The straight up picks on the season have been OK as I was 11-4 last week which brought my overall record to 115-61. I’ll take that, but I need to brush up on the over/under picks, as I’m just over .500. This week there are five games with a total in the 50’s. There’s a lot of points expected to be scored in Week 13 and I’m on the under in a lot of them. Good luck to all making Week 13 NFL picks.
We’ll keep track of all my picks throughout the season, including my losses! Over time, we’ll find out if you should back me or straight up fade me. Send your complaints to @chrismeaney.
Last week:
SU: 11-4
AS: 7-8
O/U: 6-9
Season total:
SU: 115-61
AS: 99-77
O/U: 94-81
Week 13 NFL Picks
New Orleans Saints -7 @ Dallas Cowboys (51.5)
SU: Saints
AS: Saints
O/U: Under
It’s hard to pick against the Saints these days when you see Drew Brees make it work with guys off the street. I expect the Cowboys to have some success slowing the pace down, which is why I’ll lean under, but I just can’t see anyone slowing down this offense. The Saints have been much better defensively as has Dallas. It’s crazy how much half a point matters to me, because I’m on Dallas in spots where they were +7.5.
Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers -14 (44.5)
SU: Packers
AS: Cardinals
O/U: Under
Green Bay will win this football game, but they shouldn’t be favored by two touchdowns against any team right now. Arizona has only allowed 16 passing touchdowns and they rank ninth in pass DVOA. Fourteen is a tough number, I was really confident about ARI +14.5 when it opened up. Three scores is a big difference.
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons – 1.5 (48)
SU: Falcons
AS: Falcons
O/U: Under
The Ravens opened up as 2.5 favorites and the line quickly changed in favor of the Falcons. Baltimore will slow the pace down and run the football, and they may have success doing that, but Atlanta will win when the game is on the line late. Falcons at home by a field goal.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins -4 (40)
SU: Dolphins
AS: Bills
O/U: Under
I jumped all over Buffalo +5.5 when this line opened up, and I still feel pretty strong about the Bills. Check back on Sunday, I may actually just pick them straight up! Buffalo ranks second on defense, according to Football Outsiders and number one against the pass.
Carolina Panthers -3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (54.5)
SU: Panthers
AS: Panthers
O/U: Over
The Panthers win in a shootout. TB has allowed the second-most points per game, the most passing touchdowns and the third-most rushing touchdowns. Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore will be too much for this awful defense. As for their offense, well… they rank first in yards and passing yards per game. Carolina’s defense has not been good of late.
Chicago Bears -4 @ New York Giants (44.5)
SU: Bears
AS: Bears
O/U: Under
Chase Daniel will make his second straight start in Week 13. Matt Nagy did a fantastic job with the game plan and he will again this week. Short quick throws from Daniel and another strong showing from the defense should be enough for a road win.
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans -5.5 (47)
SU: Texans
AS: Browns
O/U: Under
Houston opened up as 4.5 home favorites, and I was OK with that, but I still felt a bit uneasy. I think Cleveland will be able to keep this game close and the defense on both sides will make this game go under. This is a Duke Johnson Jr. game btw.
Denver Broncos -5 @ Cincinnati Bengals (44.5)
SU: Broncos
AS: Bengals
O/U: Under
The Bengals have been awful defensively and will throw out Jeff Driskel on offense. It sounds like A.J. Green will return which is great news for the offense, but it’s hard for me to pick them, even at home. Denver has played really good of late, but I only see them winning by a field goal on the road.
Indianapolis Colts -4 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (47)
SU: Colts
AS: Colts
O/U: Under
Andrew Luck can’t be stopped right now and it sounds like Jalen Ramsey may miss this game. Luck had his way with them three weeks ago with a healthy Ramsey. Cody Kessler may just be better for this team, but the loss of Leonard Fournette isn’t.
Los Angeles Rams -10 @ Detroit Lions (55)
SU: Rams
AS: Rams
O/U: Under
The Los Angeles Rams win this game pretty easily I’d say. Fresh off a bye against a Lions team hurting on both sides of the football, Josh Reynolds is a DFS play you should think of.
Kansas City Chiefs -14.5 @ Oakland Raiders (55.5)
SU: Chiefs
AS: Raiders
O/U: Over
Three scores is a lot for any team, especially on the road. Even if it is the high powered Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes didn’t cover against the Cardinals, Broncos (twice) or the 49ers when they were heavy favorites.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans -9 (40.5)
SU: Titans
AS: Jets
O/U: Under
I don’t expect a lot of points in this football game as it’s one of the totals I feel best about. Titans get it done via defense.
Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots -5 (49.5)
SU: Patriots
AS: Vikings
O/U: Under
This is another line that has moved since Monday morning. New England opened as 6.5 favorites and I like that more than five, but as you can see I’m on the Vikings regardless. The Pats are a hard team to pick against at home, but Minnesota should be able to do enough defensively to give Tom Brady some problems. They can dial up pressure with the best of them, plus they are strong against the run.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks -10 (46)
SU: Seahawks
AS: Seahawks
O/U: Under
Seattle is rolling right now and I have no problem taking them by 10 in a divisional game. San Francisco doesn’t have much to offer on either side of the ball and we know how well Seattle plays at home during this time of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (51.5)
SU: Steelers
AS: Steelers
O/U: Over
It’s too bad Melvin Gordon won’t be able to play in this game, but he may be able to in the rematch should these two meet up in the playoffs. There are just too many weapons on offense for Big Ben and company at home. Missing Gordon is the lone reason I feel PIT will win by more than a field goal.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles -6 (44)
SU: Eagles
AS: Redskins
O/U: Over
Both of these teams have enough injured players to make another team! The Eagles shouldn’t be favored by six against any team right now, even at home. It took a huge come back and a choke job by the Giants for Philly to win last week. Washington keeps this close.
Like these Week 13 NFL Picks? Get more Chris Meaney on his new podcast, By Any Means. Each week he’ll bring in guests from around the industry to break down all the fantasy news you need to know for your march to the championship.
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