It’s all over. A season’s worth of diving into matchups, offensive schemes, defensive strategies, and coaching tendencies. It is now Week 16 and Fantasy’s Promised land is ripe for the taking. If you managed to survive the treacherous first two weeks of the playoffs these are the guys that will help you take that title home. No fluff, zero frills… It’s time to learn about some on the fence players that can win you the 2018 season’s Fantasy Football Title.
(This column will exclude Saturday games)
Week 16 Start ‘em Sit ‘em
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Start This Quarterback:
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Trending:
Goff’s last three
- 57/117, 55%
- 242 YPG
- 1 TD, 7INTs
It hasn’t been a pretty stat line for Goff as of late but there is cause for optimism in Week 16. Todd Gurley will likely be ruled out and the Cardinals defense is only an average unit per Football Outsiders DVOA Metric.
Arizona’s DVOA:
- -5.7% (20th)
While a positive gamescript overall will favor the run game in all likelihood, LAR will likely use plenty of play action to build an early lead. Goff will reward your trust with at least multiple scores and 250-275 yards.
Sit This Quarterback:
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Trending:
Kirk’s last three
- 66/98, 67%
- 208 YPG
- 4TDs,3INTs
In much the same way, Cousins has struggled recently. The difference is that the health of Dalvin Cook has started a trend of decreasing passing attempts for the $84M man over a three game stretch.
Attempts Over Last 3:
- 44, 33, 21
Detroit’s run defense is a middle of the pack group. Gamescript should favor the Vikings in this one and Zimmer will substitute runs for pass attempts. I’d expect an efficient day from Cousins overall but he likely won’t be asked to do enough to be fantasy relevant in Week 16.
Start This Running Back:
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Panthers Rush Defense:
- 122 YPG/Allowed over last 3
- 13th Rush Defense Overall
The Panthers have been up against it over the last three when attempting to stop the run. Though Coleman has been an iffy start all year he should be able to keep up the momentum from his last game (11-145-1) in Week 17.
Vegas Line:
- ATL 8th highest implied team total
Cam Newton sitting this one out will have a positive impact on Coleman’s stat line. Numerous Carolina stalled drives and 3 ‘n outs should lead to plenty of RZ trips for ATL. Chances are high Coleman capitalizes the good field position and grabs a TD in this spot.
Sit This Running Back:
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens
If Gordon plays you’d be hard pressed to leave him on the bench. Baltimore’s D casts some doubt on his Week 16 outlook however.
Baltimore Rush D:
- 6th NFL
- 65.6 RuYPG over last 5
Baltimore’s reliance on forcing the run game through Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Kenneth Dixon will also limit LACs time of possession. There is an inherent danger in trotting out a player just returning from injury. The risk is doubled when considering this brutal matchup.
Start This Wide Receiver:
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas Over/Under:
- 55pts (1st NFL, Week 17)
Trending:
Doug Baldwin’s last three
- 3TDs over 4 games
KC Pass D:
- League average by DVOA
- 8th Most FPPG to WRs
While Lockett or Baldwin could be the beneficiary of hat should be a shootout, the recent connection Wilson has displayed with Baldwin has been nothing short of spectacular. As Baldwin looks to be fully healthy for the first time this season, he should feast in his slot matchup vs Kendall Fuller.
Fuller’s Performance:
- 66th coverage rating
- 86th YPG/allowed
- 83rd FPPG (13.9)
Sit This WR:
Kenny Golladay Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Vikings Pass D:
- 2nd least FPPG allowed
- 148 Passing YPG over last 5
Xavier Rhodes:
- 7.8 FPPG (20th)
- 81.2 passer rating allowed when targeted
- +26.9 coverage rating (20th)
Golladay will find it difficult to consistently win against a quality matchup in Xavier Rhodes in Week 16. This, coupled with the fact that Stafford will be under siege all day by an elite pass rush has me worried about relying on Babytron this Sunday.
Vikings Sack Rate:
- 10.1 % (1st)
Start This TE:
Evan Engram, New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts
Tending:
Engram’s last three played (2 w/o Beckham)
- 72.7YPG
- 2-5-12 targets respectively
Snap Share last three
- 32%-52%-69% respectively
Indianapolis Colts vs TE
- 14.4 FPPG (24th)
Engram will benefit from being the giants 1B option to Barkley in this contest. The fact that the Colts are expected to be able to put up points means Eli will have to keep passing to stay competitive.
Vegas:
- Colts 2nd, implied points total
- 4th highest over under
Colts Rush D:
- 4thNFL by DVOA
Start These Defenses:
- Minnesota Vikings
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Houston Texans
Sit These Defenses:
- Carolina Panthers
- Seattle Seahawks
- New Orleans Saints
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