Well, I went 0-3 in this column in Week 1 and 3-0 in Week 2. We have already run the gamut of emotions and it is still September. Hopefully, last week was the beginning of a more consistent run of success ala my MLB player props column. Unfortunately, they tell me I cannot use my winning Elijah Mitchell pick as one of this week’s NFL player props. Some mumbo jumbo about this column coming out on Friday when the game was played on Thursday or whatever. That’s okay though because I have three more picks just for you, my faithful readers. Here are my top three NFL player props for Week 3.
Week 3 NFL Player Props
Tyreek Hill OVER 6.5 Receptions (-105, BetMGM)
Let’s kick off our Week 3 NFL player props with the Cheetah himself, Tyreek Hill. Hill has recorded at least seven catches in 11 of 19 games as a member of the Miami Dolphins. However, I do not believe that tells the full story. Miami used multiple quarterbacks a season ago due to the concussion issues that Tua Tagovailoa dealt with. If we focus solely on games in which Tagovailoa threw at least 30 passes, Hill had seven or more grabs in eight of 11. That is good for 72.7 percent and is much higher than the 51.2 percent that the -105 odds imply. And there are other reasons for optimism as well when it comes to Hill’s Week 3 matchup.
Hill and the Dolphins will host the Denver Broncos. Denver ranks 28th in defensive DVOA versus the pass through two weeks. They have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.3 percent of their passes. And their year-to-date opponents have been Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell. It’s not as if they have faced the most accurate quarterbacks out there. In their two non-Broncos games this year, Garoppolo and Howell have completed 63.6 percent of their passes. Denver will likely deploy top corner Patrick Surtain to shadow Hill in man coverage. However, Hill has earned a top-five receiving grade against man coverage through two games per Pro Football Focus. Tagovailoa will not hesitate to Hill with targets in this game. And if Hill ever matches up across from Damarri Mathis, look out. The second-year pro is PFF’s lowest-rated corner and has allowed a completion rate of 88 percent in his coverage.
I should note that all of the excellent numbers above concerning Hill were accomplished with Jaylen Waddle putting up huge numbers in his own right. Waddle is likely out for Week 3, as he is still in the league’s concussion protocol. That means Hill should be an even bigger focal point of the passing game than he normally is. That is saying quite a bit considering his already high usage rate. The only potential issue I see with this prop is that this game may feature some rainfall. However, the winds will likely be light, so hopefully, the weather will not be much of a factor. I think the Dolphins will look to get the ball in Hill’s hands as often as possible in this matchup. Give me the over on Hill’s Week 3 reception prop.
Nico Collins OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114, BetRivers)
I think that the sportsbooks are sleeping on Nico Collins a little, especially considering his early production. Collins is sixth in the NFL in receiving yards and fifth in air yards as we enter Week 3. Collins has earned PFF’s third-highest overall grade among wideouts to this point. And yet, his receiving yardage prop sits at 52.5. For reference, none of the other top-five wide receivers have a yardage prop below 65 yards. This feels like a buying opportunity for Collins and his Week 3 yardage prop.
Collins and the Houston Texans will square off against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Jacksonville ranks fifth in the league in defensive DVOA against the run, but just 15th versus the pass. Houston is not particularly adept offensively in the passing game (24th in DVOA). However, their run game sits at 31st in DVOA. Their offensive line has given Houston’s running backs a league-worst 0.99 yards per carry before contact. There is not a lot to suggest that the Texans will enjoy success on the ground in this contest. They will have to trust rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud to continue to throw the ball at a high clip. Stroud has attempted 91 passes through two weeks. That is the third-highest number in the NFL.
The game script also figures to work in Collins’ favor. The Jaguars are 10-point favorites in this game. If the Texans fall behind, they will be quick to abandon the run. More passes means more opportunities for their top wide receiver to make plays. Collins is coming off a career-best 146 receiving yards last week. And his 80 receiving yards in Week 1 were the second-highest (now third-highest) weekly mark in his three-year NFL career. He has established a rapport with his rookie quarterback. Jacksonville’s secondary has been solid, but three wideouts have already eclipsed 60 yards in a game against them. I expect Nico Collins to become the fourth member of that club on Sunday. As is the case with Hill, I do not expect the potential weather threat to be a huge factor. Therefore, I am playing the Over on Collins’ receiving yardage prop.
Zach Ertz OVER 3.5 Receptions (-145, BetMGM)
This prop may be last, but it is certainly not least in my eyes. First, let’s discuss the elephant in the room. This price has a steep price attached, but there is good reason for it. I think playing this prop at 3.5 is a no-brainer, and I do not mind playing it if the number moves to 4.5. I am strongly considering laddering receptions for Zach Ertz in this matchup if and when that becomes available.
Quick tutorial for those not familiar with laddering bets: As a single play, I would be risking 1.45 units (bet size) to win 1 unit if Ertz catches more than 3.5 passes. Some sportsbooks will offer odds for Ertz to catch over 4.5 or even 5.5 passes at very good odds. You can “ladder” these without increasing your risk in a manner such as this:
Risk 1 unit on Ertz to catch OVER 3.5 passes
Risk 0.3 units on Ertz to catch OVER 4.5 passes
Risk 0.15 units on Ertz to catch OVER 5.5 passes
If Ertz fails to catch at least four passes, you lose the same 1.45 units you would have anyway. If he catches exactly four, you still profit, albeit for a bit less. But if he catches five or more, your profit could increase dramatically. That 1.45 risk could net as much as 2-3 units, as opposed to the 1 unit you would make off the single bet. OK, now that we got that out of the way, here is why I love this prop.
Ertz is one of five tight ends who have caught at least five passes in two consecutive games this season. Yet even that stat undersells how much he is featured in Arizona’s offense. Ertz has a 30.5 percent target share through two weeks. No other tight end has a target share higher than 20.6 percent. All of Ertz’s damage has come on just 61 total pass attempts from Joshua Dobbs. Now the Cardinals face the Dallas Cowboys in a game in which they are a 12.5-point underdog. I suspect that game script will force Arizona to throw the ball much more than they have in their first two games. That alone would tend to favor Ertz catching enough passes for this prop to hit. And we have not even discussed Micah Parsons or the Cowboys’ defensive front yet.
Dallas generates pressure on 37 percent of dropbacks. Parsons, Osa Odighizuwa, and Dorance Armstrong have all registered two or more sacks already this season. DeMarcus Lawrence and Chauncey Golston “only” have a sack apiece, but this group is going to get after Dobbs on Sunday. The Cardinals have done a decent job of keeping Dobbs upright so far. Still, they would be wise to draw up quicker throws to avoid any additional pressure on their quarterback. Quicker throws would also likely benefit Ertz, whose 7.21 aDOT is significantly lower than that of Marquise Brown (9.92) or Michael Wilson (15.29). We have already seen the New York Giants and New York Jets feature the tight end against Dallas. The Cowboys have only allowed 29 completions through two games this season. However, 11 of those 29 passes were caught by tight ends.
All signs are not only pointing towards another high usage day for Ertz, but those signs have alarm bells and bright neon lights on them. For this column, I am tracking this as a single play at -145. But, likely, I will also be laddering Ertz’s receptions in one form or another once sportsbooks release alternate reception lines for Ertz. There is part of me that wants to forego the 3.5 number altogether. However, our goal here is to hit singles, not swing for the fences. Sometimes we have to take what the books give us. So let’s take Ertz to have at least four catches for now and hopefully add one more to the win column.
Week 3 Positional Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End