Week 16 Flex Rankings: Bad Beats and Good Causes

No lead is ever safe in fantasy football until every NFL game for the week has concluded and every stat correction has been made. One play can change everything, resulting in triumph for one team and anguish for another. Or sometimes, it’s a series of events that leads to victory or defeat, so inevitable that fantasy owners can only sit back and watch the impending train wreck with horror. One such case was this past Sunday when I entered the afternoon games with a fair lead over my good friend and co-host of our podcast, Nick. Of course, our friendship was tabled for the weekend, as I saw him only as my opponent for the fantasy semi-finals.

Surprisingly enough, neither of our teams had any players in the Sunday night or Monday night games, so the afternoon slate would decide our fates. Among others, Nick had Julio Jones as one of his starting wide receivers, and I had George Kittle at flex having started Travis Kelce at tight end. The rest is history. Jones and Kittle somehow had the exact same stat line facing off against each other, each logging 13 receptions for 134 yards. The difference was that Jones also scored two touchdowns, the second of which came on Atlanta’s final offensive drive late in the game. Even before the call was officially overturned by the officials, I knew that it was a touchdown. My girlfriend, Rachel, who puts up with my Sunday ritual of couch surfing, was sitting next to me at the time. Upon the official ruling that it was indeed a touchdown, my furious outburst startled her, and the specific words used will not be published here. That last-second score sealed the fate of both the 49ers and as well as that of my fantasy team.

“No one cares about your fantasy team”, and I get that. But this bad beat is just the first half of this story. After an hour so of brooding and some not so kind words (sorry Julio!), I remembered that I’ve been on the other side of these bad beats before, including an unlikely title run in the same league back in 2017. That was when Jones won me a fantasy championship with his seven-catch, 149-yard performance against the Saints in Week 16. I was so ecstatic about that championship win that I decided to donate part of my winnings to a charity that the highest-scoring player that week, Jones supported. That year, his choice for his My Cause, My Cleats was the International Justice Mission, a global organization that partners with local advocates and groups to help end modern-day slavery and human trafficking.

Since then, I’ve made it a point to donate 10 percent of fantasy championship winnings each year to a charity supported by the top scorer that week. I’ve seen similar proposals on Twitter and elsewhere, so I will in no way take credit for this, but I do staunchly support it. If you’re reading this and are in a stable financial situation playing fantasy mostly for fun and not the money, then please consider donating a portion of your winnings. Whether it’s 10 percent or just $10, whatever you feel comfortable with giving could go a long way to helping good causes and those in need. And if anything, consider it good fantasy karma for next season as well.

That’s the end of my spiel. First things first, you have to win the fantasy title to donate a portion of the prize! So let’s get to the fantasy advice that will hopefully lead your team to victory this week. Lineup decisions are often tough calls, so here are my Week 16 flex rankings, listing the top-100 PPR options at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. With a lot of injured players questionable to play, including big names like Dalvin Cook, Chris Godwin, and more, make sure to check back for injury updates before finalizing lineups. Congrats if you’ve made it to the fantasy championship game, and best of luck in your match-ups this week!

For more help getting ready for Week 16, check out our Waiver Wire Recommendations. 

Shooting for Shootouts

We discussed the Texans last week in a potential shootout against the Titans, and there was indeed plenty of scoring in that game. As we discussed in Week 15, the most accurate evaluation of the Texans is probably that they have a good but inconsistent offense paired with a pretty bad defense. With Tampa Bay also boasting a good offense and a bad defense, this could be another high-scoring game for Houston with Vegas projecting a combined 49.5 points scored, the third-highest total of Week 16.

Deshaun Watson should again be an excellent start this week, and Hopkins is also a premium option, coming in as the No. 2 overall flex option with the Buccaneers allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. The big surprise last week was Kenny Stills, who scored two touchdowns against Tennessee. However, Will Fuller was the second most-targeted player behind Hopkins by a large margin in Week 15. Fuller had five catches for 61 yards on seven targets compared to just three catches for 35 yards on three targets for Stills. Fuller remains the better fantasy play as my WR20 given his higher target share compared to Stills, who comes in at WR47.

There’s plenty of fantasy potential on the Tampa Bay side as well. Though Winston has been inconsistent over that span in real life, throwing 14 interceptions in the eight games since the Buccaneers’ Week 7 bye, he’s been an excellent fantasy quarterback. Since Week 8, Winston has been the second highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy, trailing only Lamar Jackson. Though Winston will be without his top three wide receivers with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Scotty Miller all out with hamstring injuries, he remains a solid fantasy QB1 option.

In fact, this game offers quite a few players with league-winning potential who were on the waiver wire just last week or are still available in many leagues. In two games with Evans out, Breshad Perriman has scored four touchdowns on just 11 targets. While there’s still risk in starting Perriman, he should get a healthy target share with Godwin also now out. Perriman is my WR14 this week facing a Houston defense ranked seventh-worst against the pass in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) per Football Outsiders. Justin Watson also has some potential in PPR formats at WR45. Though he only contributed two receptions for 17 yards against Detroit, that was with Godwin and Miller playing for the majority of the game. Their 11 combined targets are now also up for grabs.

And let’s not forget about the tight ends. It’s been a brutal season for O.J. Howard after being highly touted in fantasy circles this preseason, but he may finally vindicate himself when it matters the most. Howard saw a season-high eight targets against the Lions, reeling in four of those for 46 yards. Cameron Brate also benefited from the absence of healthy receivers, seeing seven targets of his own, the second-most he’s gotten in a game this year. Both are viable flex options this week with Houston allowing the eight-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Howard is my TE6 with the potential to finish as the top fantasy tight end this week, and Brate has a decent floor and ceiling as well and comes in at TE13.

Houston is the better team on paper, but Tampa Bay’s defensive line could disrupt Watson and the Texans’ offense enough to eke out a narrow home victory. Even with the Buccaneers playing without their top three receivers, I am projecting a close 30-28 victory over the Texans.

Benching Big Names?

It’s unusual to be concerned about a team that just beat the Rams 44-21 last Sunday, but a lot of Cowboys players are going to be risky starts for the fantasy championship week. The concern stems from a right shoulder injury Dak Prescott sustained against the Rams. While Prescott is expected to play against the Eagles, Jason Garrett stated on Wednesday that Prescott is “not very functional at the moment”. The fact that Prescott did not throw at all during practice is not reassuring, and his ability to throw, or lack thereof, greatly lowers the floor and ceiling of both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Despite the great matchup against a Philadelphia team that ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA, worry about Prescott’s shoulder places him outside of my top-12 fantasy quarterbacks this week. And while Ezekiel Elliott should see a large workload regardless and is still a safe RB1, I’ve also downgraded Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup to WR23 and WR38, respectively. These rankings may change if Prescott gets in a full practice or two before the end of the week, but that doesn’t sound likely at this point.

Another name to be wary of starting this week is Julian Edelman. Already facing a tough matchup against a Buffalo defense that ranks third in pass defense DVOA, Edelman could be further hampered by a knee injury that’s he’s been battling over the last few weeks. Though he suited up against the Bengals, Edelman looked tentative on his routes and tallied just two catches for nine yards. Details emerged on Monday that Edelman is dealing with a potentially serious tendon injury in his left knee. There’s speculation that it could be tendonitis or even a tear to his patellar tendon, both injuries that could worsen or even end his season if Edelman continues to play through it. Either way, a limited Edelman against a top-ranked Bills secondary bodes ill for his fantasy outlook this week. I have Edelman ranked as just my WR42 and would strongly consider other options for your fantasy championship lineup. It’s not out of the question that Edelman could be in a decoy role and held without a catch against the Bills even if he’s active.

Week 16 Flex Rankings (PPR)

Notable injured players currently assumed to be OUT for Week 16 include Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, Damien Williams, Jordan Howard, Chris Godwin, Taylor Gabriel, and Gerald Everett. Rankings will be updated as injury news and practice updates are received.

Last updated on Friday, December 20th at 11:54 AM CST. 

For more fantasy football content or specific questions about your lineup, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng.

For a look at how the rankings break down at each position, take a look at Mick Ciallela’s Week 16 Rankings.

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