Michael Florio’s Week 3 Positional Rankings!

Josh Gordon is a Patriot, Antonio Brown went MIA, the Cardinals can in fact ruin David Johnson, and two QBs have broken the record for most fantasy points scored through two weeks of the season. The start to the 2018 football season has been a wild one. The one consistent is Todd Gurley continues to find the end zone! Welcome to my Week 3 rankings and writeup, which will explain some of the rational behind my thinking.

• Josh Gordon is officially a Patriot. After years of Twitter jokes, the inevitable has happened. And shame on Tom Brady for not giving up his number to the new stud WR. But in all seriousness, this is perhaps the biggest move of the NFL season. I have mixed reactions on this one. In the long term I think Gordon has tremendous upside as he is easily the most talented WR to play with Brady since Randy Moss. Still, we always hear how difficult it is to learn the playbook and mesh in the Patriots offense (pour one out for the upside of Chad Johnson, Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker). I do think Flash Gordon holds tremendous upside later in the season and next season (if he is still there and playing). However, for this week he is a boom or bust WR4/flex option. I would expect the Pats to want to showcase him on national TV, taking a few deep shots and perhaps even a jump ball in the end zone. However, there is a good chance, due to not knowing the playbook and dealing with a hamstring injury, that he plays a limited amount of snaps.

•  I do worry what this means for Chris Hogan. If you don’t remember, I was lower on Hogan than most coming into the season. My reason was that once Edelman returned, I worried that Hogan would be third in the targets pecking order. Add in that James White has led the Pats in targets each of the first two weeks and the fact that Josh Gordon is there now, I have larger concerns now than before the season. I still think Hogan has upside and is worth owning, but he gets bumped down to a WR3, who will be touchdown reliant.
• With Gordon now out of Cleveland, I am excited for Antonio Callaway. For those who are unfamiliar with Callaway, he is the player who looks perplex after Jarvis Landry’s Hard Knocks speech. He also was an early round talent who fell in the draft due to off the field issues and caught the should of been game winning deep ball against the Saints in Week 2 (sorry Zane Gonzalez). He has a lot of upside and should have been the top waiver wire target this season.
• Sorry for so much Patriots talk, but this is important. In Week 2 we got to see the first glimpse of the Patriots backfield with all three being active. Here is how the snaps broke down: White 54%, Burkhead 23%, Michel 21%. White led the team in targets, Burkhead had only six carries and no targets. The one that stood out was Sony Michel, who played only 13 snaps, yet led the backfield with 10 carries and had two targets. Yes, he was the focal point of the offense when he was out on the field. I am very excited for him, especially this week against a Lions defense that has allowed 97 more rushing yards to RBs this season than any other team. I expect a coming out game this week, while I am worried about Burkhead going forward, as Michel and White may phase him out of fantasy relevance. 
• David Johnson is still a superb talent, but we feared the changes around him and it shows why, as the Cardinals terrible O-line is making life tough on him. Not only that, but Sam Bradford’s refusal to throw the ball down the field certainly does not help. In fact, he’s thrown the ball behind the line of scrimmage four times as often as he has a ball with 10+ air yards. The Cardinals are also using him a lot less creatively, lining him in the slot and out wide significantly less than they did in 2016. Miss you, Bruce Arians. Good luck to him and that offense against Khalil Mack and that vaunted Bears defense.
• It’s a weird world where LeSean McCoy can barely come in as an RB3. In an 18-team league I need to play McCoy and wish I didn’t have too. McCoy has not been able to get anything going, largely for the same reason as Johnson. He is running behind a terrible offensive line, in a terrible and uncreative offense. Like Johnson his talent will be able to overcome that in some games, just not in a real tough matchup this week.
• Will Fuller as a top-24 WR? Blasphemy. Well that is until you realize he is the best WR in the league when him and Deshaun Watson play together. Okay, he really isn’t the best, but his production is. He averages just under 18 standard fantasy points per game when the two are both active. To put that into perspective, no WR averaged 15 standard PPG in 2017. Maybe the TD rate they have put up can’t last, but I’m not going to continuously get burned by ranking this guy too low. I am trusting Will Fuller this week.
• Kareem Hunt has two targets on the season. That is largely a side affect of Pat Mahomes being on pace for 80 passing touchdowns. That is clearly unsustainable and I do expect the Chiefs to run the ball more in order to keep their terrible defense off the field. However, Mahomes is not a check-down QB like Alex Smith and I do worry that it will greatly eat into his production in the passing game.
• As I just mentioned the Chiefs are one of the worst defenses in football. Factor in their high-powered offense and it has led to two shootouts this season. The 49ers will need to put up points, meaning they should be in your fantasy lineup. KC allows the most fantasy points-per-game (FPPG) to QBs and TEs, meaning that Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle should be in your lineup. I also expect a few deep shots to Marquise Goodwin.
•  This is kind of a prove it game for Kenyan Drake. The Raiders have allowed 5.8 yards-per-carry to RBs this season. Drake is highly ranked in a good matchup, but I want a big week out of him for me to continue ranking him this highly.
• I am worried for Russell Wilson. He is playing with depleted weapons and a terrible offensive line, which is not a good combo for a QB. Luckily he won’t have to play the Bears every week and has the talent to still be a QB1, especially given his rushing ability. However, I worry he will fail to return the investment you made on draft day.
• It is not a hot take to tell you to shop Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he has scored the most fantasy points a QB has ever scored in the first two weeks of the season. This play is clearly unsustainable. I still think we see Jameis Winston this season and would try to take advantage of the love everyone had for Fitzy, especially after that post-game outfit.

Positional Rankings for Week 3

You can hear myself discuss Week 2 lessons, the latest NFL news and break down Week 3 with Matt Modica on Wide Right Fantasy Football! Also, follow me on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.

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