With another week down, let’s keep things going. Our Week 15 picks were perfect which is always the desired result.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 16 of the NFL season. Before the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 16 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
After a shocking victory two weeks ago, the New England Patriots got back to their losing ways. Following a rough start to the season, the Broncos are up to 7-7 and second place in their division. Bradley Zappe isn’t exactly a threat, and the Patriots appear likely to be without Rhamondre Stevenson once again. Even though the Broncos defense has struggled this season, New England is simply not good enough to truly take advantage of it.
At 13.3 points scored per game, the Patriots are truly lacking in firepower. Despite Saturday’s loss in Detroit, Russell Wilson does have the Broncos playing well for the most part this year. With 10 touchdowns on the season, Courtland Sutton is having a strong season with 10 touchdowns which gives Wilson a legit weapon. As far as excitement goes, this matchup isn’t exactly high on the list, but the Broncos are the better team.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
While we can’t ignore what the Las Vegas Raiders did last week, a large part of that sits with their opponents. The Los Angeles Chargers are truly that bad and the Raiders took advantage of it. It is a divisional game, the fact that the Chiefs are facing the Raiders at home certainly helps here.
The Chiefs are not exactly dominating the league this season, but at 9-5 in a game in which they have a clear advantage, they are still one of the top survivor picks of the week. Betting against Patrick Mahomes is always going to be difficult and we know all about Travis Kelce. After a multi-game absence, Isiah Pacheco is back on the field which also helps the Chiefs offense. Even though we could say it’s a down year for Mahomes, he still has 25 touchdowns. Additionally, Kansas City has the 10th-best scoring option in the league.
Pair that with a defense that allows the third-fewest points per game, and the Chiefs should pick up victory number 10.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers
Wow. I know that isn’t groundbreaking fantasy football analysis, but it is hard to find many other words to describe what happened to the Chargers on Thursday. They were simply dreadful. And while they had a few extra days off, with Easton Stick under center, it is hard to expect things to be much better.
The Bills on the other hand are coming off a monster victory against Dallas in which the Cowboys had no chance. Buffalo is still trying to find their groove on the season, and a blowout of the Chargers helps them to move forward. Keenan Allen has yet to return to practice this week and that makes that even tougher on Los Angeles.
Even with Justin Herbert healthy most of the season, the Chargers are still just 17th in the league with 22 points per game. Buffalo has a nice point differential (27.1 vs 18.1) while Los Angeles is allowing the fifth most points in the league. This is simply too much of a gap for the Chargers to close which makes the Bills one of our survivor picks.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Targeting a team on a three-game losing streak is an interesting strategy when it comes to survivor picks. Prior to that point though, we should note that the Philadelphia Eagles were 10-1 on the season. Their latest loss certainly left a sour taste in the mouths of many as the game came down to the wire and Philadelphia was unable to pull out a victory.
Now, as they return home against the Giants, their motivation is heightened for a rivalry game. While the Giants have been playing better as of late, Philadelphia is still the better team. Even as they are playing better, New York is still scoring just 13.5 points per game (31st in the league) and they are not strong to take advantage of the Eagles’ struggling defense. The game will come down to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense taking advantage of New York’s defense.
Games to Fade
With the majority of the games being evenly contested, for better or worse, there is nothing notable to fade with our survivor picks.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Philadelphia
Line 2
San Francisco, Dallas, Miami, Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo
Line 3
San Francisco, Kansas City
Line 4
Miami, Denver
Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty