I want to start this with Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all of those that celebrate!
We are at the end of the regular season and that means the playoffs are here. If you were unaware one of the good things I do is a run a playoff challenge for Ride Hard Breathe Easy. This organization does a lot of good helping to alleviate the suffering of lung cancer patients.
If you are interested in playing please feel free to reach out to me on X @MikeReedyFF
With that said I hope you all enjoy the Holidays with family and friends and raise a cup of cheer for me. Now let us get to the Money Makers and the Heartbreakers for Week 16.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
Week 16 Money Makers💰
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray
An awful lot of people are down on Kyler Murray. He has been up and down a bit this season. He now has one of the easiest matchups he has had all season in Week 16. The Cardinals will play the Panthers who give up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. In the past two games the Panthers have given up 3 touchdowns to Jalen Hurts in Week 14 and in Week 15 3 more touchdowns to Cooper Rush. This is a week to play Kyler Murray.
$6,100 on DraftKings
$8,000 on FanDuel
Josh Allen
If you want to pay up there is no better option than Josh Allen. In the past three games, Allen has scored 13 touchdowns. The Patriots are up in Week 16 and they did a good job on Kyler Murray last week. But in the three games prior to that, they gave up 11 touchdowns. Allen is probably good for three total touchdowns in Week 16.
$8,700 on DraftKings
$9,400 on FanDuel
Mac Jones
I am going way out on a limb and probably way too daring but hear me out. Jones has multiple touchdowns in two of the last three games. The Raiders who are up in Week 16 have given up with 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in 6 of the last 7 games. Jones actually has something to play for and is up against a defense you can throw on. Good GPP play this week.
$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel
Other Quarterback DFS Picks for Week 16
- Drake Maye
$5,800 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel - Drew Lock
$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,400 on FanDuel - Aaron Rodgers
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,300 on FanDuel
Running Backs
Jerome Ford
In Week 15 Ford filled in for Nick Chubb with 104 total yards and a touchdown. That was against the toughest run defense in the league. In Week 16 the Browns will play the Bengals who are just average against the run. The Browns will also have a change at quarterback which means we should see a lot of touches for Ford. This is a nice volume play in Week 16. Ford is going to going to get touches like F-150’s coming off an assembly line.
$5,600 on DraftKings
$6,600 on FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
Robinson has 23 or more touches in three straight games. Rolling up fantasy points with all those touches. In Week 16 he gets to play against the Giants run defense that gives up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. With the change at quarterback from Kirk Cousins to Michael Penix I expect the touch count to stay high for Bijan in Week 16. Bijan is mustard this week. (sorry, I never make this lame joke but felt I had to this week)
$8,100 on DraftKings
$8,900 on FanDuel
Jahmyr Gibbs
David Montgomery is OUT. Jahmyr Gibbs has been a beast all season. In Week 16 the Lions play the Bears. The Bears give up the fifth most fantasy points to running backs. In Week 13 Gibbs had 104 total yards against the Bears. This game, like every Lions game, has a relatively high over/under of 48 points. I like Gibbs to get an influx of touches with Monty out. He is most likely going to be VERY chalky this week.
$7,500 on DraftKings
$8,300 on FanDuel
Other Running Back DFS Picks for Week 16
- James Conner
$7,100 on DraftKings
$8,400 on FanDuel - James Cook
$7,000 on DraftKings
$8,700 on FanDuel - Alexander Mattison
$5,100 on DraftKings
$5,600 on FanDuel
NOTE: James Cook and Isaac Guerendo also have great matchups this week.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The Vikings give up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Seahawks play the Vikings in Week 16. JSN leads the Seahawks in target share with 23%. He has 114 targets so far this season. 20 different wide receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Vikings this season. With the target volume and production JSN gets, he will make it 21 this week.
$6,000 on DraftKings
$7,900 on FanDuel
Malik Nabers
The Giants are a mess. There is one bright spot and that is Malik Nabers. It is because he has both a lot of talent and a lot of targets. In the past three games Nabers has seen 37 targets. Nabers has 140 targets this season from 4 different quarterbacks. That is a 28% target share of the Giants passes. The volume will be there. The Falcons are the opponent in Week 16 and they do not defend the pass well.
$6,300 on DraftKings
$8,200 on FanDuel
Ja’Marr Chase
I know I am going very pricey at wide receiver with the guys I am writing up. Chase is pretty much in must-play territory for me this week. The Bengals play the Browns in Week 16. The Browns give up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing team’s wide receivers. When the Bengals played the Browns in Week 7 Chase had 5 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown. Since then, he has had double-digit targets in six out of 7 games. He has 102 receptions, 1413 yards and 15 touchdowns already on the season. I think you should Chase the production here in Week 16.
$8,500 on DraftKings
$9,500 on FanDuel
Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 16
- Davante Adams
$7,100 on DraftKings
$8,400 on FanDuel - Keenan Allen
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,200 on FanDuel - Brian Thomas Jr.
$6,300 on DraftKings
$7,300 on FanDuel
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers
Bowers production has been down for the last two weeks. That was due to his target volume. The Raiders play the Jaguars in Week 16, the Jags give up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. We are looking for a bounce-back performance from Bowers this week.
$6,500 on DraftKings
$7,700 on FanDuel
Trey McBride
McBride has four straight weeks of double-digit targets and in turn double digit fantasy points. In Week 16 he gets a Panthers defense that gives up the most touchdowns to tight ends. Tights ends have scored 10 touchdowns this season against the Panthers’ defense. McBride has lots of targets (116), catches (89) and yards (938) this season but has yet to catch his first touchdown. The volume will be there and the Panthers’ defense stinks.
$6,200 on DraftKings
$7,500 on FanDuel
Brenton Strange
We already know that the Jaguars and Raiders play this week. The Raiders give up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams tight ends. So the match up is right. In Week 15 Strange saw 12 targets which he turned into 11 receptions and 73 yards. That was a 26% target share and the second most on the team. Mac Jones will be throwing the ball again this week. It will not be Strange to plug Brenton in.
$3,500 on DraftKings
$5,200 on FanDuel
Other Tight End DFS Picks for Week 16
- David Njoku
$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,500 on FanDuel - Chig Okonkwo
$3,400 on DraftKings
$5,100 on FanDuel
DEF
Falcons
In Week 15 the Falcons had 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, a fumble recovery, a safety and 2 blocked kicks. The Falcons have something to play for with a chance to win their division. The Ginats meanwhile have nothing to win by winning. They also give up the fourth most points to opposing teams defenses. The Falcons should smash again in Week 16.
$3,7700 on DraftKings
$4,000 on FanDuel
Colts
The Colts defense is OK. The Titans offense on the other hand likes to turn the ball over. They also do not score a lot of points. The Titans have consistently allowed fantasy defenses to score the most fantasy points against them weekly this season. In Week 15 the Bengals defense scored 19 fantasy points against the Titans. The Bengals defense is not being confused with the top defenses in the league as well.
$3,000 on DraftKings
$4,800 on FanDuel
Bengals
Speaking of the Bengals, here they are again. This week they play the Browns. Over the past three weeks the Browns have given up 51 fantasy points to opponent’s defenses. That is an average of 1 per week. I am doing my best defense whisperer performance I can this week. “Pssst, play the Bengals defense again.”
$3,300 on DraftKings
$4,400 on FanDuel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson
The Steelers are the opponent in Week 16. In Week 11 the Ravens and the Steelers and Jackson had his worst game of the season with 20 yards and only 1 touchdown. Now if you have him in season long play him. The last three games the Steelers have given up multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks. So, there is a chance for a big game at home, but I’ll pass in DFS.
Jalen Hurts
The Eagles play the Commanders in Week 16. The Eagles have become a run first team with Barkley and Hurts leading the way. The Commanders are actually pretty tough on quarterbacks. In Week 11 these two teams met, and Hurts scored one rushing touchdown. He is another I am avoiding in DFS but would play in season long.
Jayden Daniels
On the other side of the ball Daniels has had struggles against the Eagles in that same Week 11 game. This is one of those strange games that could be a shootout or a low-scoring slugfest. Say no, no in DFS.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon
In Week 16 the Texans will play Chiefs. The Chiefs give up the least amount of fantasy points to running backs. Mixon is cleared to play from his ankle injury. So, he is yet another player I would play in season long, but I am not willing to pay up in DFS for him in this match-up.
Kyren Williams
The Jets defend running backs exceptionally well. The Rams play the Jets in Week 16. Williams has seen his touch volume drop since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have both come back to the lineup. So, I expect Williams to produce quality fantasy numbers in Week 16. I really do, I just think I don’t want to pay for him in Week 16 in DFS.
Isaiah Pacheco
Pacheco appears to be part of a three-headed running back by committee since returning to the lineup. If you know anything at all about fantasy that is a situation to avoid.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin
In Week 11 Mclaurin was not so scary as he had 1 catch for 10 yards. The Eagles give up the least amount of fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. Instead of passing to Terry I will pass on Terry in Week 16.
Amon-ra St. Brown
In Week 13 the Lions and Bears played. The Sun God had an overcast day with 5 receptions for 73 yards. I would expect some of the same in Week 16. He may get an uptick in targets with David Montgomery out but those touches will probably go elsewhere.
Jauan Jennings
The Niners play the Dolphins in Week 16. The Dolphins give up the second fewest amount of fantasy points to wide receivers. To top it off in 3 out of the last 4 games Jennings has not scored more than 7 fantasy points. Unless I had no other options I am out on Jennings.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce
Noah Gray seems to be getting all the touchdowns at tight end. Kelce is getting production in receptions and yards though. The Texans are up in Week 16, they happen to be pretty tough on tight ends. So with Gray getting the red zone looks I am out on Kelce this week.
Tucker Kraft
Kraft is involved in the Packers’ passing game. But he is one of ten different players to see double-digit targets this season for the Packers. The Packers’ passing offense is good, the problem is there are way too many mouths to feed. They spread the ball around, and it is anyone’s guess who will benefit from week to week.
Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in targets, receptions, and receiving yards this season. He still doesn’t have a touchdown. The Patriots also play the Bills in Week 16. The Bills are a top-10 team at defending the tight end. I just threw up in my mouth over this one. My heart is broken, and we haven’t even got to Week 16 yet.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!