and Jets, Las Vegas and rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell came back down to earth in Miami in Week 11. Given your other alternatives, the Chiefs could very well be one of your survivor picks for this week.
Games to Fade
Aside from some projected blowouts earlier in the week, there are a lot of tight games on Sunday. While that doesn’t necessarily imply they will all be exciting, the teams are relatively evenly matched.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans, Dallas, Houston, Denver
Line 2
Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami
Line 3
San Francisco, Dallas
Line 4
Detroit
More Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty