As the weather starts to heat up so does the air in most stadiums, causing the ball to carry further than it did in the spring. This annual trend starts to separate the pitchers who have thrived in the cooler temperatures from those who can thrive in nearly any environment. As a result, league-wide ERA starts to rise and regression kicks in for several breakout pitchers. This makes researching matchups even more critical to prevent major blowup outings from unproven starters. That’s why we put in the effort to evaluate every pitching matchup for the coming week ahead in our weekly starting pitcher rankings.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings for Week 16 (7/8 – 7/14)
| Rnk | Pitcher | Team | Opp | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @MIL/ @CWS | 8 (@MIL=7 & @CWS=9) |
| 2 | George Kirby | SEA | @LAA | 8 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @LAA | 8 |
| 4 | Garrett Crochet | CWS | PIT | 8 |
| 5 | Corbin Burnes | BAL | CHC | 8 |
| 6 | Zac Gallen | ARI | ATL/ TOR | 7 (ATL=6 & TOR=8) |
| 7 | Chris Sale | ATL | @ARI/ @SDP | 7 (both matchups) |
| 8 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | NYY | 7 |
| 9 | Tanner Houck | BOS | OAK | 7 |
| 10 | Hunter Greene | CIN | MIA | 7 |
| 11 | Framber Valdez | HOU | MIA | 7 |
| 12 | Hunter Brown | HOU | TEX | 7 |
| 13 | Michael Wacha | KCR | @STL | 7 |
| 14 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | @DET | 7 |
| 15 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | WSH | 7 |
| 16 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | @CWS | 7 |
| 17 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | LAD/ OAK | 7 (LAD=6 & OAK=8) |
| 18 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | OAK | 7 |
| 19 | Logan Webb | SFG | TOR | 7 |
| 20 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | @SDP/ TOR | 7 (both matchups) |
| 21 | Bryan Woo | SEA | @LAA | 7 |
| 22 | Max Fried | ATL | @ARI | 6 |
| 23 | Reynaldo Lopez | ATL | @SDP | 6 |
| 24 | Dean Kremer | BAL | CHC/ NYY | 6 (both matchups) |
| 25 | Albert Suarez | BAL | CHC | 6 |
| 26 | Brayan Bello | BOS | OAK/ KCR | 6 (OAK=7 & KCR=5) |
| 27 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | OAK | 6 |
| 28 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | KCR | 6 |
| 29 | Erick Fedde | CWS | MIN | 6 |
| 30 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | COL/ MIA | 6 (both matchups) |
| 31 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | @DET | 6 |
| 32 | Reese Olson | DET | CLE | 6 |
| 33 | Tarik Skubal | DET | LAD | 6 |
| 34 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | MIA/ TEX | 6 (MIA=7 & TEX=5) |
| 35 | Cole Ragans | KCR | @BOS | 6 |
| 36 | Seth Lugo | KCR | @BOS | 6 |
| 37 | Joe Ryan | MIN | @SFG | 6 |
| 38 | Sean Manaea | NYM | COL | 6 |
| 39 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | @TBR | 6 |
| 40 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | @BAL | 6 |
| 41 | Aaron Nola | PHI | LAD | 6 |
| 42 | Michael Mercado | PHI | OAK | 6 |
| 43 | Mitch Keller | PIT | @MIL | 6 |
| 44 | Sonny Gray | STL | KCR | 6 |
| 45 | Michael King | SDP | SEA | 6 |
| 46 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @SDP | 6 |
| 47 | Max Scherzer | TEX | @LAA | 6 |
| 48 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | @SFG | 6 |
| 49 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | @SFG | 6 |
| 50 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | TOR | 5 |
| 51 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | @ARI | 5 |
| 52 | Josh Winckowski | BOS | KCR | 5 |
| 53 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | @BAL/ @STL | 5 (@BAL=4 & @STL=6) |
| 54 | Justin Steele | CHC | @BAL | 5 |
| 55 | Drew Thorpe | CWS | MIN | 5 |
| 56 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | COL/ MIA | 5 (both matchups) |
| 57 | Gavin Williams | CLE | @DET/ @TBR | 5 (both matchups) |
| 58 | Logan Allen | CLE | @DET | 5 |
| 59 | Cal Quantrill | COL | @CIN/ @NYM | 5 (both matchups) |
| 60 | Jack Flaherty | DET | CLE/ LAD | 5 (CLE=6 & LAD=4) |
| 61 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | TEX | 5 |
| 62 | Alec Marsh | KCR | @STL | 5 |
| 63 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | SEA | 5 |
| 64 | Jose Soriano | LAA | SEA | 5 |
| 65 | James Paxton | LAD | @DET | 5 |
| 66 | Colin Rea | MIL | PIT/ WSH | 5 (both matchups) |
| 67 | Tobias Myers | MIL | PIT | 5 |
| 68 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @CWS | 5 |
| 69 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | @SFG | 5 |
| 70 | Christian Scott | NYM | @PIT/ COL | 5 (both matchups) |
| 71 | Luis Severino | NYM | WSH | 5 |
| 72 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | @TBR/ @BAL | 5 (@TBR=6 & @BAL=4) |
| 73 | Marcus Stroman | NYY | @TBR | 5 |
| 74 | Luis Gil | NYY | @BAL | 5 |
| 75 | Martin Perez | PIT | NYM/ @CWS | 5 (NYM=4 & @CWS=6) |
| 76 | Bailey Falter | PIT | @MIL | 5 |
| 77 | Miles Mikolas | STL | @WSH/ CHC | 5 (@WSH=6 & CHC=4) |
| 78 | Dylan Cease | SDP | ATL | 5 |
| 79 | Jordan Hicks | SFG | TOR/ MIN | 5 (both matchups) |
| 80 | Blake Snell | SFG | TOR | 5 |
| 81 | Ryan Pepiot | TBR | NYY/ CLE | 5 (NYY=4 & CLE=6) |
| 82 | Taj Bradley | TBR | CLE | 5 |
| 83 | Jon Gray | TEX | @LAA/ @HOU | 5 (@LAA=6 & @HOU=4) |
| 84 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | @SFG/ @ARI | 5 (both matchups) |
| 85 | Jose Berrios | TOR | @ARI | 5 |
| 86 | MacKenzie Gore | WSH | @NYM | 5 |
| 87 | DJ Herz | WSH | @MIL | 5 |
| 88 | Charlie Morton | ATL | @ARI/ @SDP | 4 (both matchups) |
| 89 | Cade Povich | BAL | NYY | 4 |
| 90 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | @STL | 4 |
| 91 | Hayden Wesneski | CHC | @STL | 4 |
| 92 | Chris Flexen | CWS | MIN/ PIT | 4 (MIN=3 & PIT=5) |
| 93 | Jonathan Cannon | CWS | PIT | 4 |
| 94 | Frankie Montas | CIN | COL | 4 |
| 95 | Carson Spiers | CIN | COL | 4 |
| 96 | Ben Lively | CLE | @DET/ @TBR | 4 (both matchups) |
| 97 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | @TBR | 4 |
| 98 | Ryan Feltner | COL | @NYM | 4 |
| 99 | Shawn Dubin | HOU | MIA | 4 |
| 100 | Bobby Miller | LAD | @PHI | 4 |
| 101 | Gavin Stone | LAD | @PHI | 4 |
| 102 | Aaron Civale | MIL | PIT | 4 |
| 103 | David Festa | MIN | @CWS | 4 |
| 104 | Jose Quintana | NYM | WSH | 4 |
| 105 | David Peterson | NYM | WSH | 4 |
| 106 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | LAD | 4 |
| 107 | Luis L. Ortiz | PIT | @CWS | 4 |
| 108 | Lance Lynn | STL | CHC | 4 |
| 109 | Kyle Gibson | STL | CHC | 4 |
| 110 | Adam Mazur | SDP | SEA | 4 |
| 111 | Matt Waldron | SDP | ATL | 4 |
| 112 | Kyle Harrison | SFG | MIN | 4 |
| 113 | Hayden Birdsong | SFG | MIN | 4 |
| 114 | Zach Eflin | TBR | NYY | 4 |
| 115 | Shane Baz | TBR | NYY | 4 |
| 116 | Zack Littell | TBR | CLE | 4 |
| 117 | Michael Lorenzen | TEX | @LAA | 4 |
| 118 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | @HOU | 4 |
| 119 | Mitchell Parker | WSH | STL/ @MIL | 4 (both matchups) |
| 120 | Slade Cecconi | ARI | ATL | 3 |
| 121 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | ATL | 3 |
| 122 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | @BAL | 3 |
| 123 | Dakota Hudson | COL | @CIN/ @NYM | 3 (both matchups) |
| 124 | Austin Gomber | COL | @CIN | 3 |
| 125 | Kenta Maeda | DET | CLE/ LAD | 3 (CLE=4 & LAD=2) |
| 126 | Keider Montero | DET | CLE | 3 |
| 127 | Brady Singer | KCR | @BOS | 3 |
| 128 | Davis Daniel | LAA | TEX/ SEA | 3 (TEX=2 & SEA=4) |
| 129 | Griffin Canning | LAA | TEX | 3 |
| 130 | Landon Knack | LAD | @PHI | 3 |
| 131 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | @CIN | 3 |
| 132 | Dallas Keuchel | MIL | WSH | 3 |
| 133 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @SFG | 3 |
| 134 | Joey Estes | OAK | @BOS/ @PHI | 3 (@BOS=4 & @PHI=2) |
| 135 | JP Sears | OAK | @BOS | 3 |
| 136 | Mitch Spence | OAK | @PHI | 3 |
| 137 | Andre Pallante | STL | KCR/ CHC | 3 (both matchups) |
| 138 | Randy Vasquez | SDP | ATL | 3 |
| 139 | Andrew Heaney | TEX | @HOU | 3 |
| 140 | Yariel Rodriguez | TOR | @ARI | 3 |
| 141 | Jake Irvin | WSH | @NYM/ @MIL | 3 (both matchups) |
| 142 | Kyle Freeland | COL | @CIN | 2 |
| 143 | Roasny Contreras | LAA | TEX/ SEA | 2 (TEX=1 & SEA=3) |
| 144 | Trevor Rogers | MIA | @HOU/ @CIN | 2 (both matchups) |
| 145 | Kyle Tyler | MIA | @HOU | 2 |
| 146 | Bryan Hoeing | MIA | @HOU | 2 |
| 147 | Yonny Chirinos | MIA | @CIN | 2 |
| 148 | Hogan Harris | OAK | @BOS | 2 |
| 149 | Patrick Corbin | WSH | @NYM | 2 |
| 150 | Luis Medina | OAK | @PHI | 1 |
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