I went 2-1 in last week’s NFL player props column. That has often been the default result, as I am now 27-17 through 14 weeks. Since I put out three props per week, I am guaranteed a winning regular season with a couple of weeks to spare. While that feels nice, I do not want to settle. I intend to finish the regular season strong. With that in mind, I have identified several spots I like this week. Here are three of my favorite Week 16 NFL player props.
NFL Week 16 Player Props
Trey McBride to Score a Touchdown (+125, DraftKings)
My first Week 16 NFL player prop is the perfect marriage between matchup and narrative. Embattled wide receiver Diontae Johnson holds the NFL record for most receptions in a season without a touchdown catch. He set the record two years ago with 86 catches as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers. After last week’s nine-catch effort, Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride now has 89 catches this year. He has yet to catch a touchdown pass. Ironically, McBride has scored two touchdowns this year. He recovered a fumble in the end zone and also rushed for a score. However, this record is a dubious distinction that both McBride and the Cardinals are well aware of and want to avoid.
Quarterback Kyler Murray even took to social media this week to state that McBride “will touch the endzone soon”. While touchdowns can be tricky to predict, the matchup is certainly right for McBride to score. Arizona is facing the Carolina Panthers in Week 16. Carolina has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. That is the highest number in the NFL. They also rank 30th in the NFL in DVOA versus enemy tight ends. This is a favorable matchup for McBride, and Arizona seems intent on making sure McBride does not finish the season without a receiving touchdown. I am betting on Sunday being the day McBride takes his name out of the NFL record books.
Brenton Strange OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-135, BetMGM)
Two weeks ago, Jaguars tight end Evan Engram suffered a torn labrum that prematurely ended his 2024 season. In his absence, Jacksonville has turned to second-year tight end Brenton Strange. And they wasted little time getting him involved as a passing threat. Strange caught 11 of 12 targets last week and finished with 73 yards. He should continue to be one of Mac Jones’ top targets when the Jaguars face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16. Las Vegas has been one of the most generous teams to opposing tight ends this year. Tight ends have accounted for 83 receptions and 908 yards against the Raiders this season. Both of those numbers are the fourth-highest in the NFL. They have allowed at least 68 receiving yards to five of the last seven starting tight ends they have faced.
When Engram missed four games earlier in the year with a hamstring injury, Strange averaged three catches and 30 yards. But those were games in which Trevor Lawrence was behind center. The Jaguars also had Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis as suitable targets during that stretch. Nowadays, Brian Thomas and perhaps Parker Washington are Strange’s greatest threats for targets. And Mac Jones is much more apt to play it safe in comparison to Lawrence. Lawrence’s aDOT (average depth of target) was 9.4 yards downfield this season. Jones has a 7.8 aDOT. Strange may not see 12 targets every week, but I think the sportsbooks are undervaluing him. He is a second-round NFL draft pick and has a solid athletic profile. I believe he will exceed 36 receiving yards, and may even sprinkle on a receiving yards ladder.
Bucky Irving OVER 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115, BetRivers)
My one loss last week was picking an NFC South running back to exceed expectations against the Dallas Cowboys. The play backfired in a big way, as Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard finished with just 32 rushing yards. So naturally, I am running a similar play this week. This time, I am picking Buccaneers back, Bucky Irving. I am taking him to surpass his total scrimmage yards on Sunday night. Irving has been good to us lately, and I expect that to continue in this matchup.
Dallas has been a decent run defense over the past month, winning three of four games. However, they are still well below average for the season. The Cowboys rank last in the NFL in EPA (expected points added per play) versus the run. They have given up 4.85 adjusted line yards per run, the fourth-worst in the NFL. Dallas has also allowed an average of 1.56 yards per rush before contact. That is the second-highest mark in the league. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is one of its strengths. They produce 4.85 adjusted line yards per rush (second-best) and 1.44 yards per rush before contact (seventh-most) in the NFL. This is a matchup the Buccaneers should win in the trenches, leading to production from Irving.
Irving has been one of the most productive running backs in the league on a per-touch basis. He has earned more opportunities recently and has made the most of those chances. Irving has earned at least a dozen touches in eight games this year. The rookie has recorded at least 77 yards from scrimmage in every single instance. Irving has at least 16 touches in four of his last five games. He only fell short of this number in Week 14 when he left early with a back injury. Following the team’s Week 11 bye, Irving has registered 152, 187, and 115 total yards in the three games he has completed. Irving has been limited in practice as he tends to his injuries. But if he plays from start to finish, he should be able to surpass this scrimmage yards number.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!