Welcome to the final installment of my weekly NFL player props column for the 2024 season. I clinched a winning season two weeks ago and need to hit two of three this week to end up exactly at 60 percent for the year. Hopefully, that means I have helped some of you along the way. Let’s finish strong with three of my favorite Week 17 NFL player props. As always, these numbers and prices are subject to change. Make sure you shop around to maximize your profits and minimize your losses.
NFL Week 17 Player Props
Chase Brown OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Fanatics)
Chase Brown has been one of the most productive running backs this season. He has been a bell-cow back since Zack Moss suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8. Brown has at least 20 touches in six of seven games since Moss’ injury. Much of that work has come as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Brown has averaged 4.9 receptions and 39.3 receiving yards in those seven contests. He has at least 30 receiving yards in five of seven. I expect more of the same on Saturday when the Bengals host the Denver Broncos. Brown’s receiving yards are one of my favorite Week 17 NFL player props.
Denver enters Saturday’s game with the sixth-best pass defense based on DVOA. However, they rank just 30th in the passing game versus opposing running backs. The Broncos lead the NFL in terms of pressure and sack rate. Teams have succeeded against Denver with quick throws to running backs to offset Denver’s pass rush. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is less than 100 percent due to wrist and knee injuries. Cincinnati would be wise to design some quick passes to Brown to get the ball out of Burrow’s hand quickly. This matchup sets up for Brown to provide plenty of receiving production. You can play Brown to record at least 25 receiving yards for -130 on ESPNBet. I will risk the hook and play Brown to end up with at least 26 yards at a much more palatable price.
Anthony Richardson UNDER 26.5 Pass Attempts (-114, FanDuel)
What’s better than sweating out a bet on an under? Well, lots of things, probably. But I am willing to sweat this one out for multiple reasons. Let’s start with the Indianapolis offense. The Colts do not want Anthony Richardson throwing the ball very often. In five games since returning to the starting lineup, Richardson has thrown the ball 81 times through the first three quarters. He has thrown the ball 50 times in the fourth quarters of those five games. Richardson’s passing attempts have been extremely dependent on the game script. That is important because Indianapolis is a 7.5-point favorite against the New York Giants, the worst team in the NFL. If this game goes according to plan, the Colts will let Jonathan Taylor do most of the heavy lifting.
Richardson is also dealing with back and foot injuries heading into this week’s matchup. The Colts are optimistic that he will play. However, Richardson could be limited in this game. Richardson’s injuries will probably limit his opportunities in the run game but may also affect his passing ability. Depending on Saturday’s results, the Colts may also be eliminated from the AFC playoff picture before they play on Sunday. If they are out of the playoff picture, they may not want a hobbled Richardson overdoing it in a meaningless game. The expected game script is the main reason I like this play, but it always helps to have additional outs. I am picking Anthony Richardson to record fewer than 26.5 pass attempts in this game.
Brock Purdy 250+ Passing Yards (-118, BetRivers)
Brock Purdy is averaging 249 passing yards per game this season. Based on that, it would make sense that the sportsbooks are posting his Week 17 passing line right around that mark. However, they fail to consider a couple of factors we can use to our advantage. First is Purdy’s Week 17 matchup with the Detroit Lions. Detroit is the most explosive offense in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. They are also dealing with a myriad of injuries on the defensive end. Both issues have led to the Lions allowing a lot of passing production in recent weeks. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 290 passing yards on 8.71 yards per attempt in Detroit’s last four games.
While Purdy’s yardage totals have been wildly inconsistent lately, lousy weather has been chiefly to blame. San Francisco played the Buffalo Bills in a snowstorm in Week 13. Purdy threw for just 94 yards in the loss, while MVP frontrunner Josh Allen finished with just 148. The 49ers were back home in Week 15, but heavy rain prohibited Purdy from producing in the passing game. He finished with only 142 passing yards, while his counterpart, Matthew Stafford, finished with 160. If you remove those two games from the equation, Purdy is averaging 270.9 passing yards and has surpassed this number in eight of 12 games. This number should be closer to 275 than 250, so I will gladly take the lower number at a neutral price point.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!