With another week down, let’s keep things going. Our Week 16 picks were split as the Chiefs and Broncos were upset at home while the Bills and Eagles were victorious. If was any consolation, they were our third and fourth options.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 17 of the NFL season. Before the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 17 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders
There is more pressure on San Francisco here than one might have otherwise expected. In game that was supposed to be evenly matched between two title and MVP contenders, the 49ers were blown out at home. Additionally, any hopes Brock Purdy had of winning the MVP vanished as he threw four interceptions.
It is a short week for the 49ers which would normally give us some cause for concern, but the Commanders are bad. And it is also impossible to overstate the motivation San Francisco will be playing with. Let’s be honest though, this is not evenly matched game. We know that San Francisco is not as bad as they looked last week. The Commanders though let Trevor Siemian and the Jets put up 30 points against them last week. That was the sixth loss in a row for Washington.
Washington is allowing a league-worst 30 points per game this season while ranking 30th with 395 total yards. With San Francisco gaining the second most yards (416) per game this season, it is shaping up to be a one-sided affair with our survivor picks.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
It really is hard to believe that the New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills earlier in the season. At the same time, the Bills were lucky to have defeated the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Ultimately, a win is a win even if it comes by just two points when you are favored by double digits.
The Patriots are coming off a surprising victory in Denver, but the Broncos are not the Bills. Factor in that the Bills are looking for revenge, and there is something to target for one of our survivor picks. Buffalo has the fourth-best defense in the league at preventing scoring while the Patriots have the worst scoring offense. New England isn’t especially strong defensively either while the Bills are scoring 27 points per game.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
After experiencing some struggles, the Eagles bounced back with a victory at home over the Giants last week. Things aren’t going to get much harder this week as the Cardinals travel east for what is a 10 AM start.
Kyler Murray has been dealing with an illness this week, but in general, he has yet to really get going since his return. The Eagles do struggle on defense, especially when defending the pass, but Arizona has yet to show it is something they can take advantage of. Arizona ranks 29th in the league with just 177 passing yards per game, and Murray hasn’t really improved anything.
Despite their recent struggles, the Eagles still have one of the better offenses in the league. What helps to push things forward this week, is the Eagles’ 6-1 home record while the Cardinals are 1-7 on the road.
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets
When the Jets win, it is often shocking to most observers. That was the case this last week after they blew a substantial lead to Washington. Things are not going to be nearly as easy or smooth in Cleveland for Week 17.
The Browns are allowing the fewest yards in the league per game, 281 this season, and their defense certainly has been a team strength. Last week notwithstanding, again they were playing the Commanders, but New York’s offense is simply not a strength. The proof is there as the Jets are the third worst scoring team in the league at 15.4 points per game.
However, we did bury the lead here. The fourth quarterback seemingly has been the charm for Cleveland. There is also the revenge angle as the Jets very well could have brought Joe Flacco into the fold, but instead, they chose to flounder at the position. And now Flacco has thrown for at least 311 yards and two touchdowns in each of the last three weeks. I would look for him to make it four this week.
Games to Fade
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Something is not right in Kansas City. They are generally strong at home and they are the better team here, but last week that didn’t help their cause. It was an uncharacteristic loss to the Raiders as the Chiefs are also oddly struggling at home (4-4).
The Chiefs seemingly have no receivers for Patrick Mahomes to throw to and the signal caller doesn’t look right. While Jake Browning isn’t Joe Burrow, he has done a solid job in relief and the Bengals are a dangerous team. Our biggest issue though, is not to overestimate the Chiefs.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cleveland
Line 2
San Francisco, Dallas, Miami, Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo, Philadelphia
Line 3
Buffalo
Line 4
San Francisco
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