It is that time of the week to take a look at my favorite NFL player props! We want to avoid making too many declarative statements after one week of games. But it was good to get off to a 2-1 start, and I was happy with all three reads. Let’s see if we can keep that momentum going this week. As I mentioned last week, try to access multiple sportsbooks if possible to get the best price. I present a real-life example with pricing on my first prop below so you can pick up what I am putting down. That information is in many ways more useful for long-term success than any of the analysis on these particular props. With all that said, here are my three favorite Week 2 NFL Player Props.
NFL Week 2 Player Props
Chris Godwin OVER 5.5 Receptions (+110 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
My first Week 1 NFL player prop is a bet on Chris Godwin to record at least six receptions on Sunday. Godwin is coming off a game in which he caught all eight of his targets. Godwin’s efficiency may not be as high this time around, but an expected increase in volume should more than make up for that when Godwin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Detroit to take on the Lions.
Detroit remains one of the bigger pass-funnel defenses throughout the NFL. We saw that play out again in their Week 1 overtime victory against the Rams. Los Angeles had 78 offensive snaps in that game and ran the ball on only 23 of them. Matthew Stafford attempted 49 passes last week. He targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times. If Baker Mayfield targets Godwin half as often, he is a virtual lock for six grabs. Since 2019, Godwin has had six or more catches in 22 of 23 regular season games in which he has been targeted 10 or more times. The Lions are also the second-biggest favorite on the board this week. This should result in more passing attempts from Mayfield and more targets for Godwin. I am taking the Over on Chris Godwin’s receptions prop in Week 2.
If you do not have access to Fanatics, FanDuel Sportsbook currently has this listed at +106. I think that is still a very fair price all things considered. This player prop is as high as -115 at Caesars Sportsbook. I would probably still play it at that number. But at the risk of sounding like a broken record, getting the best price is of utmost importance. If you risk $10 on Fanatics and this prop hits, you win $11. If you risk $10 on Caesars and it hits, you win $8.70. Multiply this by X amount of dollars or X number of bets, and you can see how quickly these seemingly small discrepancies add up over time.
Malik Willis UNDER 168.5 Passing Yards (-114 at BetRivers)
Malik Willis is expected to be under center for the Green Bay Packers when they host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2. The team acquired Willis last month via trade from the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee deemed Willis expendable after he could not beat out Mason Rudolph to be the team’s backup quarterback. The same Mason Rudolph who has a career 6.48 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). You know, the one Pittsburgh let go after watching him play for four years so they could acquire two other quarterbacks who may or may not be good at football at this stage in their respective careers. But enough about that. Let’s focus on Willis.
Willis has started three games in his NFL career. His passing yardage totals in those games were 55, 80, and 99 yards on a combined 49 passing attempts. And yes, he played every snap of all three of those games. One of them even went to overtime. Tennessee did not trust him to throw the football, and for good reason. Willis’ career AY/A is 3.21. For reference, Zach Wilson’s is 5.67. And now we are to believe that the Packers, who acquired Willis less than three weeks ago, are going to trust him to air it out? Sure, 168.5 is a pretty low bar to clear. But 12 NFL quarterbacks failed to surpass that number just last week. And I am talking about real NFL quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers. I just do not see Malik Willis beating this number.
Zack Moss OVER 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-105 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
The Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in one of the marquee matchups in Week 2. Despite playing in different divisions, these teams are quite familiar with one another. This will be their sixth meeting (including playoffs) since January 2022. When I initially dug into this game, I noticed that Patrick Mahomes has not had huge numbers against the Bengals, particularly in the regular season. But that seems to be more of a byproduct of Cincinnati’s approach on offense than on defense. In the three regular-season meetings, Kansas City only had an average of 56.7 offensive snaps. Their high water mark in those games was 61. Cincinnati, by contrast, has run an average of 72 offensive plays, with a low total of 70. This is due in large part to the Bengals being committed to the running game.
Cincinnati’s lead back (Joe Mixon or Semaje Perine) exceeded this number in all three regular-season meetings with Kansas City, and four of five overall. In three of those games, the team’s lead back had exactly 21 carries. All of this bodes well for Zack Moss from a usage standpoint. Moss was the team’s clear RB1 in their upset defeat last week. Moss out-snapped Chase Brown 33-17 and had nine carries to Brown’s three. Cincinnati only had 51 offensive snaps in Week 1, which caused Moss to go under this number. But I expect Cincinnati to stick to their guns (and the run) and stay on the field a bit longer on Sunday. This should lead to Zack Moss carrying the ball at least 10 times.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!