Last week was by far my worst week regarding sneaky starts. The timing was less than ideal, to say the least. It was the kind of week where you do not need to pore over the game film after the fact. You need to turn the page and move on. So that is exactly what I tend to do. Below are my Week 16 sneaky starts at each position. All these players are started in less than 50 percent of Fantrax leagues. All the players below should exceed expectations and, in most cases, are viable starting candidates this week.
Week 16 Sneaky Starts for Fantasy Football
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Current Start Percentage: 43 Percent (18th among Quarterbacks)
My Current Week 16 Rank: QB10
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has not exactly wowed with his passing prowess since being reinserted as the team’s starter last month. Richardson has averaged just over 180 passing yards in four games. However, he has been much more effective as a runner, particularly down by the goal line. Richardson has rushed for four scores in those four games, helping him to average 19.9 fantasy points per game in that span. While it can be difficult to rely on a rushing touchdown from a quarterback, Richardson does have a favorable Week 16 matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has given up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns and ninth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this year. They have also given up 22 passing touchdowns, which is a nice fallback in case the Colts can get their passing game on track.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
- Current Start Percentage: 45 Percent (17th among quarterbacks)
- My Current Week 16 Rank: QB14
Running Backs
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
Current Start Percentage: 31 Percent (36th among Running Backs)
My Current Week 16 Rank: RB30
The pickings are slim on the running back front this week. 30 running backs are currently started in at least 50 percent of Fantrax leagues. That means we are well into Flex/RB3 territory before we begin. But hey, they are sneaky starts for a reason, right? My first pick for this week is Jerome Ford of the Cleveland Browns. With Nick Chubb again injured, Ford should be in line to dominate touches in the Browns’ backfield. Ford was Cleveland’s lead back early in the year and averaged just under 10 fantasy points per game during the first five weeks of the season. Ford should have a favorable Week 16 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are better against the run than the pass, but that is not saying much. Ford should be a borderline Flex play this week.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Start Percentage: 45 Percent (31st among Running Backs)
My Current Week 16 Rank: RB31
Jaylen Warren was a nonfactor last week, but I will give him a pass. Pittsburgh ran just 43 offensive plays while possessing the ball for just over 20 minutes. Warren had finished as a top-30 fantasy running back in five straight games before last week. He also had at least 59 scrimmage yards in seven straight. I expect him to approach these levels again this week when the Steelers face the Baltimore Ravens. In recent weeks, Pittsburgh’s passing game has been severely compromised without wide receiver George Pickens. Russell Wilson has thrown for just 286 total yards in his last two games. Warren is among the team leaders with seven targets in that stretch, and that should continue against a Baltimore defense that allows the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs.
Other Running Backs to Consider
- Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas Raiders
- Current Start Percentage: 20 Percent (46th among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 16 Rank: RB32
- Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers
- Current Start Percentage: 31 Percent (35th among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 16 Rank: RB33
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Current Start Percentage: 45 Percent (40th among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 16 Rank: WR33
I am running it back with Panthers wideout Adam Thielen, even though he was a miss for me last week. Thielen was not bad by any means. He surpassed 50 yards for the fourth consecutive game and finished the week as the overall WR44. Thielen has 22 receptions and 28 targets across his last three games. That volume should help keep him afloat when Carolina faces the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16. The Cardinals rank in the league’s bottom half in receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers this year. And with Vegas installing Arizona as favorites, the Panthers will likely need to throw to keep up with the Cardinals. This should lead to another high-volume game for the veteran wide receiver.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Current Start Percentage: 46 Percent (42nd among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 16 Rank: WR39
Trying to predict which Green Bay Packers wide receiver is poised for a breakout each week has often proven to be a fool’s errand. However, their Week 16 matchup with the New Orleans Saints could favor Christian Watson more than the other Packer wideouts. The Saints play man coverage at a top-10 rate but have struggled all season in that defense. We saw further evidence of this last week when Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin scored twice en route to a top-five weekly finish. This year, Watson has been Green Bay’s most prolific wide receiver versus man coverage. He has been targeted on 32.9 percent of passes in man coverage and has delivered 3.51 yards per route run. That is the third-highest mark among 51 players targeted at least 20 times against man coverage. Watson has a higher ceiling than normal in Week 16.
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
Current Start Percentage: 27 Percent (50th among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 16 Rank: WR40
Josh Downs has struggled to connect with quarterback Anthony Richardson in the Colts’ last two games. Downs has caught just six of 15 targets for 59 scoreless yards in that span. But that could change in Week 16 when Indianapolis takes on the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee struggles in man coverage, particularly in the slot. Rookie slot cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. ranks 94th among 115 qualified corners in Pro Football Focus’ coverage metric. He is also in the bottom 10 percentile, with 1.45 yards per route allowed. Downs has depended on Richardson’s accuracy, which has sometimes failed him. However, this could be the week when the duo gets back on track.
Other Wide Receivers to Consider
- Quentin Johnson, Los Angeles Chargers
- Current Start Percentage: 40 Percent (46th among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 16 Rank: WR41
- Tank Dell, Houston Texans
- Current Start Percentage: 41 Percent (45th among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 16 Rank: WR43
- Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
- Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (41st among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 16 Rank: WR44
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Current Start Percentage: 47 Percent (12th among Tight Ends)
My Current Week 16 Rank: TE11
Dalton Kincaid may not have scored in last week’s shootout victory in Detroit. But there were still reasons for optimism regarding his fantasy outlook. Kincaid tied for the team lead in targets and led the Bills in air yards. He also had a potential touchdown called back due to a penalty. These were encouraging signs, especially considering Kincaid had been out for over a month. Kincaid only played on 49 percent of snaps last week, and I would expect that number to increase with a game now under his belt. Quarterback Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level, and fantasy managers should look to attach themselves to Buffalo’s offense. That makes Dalton Kincaid one of my favorite sneaky starts for Week 16.
Other Tight Ends to Consider
- Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Current Start Percentage: 14 Percent (29th among Tight Ends)
- My Current Week 16 Rank: TE12
Kicker
Brandon McManus, Green Bay Packers
Current Start Percentage: 41 Percent (14th among Kickers)
My Current Week 16 Rank: K5
Packers’ kicker Brandon McManus has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in four straight, keeping McManus busy. The Packers should have plenty of scoring opportunities on Monday night when they host the New Orleans Saints to close out Week 16. Green Bay is the biggest favorite on the board and has the highest implied total of the week. While the Packers should score multiple touchdowns on Monday, they also have a high likelihood of kicking numerous field goals. New Orleans is tied for eighth in the NFL in red-zone defense. They have given up a touchdown on only 51.2 percent of red-zone possessions. I expect McManus to score plenty of points in this matchup.
Other Kicker to Consider
Cade York, Cincinnati Bengals
Current Start Percentage: 10 Percent (25th among Kickers)
My Current Week 16 Rank: K7
Defense/Special Teams
Green Bay Packers
Current Start Percentage: 48 Percent (9th among D/STs)
My Current Week 16 Rank: D/ST2
While finding sneaky starts at running back has proven to be tricky, that is different with defense/special teams units. That is because most fantasy managers are wisely streaming D/ST. There are several viable streaming options in Week 16. Two of my top six defenses this week qualify as sneaky starts based on their current starting percentage. My preferred pick is the Green Bay Packers. Saints starting quarterback Derek Carr is unlikely to play on Monday night. Rookie fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler is expected to start, which should bode well for Green Bay’s defense. Rattler has taken a sack on over 10 percent of his dropbacks this year. He has also turned the ball over three times in four games. The Packers D/ST should have plenty of success in this matchup.
Other Defense/Special Teams to Consider
- Atlanta Falcons
- Current Start Percentage: 47 Percent (10th among D/STs)
- My Current Week 16 Rank: D/ST6
Make sure to check out all of our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!