They said we wouldn’t like him when he’s angry. We laughed. They said the Jaguars were a quality defense. We agreed. They said Dion Lewis graded out as a better running back than Derrick Henry. That may still be true. Regardless Henry absolutely smashed Thursday night and burned down the benches of thousands of fantasy teams. If you played against him, my condolences. If you started him, congratulations. You made an incredibly -EV decision that had almost every plausible statistical consideration going against Henry’s outburst but sometimes luck wins out. As the old adage says, sometimes “it’s better to be lucky than good.” Let’s hope for both with our Week 14 Starts and Sits.
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Start These Quarterbacks:
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Don’t let last week’s calamity spill over into this week’s analysis when deciding whether or not to start Andrew Luck. In these trying times of fantasy football when the stakes are the highest you must push aside previous disaster showings and “dance with the girl that brought you.” In this instance… that girl is awkward and bearded… but she brought you just the same.
Luck still ranks in the top three with 463 pass attempts on the season and faces a Houston defense who’s best feature is its stout defensive line. Luck need not worry however as his offensive line ranks fourth league-wide in terms of pass protection per football outsiders. Houston is also just a neutral matchup vs the pass in terms of yards, y/a, and TDs allowed.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers
Mayfield has oscillated recently between being near perfect in his game against Cincinnati in Week 12 and being dreadful against Houston with three interceptions a week later. I can see him getting back into the black in this one. Carolina isn’t an imposing pass defense, ranking just 21st by yardage so far this season. Their pass rush is also unspectacular as they have the ninth least sacks so far this season. Bet it all on Baker in Week 14.
Sit This Quarterback:
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Wentz has had a rough year so far, especially when you compare it to his brilliant 2017 season. This matchup against the Dallas Cowboys won’t help matters. According to ESPN, Dallas is the sixth best defense against the pass by yardage. The Cowboys have also allowed the third-fewest TDs through the air in 2018 and have yet to allow a single TD run by an opposing QB. Wentz has underwhelmed in two of his last three games and has not recorded a 3-TD performance since Week 8. Look for other options in Week 14.
Start These Wide Receivers
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
In line with my Andrew Luck recommendation, I believe his number one target will be a quality start this weekend. Hilton has averaged 10.7 targets in his last three games and continues to operate in an offense devoid of playmakers other than himself on the outside. As long as Luck gets time to throw, which he should based on the quality of his O-line, Hilton should continue his streak of solid games. Keep in mind that he has been battling an injury this week and only recorded a limited practice on Friday however. Check Sunday morning to make sure he plays.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Matthew Stafford has definitely taken a step back this season as he’s struggled to perform to the level of previous years under new HC Matt Patricia. Still, Golladay has had a decent year to date and is the current WR18. Much of this can be attributed to volume and Golladay should see plenty of that in this one. Without Kerryon Johnson in tow and only Bruce Ellington as his real competition, Golladay is his team’s main scoring threat and should cross the white line even against a stout Cardinals pass defense. Chalk up his poor Week 13 to the Rams’ pass rush. Things will be easier for the Lions’ O-line in this one.
Sit This Wide Receiver:
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers
With A.J. Green out for the remainder of the season most have penciled in Boyd as an assured top-15 WR for the rest of his 2018 breakout season. While I love his long term outlook and agree that end of season he will meet those numbers, this isn’t a week I’d be starting him. Why? Casey Hayward and slot man Desmond King. Both of the Chargers corners have helped that team to a ninth place rank against the pass by yardage this season. They have also made the Chargers a top-third unit against WRs so far in 2018 and an excellent group against the slot specifically. Without the benefit of Green to shoulder the load of being the defenses main focus, Boyd will find himself doubled often in Week 14.
Start These Running Backs:
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons
The smash play of the week, Aaron Jones may have scared some fantasy gamers last week as his role seemed to revert to the near 50-50 split he shared with Jamaal Williams at the beginning of the season. Though he was able to save his day with a score, Jones only amassed 52 total yards on 15 touches in Week 13. With HC Mike McCarthy relieved of his duties after the loss to the Cardinals last week, Jones should have his bell-cow role restored. The Falcons will play their part in helping Jones provide those who roster him with stellar returns as they rank as the sixth-worst rush defense by yardage and the fourth-worst in terms of TDs against. The Packers fifth ranked run blocking O-line by adjusted line yards per football outsiders should make quick work of the Falcons in what is being billed as a shootout.
Adrian Peterson, Washington Redskins vs New York Giants
If Washington has any chance of moving the ball in any manner for the remainder of the season they will have to rely on their backs and banged up O-line. Injuries to Alex Smith and Colt McCoy have further hampered an already shaky passing offense and they will now face a Giants rush defense that has ranked near the bottom of the league since the “snacks” Harrison trade. Expect an uptick in volume for AP and Chris Thompson in Week 14 as HC Jay Gruden looks to minimize the damage QB Mark Sanchez can do to the offense. It wont be pretty, but the touches will be there for AP in Week 14.
Sit This Running Back:
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers
In a game that could get away from the Bengals quickly, I don’t expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leaders at his position in Week 14. The Chargers defense has received reinforcements in the form of Joey Bosa to add to what already was a stout rush defense (11th by yardage). Though Mixon probably should be more involved in the Bengals passing game, the presence of Gio Bernard limits his upside in that regard. If the Bengals are down multiple scores at halftime, which I expect, Mixon could be a victim of negative game script on Sunday.
Start This TE
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers
This prediction is in line with my expectation that Baker Mayfield will have a quality performance at home against the Carolina Panthers in Week 14. The Panthers themselves have been a TE sieve all season, ranking third-worst against the position through 13 games in 2014. The Browns are sure to have noticed this, and will likely pepper Njoku with targets in an attempt to take advantage of the mismatches their young playmaker can create in the seam. The last time Njoku faced a bottom five defense against the TE (Week 12, Bengals) he came away with five catches for 63 yards and a score. Expect the same in Week 14.
Start These Defenses:
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Sit These Defenses
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
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