Happy Thanksgiving! Lineup decisions are often tough calls, so here are my Week 13 flex rankings listing the top-100 PPR options at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. With a lot of injured players questionable to play, including big names like James Conner, T.Y. Hilton, and more, make sure to check back for injury updates before finalizing lineups. The good news is that all bye weeks are out of the way, so good luck with your match-ups for the final week of the fantasy regular season!
For more help getting ready for Week 13, check out our Waiver Wire Recommendations and our FAAB Guide.
Shooting for Shootouts
Even as recently as just a couple of years ago, a Vikings matchup against the Seahawks would’ve been lauded as a defensive showdown. But the Purple People Eaters and Legion of Boom are both long gone. Xavier Rhodes is a shell of his former self, and Seattle’s legion has been dismantled piece by piece over the years. This Monday night game is tied for the second-highest projected point total per Vegas with a combined 49 points expected to be scored.
Let’s start with Minnesota’s defense. Per Football Outsiders, the Vikings’ defense ranks 16th in passing DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) but are stout against the run with their fourth-ranked rushing DVOA. A big problem for Minnesota’s pass defense has been their inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, which could be highlighted even more against a mobile quarterback like Russell Wilson. In 2018, Minnesota hurried opposing quarterbacks on 13.7 percent of dropbacks (seventh-best in the league) and finished the year with 50 sacks, good for third-most in the NFL. Through 11 games this year, Minnesota has hurried opposing quarterbacks on just 8.0 percent of dropbacks (sixth-worst in the league), which is an issue that has been masked by a respectable 31 sacks thus far.
Another big factor is the decline of Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes had a down year in 2018 following his 2017 All-Pro season, and he’s been downright awful in 2019. He is currently the 66th-ranked cornerback per Pro Football Focus and has allowed opposing quarterbacks a 124.1 passer rating when targeted. Fire up Tyler Lockett, who I have ranked as WR10 this week, and D.K. Metcalf, my WR15 this week. Lockett was limited against Philadelphia but should be closer to full health with another week for his shin contusion to heal, and Metcalf has a good chance to score at least one long touchdown, if not more, in this game. However, with Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson likely splitting snaps following Carson’s two fumbles against the Eagles, neither is more than a middling RB3 option against this fourth-ranked Minnesota run defense.
As for Seattle’s defense, they’ve been even more disappointing than Minnesota this season, having allowed 2,956 passing yards thus far, the fourth-most in the league. The Seahawks’ defense ranks 14th in passing DVOA and are just as bad against the run, ranking 16th in rushing DVOA. And though they’ve hurried opposing quarterbacks at a slightly higher rate than Minnesota has (9.4 percent of dropbacks compared to 8.0 percent), Seattle has logged just 23 sacks (tied for fifth-worst in the league).
On the Vikings’ offense, Dalvin Cook will be featured as he has been all season and should find plenty of success, and he is my RB2 behind only Christian McCaffrey this week. Kirk Cousins should also have a big night against this Seahawks pass defense, especially if his favorite target Adam Thielen can return from his hamstring injury. Monitor Thielen’s status closely though, as he reportedly suffered a “slight scare” in practice Tuesday and was held out of practice on Wednesday. If active with no reports of limitations, Thielen would be my WR9 this week, and Stefon Diggs isn’t far behind at WR12. And if Thielen were to miss this game, Diggs should be a target magnet. Even Kyle Rudolph made the top-100 flex options this week, coming in at no. 99. Though Rudolph’s target share may drop with Thielen back, Seattle allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, so Rudolph could extend his touchdown streak to four games in a row here. The bottom line is that all of the usual Seahawks and Vikings skill players are great fantasy starts in what I project to be a 27-24 win by Seattle.
Benching Big Names?
In last week’s flex rankings article, I recommended fading Amari Cooper. With Stephon Gilmore shadowing him, Cooper was held without a single catch against the Patriots. While DeAndre Hopkins is better at beating press coverage than Cooper, Gilmore still presents a big challenge. In their two previous matchups, Hopkins has totaled just six receptions for 85 yards and no touchdowns against Gilmore. Further detracting from Hopkins’s production this week is the return of Will Fuller to the lineup. Although Hopkins scored twice against the Colts in Week 12 with Fuller back, Fuller’s presence, in general, this season has not bode well for Hopkins. This year, in the four games with Fuller out for most or all of the game, Hopkins has averaged nine catches for 86 yards on 12 targets. In seven games with Fuller active, Hopkins’s per-game numbers have dipped to just seven catches for 71 yards on nine targets. While Hopkins is still ranked as my WR20 this week, as he is talented enough to create a big play or score on any given snap, the odds are against him producing much. For teams in a must-win situation this week, it wouldn’t be crazy to bench Hopkins depending on which other wide receiver options are available.
Another name who could disappoint this week is Tevin Coleman. Even in a 37-8 rout of the Packers, Coleman carried the ball just 11 times for 39 yards and a touchdown, adding two catches on four targets. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. combined for eight carries and four targets behind Coleman. San Francisco continues to utilize a committee backfield, limiting Coleman’s touches and fantasy upside. And if Matt Breida is healthy enough to return this week, his presence could further muddy the waters. Coleman will need to score a short touchdown as he did against Green Bay to be a productive start in fantasy. However, the Packers’ defense is giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, whereas the Ravens’ defense is much more daunting, having allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Coleman, my RB35 this week, is nothing more than a touchdown-dependent RB3 or flex option.
Week 13 Flex Rankings (PPR)
Notable injured players currently assumed to be OUT for Week 13 include James Conner, Damien Williams, Marlon Mack, Matt Breida, Jordan Howard, Chris Thompson, T.Y. Hilton, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Golden Tate, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, A.J. Green, Austin Hooper, and Evan Engram. Rankings will be updated as injury news and practice updates are received.
Last updated on Thursday, November 28th at 11:20 AM CST.
| Rank | Player | Pos | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | |
| 2 | Michael Thomas | WR | |
| 3 | Davante Adams | WR | |
| 4 | Dalvin Cook | RB | |
| 5 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | |
| 6 | Tyreek Hill | WR | The hamstring injury is a concern, but if Hill is active, he's a must-start vs an OAK def that's allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing WRs. |
| 7 | Alvin Kamara | RB | |
| 8 | D.J. Moore | WR | Moore has averaged 11 targets per game since CAR's bye and gets a dysfunctional WAS def that benched Josh Norman. The new father should have a big game. |
| 9 | Le'Veon Bell | RB | |
| 10 | Leonard Fournette | RB | |
| 11 | Chris Godwin | WR | |
| 12 | D.J. Chark | WR | TB's pass rush getting to Nick Foles is a concern, but Chark should produce regardless vs this TB def giving up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs. |
| 13 | Saquon Barkley | RB | |
| 14 | Mike Evans | WR | |
| 15 | Julian Edelman | WR | |
| 16 | Aaron Jones | RB | |
| 17 | Adam Thielen | WR | SEA's def has allowed the 4th most receiving yards and rank just 14th in pass def DVOA. Thielen is a great play if healthy for Mon. |
| 18 | Tyler Lockett | WR | MIN's pass def is even worse than SEA's, ranked 16th in pass def DVOA. A Lockett who's close to fully healed from the shin injury could have a big night. |
| 19 | Nick Chubb | RB | |
| 20 | Tyler Boyd | WR | Andy Dalton's return should bode well for Boyd. He should be targeted heavily vs a Jets def allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing WRs. |
| 21 | Travis Kelce | TE | |
| 22 | Stefon Diggs | WR | See Thielen, Adam |
| 23 | Julio Jones | WR | Marshon Lattimore's possible return plus Jones's shoulder sprain likely not 100% healed are both factors likely to limit Jones's fantasy production. |
| 24 | Cooper Kupp | WR | |
| 25 | Todd Gurley | RB | |
| 26 | Josh Jacobs | RB | |
| 27 | D.K. Metcalf | WR | Like Lockett, Metcalf could explode with MIN's pass defense struggling, especially with Xavier Rhodes seemingly a shell of his former self. |
| 28 | DeVante Parker | WR | Parker is a borderline WR1 given that he's likely to see double digit targets again vs a PHI secondary allowing the 9th most fantasy points to WRs. |
| 29 | Derrick Henry | RB | |
| 30 | Miles Sanders | RB | Assuming Jordan Howard is out again, Sanders should continue seeing heavy usage vs a MIA def giving up the 4th most fantasy points to RBs. |
| 31 | Zach Ertz | TE | |
| 32 | Sony Michel | RB | HOU has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to RBs and has just given up 150 yards and a TD each to BAL and IND in back-to-back games. |
| 33 | Allen Robinson | WR | |
| 34 | Melvin Gordon | RB | |
| 35 | Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | |
| 36 | Jarvis Landry | WR | |
| 37 | George Kittle | TE | It's tough to ever bench Kittle, but BAL gives up the 5th fewest fantasy points to TEs. His ceiling is lower this week despite 129 yards and a TD vs GB. |
| 38 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | In the two prior games where Hopkins has faced Stephon Gilmore, he's logged just 6 catches for 85 yards. Hopkins is a low-floor, low-ceiling WR2. |
| 39 | Jonathan Williams | RB | With T.Y. Hilton's status uncertain, Williams should be in for another heavy workload vs a TEN def allowing the 12th most fantasy points to RBs. |
| 40 | Robert Woods | WR | |
| 41 | Austin Ekeler | RB | |
| 42 | Calvin Ridley | WR | |
| 43 | Phillip Lindsay | RB | |
| 44 | Amari Cooper | WR | Just a week after getting shut down by Stephon Gilmore, Cooper will face another tough matchup vs. Tre'Davious White. Expect another quiet game. |
| 45 | Courtland Sutton | WR | |
| 46 | Tyrell Williams | WR | |
| 47 | LeSean McCoy | RB | If KC builds a lead vs OAK, McCoy should get plenty of carries, as long as he doesn't fumble. There's upside here for McCoy to get 50+ yards and a score. |
| 48 | John Brown | WR | |
| 49 | Jamison Crowder | WR | |
| 50 | Michael Gallup | WR | With Amari Cooper likely to struggle vs Tre'Davious White in coverage, this could result in added targets for both Gallup and Cobb. |
| 51 | Deebo Samuel | WR | |
| 52 | Jared Cook | TE | Since NO's bye, Cook has been more involved as a receiver, averaging 5 catches for 69 yards per game over the last 3 weeks, and has scored 2 TDs. |
| 53 | Darrel Williams | RB | Damien Williams seems unlikely to suit up with a rib injury, which should make Darrel Williams the primary receiving back with a few carries as well. |
| 54 | Kareem Hunt | RB | |
| 55 | Hunter Henry | TE | |
| 56 | Christian Kirk | WR | |
| 57 | Robby Anderson | WR | |
| 58 | Darren Waller | TE | WIth Renfrow out with a punctured lung, Waller's target share could return to where it was early in the season, and OAK will likely need to throw vs KC. |
| 59 | Brandin Cooks | WR | |
| 60 | Alshon Jeffery | WR | |
| 61 | Devin Singletary | RB | |
| 62 | Anthony Miller | WR | Slay is likely to limit Robinson, and with Gabriel out, Miller should see high target volume vs a DET def giving up the 11th most fantasy points to WRs. |
| 63 | Keenan Allen | WR | |
| 64 | Russell Gage | WR | If Julio Jones's shoulder sprain limits his usage, Gage could again see double digit targets as he did last week vs TB. |
| 65 | Devonta Freeman | RB | |
| 66 | Joe Mixon | RB | The Jets boast a top run defense, and CIN hasn't utilized Mixon much as a receiver. He has little upside with Gio Bernard taking passing down snaps. |
| 67 | Randall Cobb | WR | See Gallup, Michael |
| 68 | Mark Andrews | TE | |
| 69 | Mecole Hardman | WR | Hardman played over 80% of snaps after Hill's injury vs LAC. If KC limits Hill's snaps as a precautionary measure, Hardman has big upside vs OAK. |
| 70 | Chris Conley | WR | TB's secondary gives up the most fantasy points to WRs, and Conley has seen the 2nd most targets behind Chark since Foles's return. |
| 71 | Mark Ingram | RB | SF allows the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, which will limit Ingram's upside. He'll likely need a TD to be worth starting this week. |
| 72 | Terry McLaurin | WR | |
| 73 | Kenyan Drake | RB | |
| 74 | Phillip Dorsett | WR | With Sanu likely out again, Dorsett is the no. 2 WR behind Edelman vs a HOU def devoid of pass rush allowing the 12th most fantasy points to WRs. |
| 75 | David Montgomery | RB | |
| 76 | Dede Westbrook | WR | |
| 77 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR | |
| 78 | Tarik Cohen | RB | |
| 79 | Rashaad Penny | RB | |
| 80 | Sterling Shepard | WR | Assuming both Tate and Engram are out, Shepard should be the most-targeted receiver with potential garbage time production as well. |
| 81 | Nyheim Hines | RB | |
| 82 | Ronald Jones | RB | |
| 83 | Marquise Brown | WR | |
| 84 | Benny Snell Jr. | RB | With Conner out last week, Snell surprisingly led the PIT backfield in touches, not Samuels. Assuming Conner is out again, Snell has upside. |
| 85 | Will Fuller | WR | |
| 86 | Allan Lazard | WR | |
| 87 | Curtis Samuel | WR | |
| 88 | Bo Scarbrough | RB | |
| 89 | Marvin Jones Jr. | WR | CHI allows the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, and DET is down to their 3rd string QB David Blough this week. |
| 90 | James White | RB | |
| 91 | Tyler Higbee | TE | With Everett limited with knee and ankle injuries, Higbee has top-5 TE potential vs an ARI def giving up the most fantasy points to opposing TEs. |
| 92 | James Washington | WR | |
| 93 | Darius Slayton | WR | Like Shepard, Slayton could benefit from garbage time opportunities in the second half of this game if GB pulls ahead early. |
| 94 | Mike Williams | WR | |
| 95 | Tevin Coleman | RB | |
| 96 | Chris Carson | RB | MIN's def is 4th best in rushing DVOA, and Carson's two fumbles vs PHI may have opened the door for more touches for Rashaad Penny going forward. |
| 97 | Kenny Golladay | WR | Like Jones, the matchup and QB situation are concerning. Even more so is Golladay's lower target share since Stafford has been out of the lineup. |
| 98 | Auden Tate | WR | |
| 99 | Kyle Rudolph | TE | Rudolph's target share could drop with Thielen back, but SEA is giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs in what should be a high-scoring affair. |
| 100 | A.J. Brown | WR |
For more fantasy football content or specific questions about your lineup, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng.
For a look at how the rankings break down at each position, please check out Mick Ciallela’s Week 13 Rankings.
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