The All-Star break is here, making this an excellent time to take stock of our fantasy baseball lineups. The latest edition of Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers is here to help with that assessment. We’ll highlight players who finished the first half of the season on a strong note and others who struggled — and what it means from a fantasy perspective. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to the Week 16 risers and fallers for fantasy baseball.
On a housekeeping note, this series will pick back up in Week 18 due to the short week. Enjoy the baseball breather, and good luck in the second half!
Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
Stats from 7/8 – 7/14
Risers
Rece Hinds (OF — CIN)
Rece Hinds was a beast last week. Following his call-up on July 8, he stuffed the stat sheet with five dingers, seven runs, 11 RBI and two steals. Hinds tallied 11 hits in 26 at-bats, including three doubles and a triple, and hit the ball with authority. He finished the week with a 31.6% barrel rate and led the league with a 1.675 OPS.
Hinds will not continue producing at this level, and it’s worth pointing out that there’s some big swing-and-miss to his game — he carried a 34.9% strikeout rate throughout the minors. However, Hinds is scorching hot right now, and we take production where we can find it. Hinds is well worth taking a shot on — just be aware it may be a short ride.
Tyler Stephenson (C — CIN)
Catchers continue to churn out hot weeks this season, and Tyler Stephenson is the latest backstop on a heater. Stephenson racked up 10 hits in 29 at-bats, including three doubles. He also flexed some muscle with four homers and a .517 ISO.
Stephenson has come on strong in July, slashing .267/.313/.622 with a 151 wRC+ across 48 plate appearances. He’s also made some loud contact in that span with a 44.7% hard-hit and 10.5% barrel rate. Stephenson bats in the middle of the order and ranks as the 12th-best catcher in the first half of the season. He deserves attention in both one- and two-catcher leagues.
Colt Keith (2B/3B — DET)
Colt Keith finished the first half of the season on a high note. He collected eight hits in 22 at-bats, including a double and a triple. He also popped a couple of homers and walked at a robust 21.4% rate.
Keith has been on fire in July, especially in the power department. He cranked five long balls in 13 games this month while rocking a 1.267 OPS. While that pace won’t last, the rookie looks like he’s starting to click at the plate. He makes a ton of contact in the zone (91.5%) and has a .253/.309/394 slash line on the year with nine home runs and five steals across 317 plate appearances. Keith bats primarily out of the second spot in the order and should be a solid source of run production while swinging a hot bat.
Eugenio Suarez (3B — ARI)
Eugenio Suarez put together a nice week. He went 7-for-25 (.280) with four home runs, seven runs scored, and nine RBI. He also barreled the ball at a 16.7% clip and finished with a .400 ISO for the week.
Overall, Suarez has had a down season, but he’s come on strong in July. He hit four home runs in 13 games this month while getting on base at a healthy .442 clip and sporting a 1.147 OPS across 52 plate appearances. Suarez also improved his plate discipline of late, upping his walk rate from 6.3% to start the season to 14.5% since June 1. If Suarez can maintain his plate gains and continue making quality contact, he could be a useful bat in the second half of the season.
Fallers
David Fry (C/1B/OF — CLE)
David Fry has been ice-cold of late. Last week, he failed to record a hit 17 at-bats and walked at a below-average 5% clip. He also started in only four of seven games for the week.
Fry’s production has all but stopped since the calendar flipped to June. He has a .202/.266/.293 slash line with zero home runs, two runs scored, and six RBI across his last 110 plate appearances. Fry’s elite walk rate has evaporated in this span, going from 16.9% on the year to 6.3% since June 1. Fry already doesn’t get everyday playing time. Combine that with a sharp decline in production and plate skills, and he could ride the pine even more frequently moving forward.
Thairo Estrada (2B/SS — SFG)
Thairo Estrada struggled in his return from the IL last week. He logged two hits across 22 at-bats and failed to draw a walk. Estrada hasn’t looked great since the beginning of June. In his last 26 games, he has a .416 OPS and a 19 wRC+ with one home run and zero steals across 103 plate appearances.
The big knock on Estrada this season is that the steals have disappeared. He has only one swipe on two attempts across 333 plate appearances — a far cry from the 23 and 21 steals he logged in the last two seasons. Estrada brings 15-home run power to the fantasy table and is batting .221 on the year (.230 xBA). If he remains stagnant on the basepaths, Estrada’s fantasy value will take a significant hit. He’s a better play in 15-teamers.
Taylor Ward (OF — LAA)
Taylor Ward closed out the first half of the season on a sour note. He went 2-for-22 (.091) with one double and struck out at a 41.7% rate. Unfortunately, Ward has struggled at the plate after getting hit in the helmet on June 30. Since July 1, he has a .130/.200/.152 slash line and is striking out at an uncharacteristic 38% clip (career 23.7%). Additionally, he’s been gun-shy about attacking pitches inside the plate. You can hardly blame him, though, since Ward’s 2023 season ended early after a pitch hit him in the face last July.
Ultimately, Ward’s fantasy value remains in limbo until he gets more comfortable at the plate — which could be easier said than done. However, keep tabs on his progress in the second half of the season. Ward sported a weighty .356 xwOBA and a career-high 15.8% barrel rate on the year before getting hit in the head.