Week 3 will be the last week until Thanksgiving where all 32 NFL teams are in action. There are plenty of matchups to analyze and situations to monitor, so let’s get right to it. Here are my Week 3 Sleepers and Busts. For the most part, these are players I would prefer to start when the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) suggests benching them or vice versa. There are also a couple of players included who may be more worthy of DFS consideration than redraft leagues. Whatever your fancy, these should come in handy before you hit that “Submit” button and lock your lineups.
Week 3 Sleepers and Busts
For help setting your lineups, check out our Week 3 Waiver Wire Recommendations and our Week 3 FAAB Guide.
Sleeper Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo (My rank: QB13; Expert Consensus Rank: QB16)
The quarterback I was highest on this week relative to ECR was Gardner Minshew. I had him as my QB19 whereas he finished as the QB25 according to ECR. I feel confident in that call after he performed admirably in Thursday’s victory. Since this will be published Friday, however, that would not do anyone reading this any good. Therefore, Jimmy Garoppolo winds up here instead.
Garoppolo finished as the QB6 in Week 2 in a dominating win in Cincinnati. The Bengals have a porous defense, but it’s not as if Pittsburgh’s defense has been any better. The Steelers have allowed 641 yards (sixth-most) and six touchdowns (tied for second-most) to opposing quarterbacks. And it is not as if they have faced a ton of pass attempts. They are in the bottom half of the league in terms of pass attempts faced but have allowed a massive 9.03 yards per pass attempt. That number places Pittsburgh ahead of only Miami, Cincinnati, and the New York Giants. Yes, the Steelers added Minkah Fitzpatrick this week. But I do not think that makes them a defense we need to fear. I have Garoppolo as my QB13 for Week 3, making him an option as a starting quarterback spot.
Bust Quarterback
Kyler Murray (My rank: QB15; ECR: QB10)
Kyler Murray was a sleeper for me last week and performed admirably. But he will be in for a tough test this week when he faces the Carolina Panthers. Carolina has given up just 394 total passing yards through two weeks. Included in that is a Week 1 game against the Rams, so it is not like they have faced pushovers. It is also unlikely that Panthers quarterback Cam Newton suits up for this one. If he is out, this may create a scenario where Carolina tries to take the air out of the ball. This may result in Arizona running fewer plays than they are used to. The Cardinals passing attack has also benefited from them having never led so far this year. Arizona may not be forced to play catchup in this game, which could also reduce the number of pass attempts. Murray is my QB15 and I would be fine with leaving him on the bench in Week 3.
Sleeper Running Backs
Carlos Hyde (My rank: RB26 in Standard; ECR: RB34)
Strange, but true – Carlos Hyde has looked very effective running the football behind the Texans’ makeshift offensive line. Hyde is fifth in the NFL in rushing through two weeks. His 5.8 yards per rush is the second-best among the 15 running backs who have carried the ball 30 times or more. Fantasy owners should expect Hyde to continue his recent stretch in Week 3. The Los Angeles Chargers have permitted the fifth-most rushing yards this year and have ceded 5.06 yards per carry. Based on these numbers, Hyde is a recommended start in this matchup, at least in standard leagues. He may, however, fall a bit short of that threshold in PPR leagues. Hyde is not a factor in the passing game, with just one target through two games.
Raheem Mostert (My rank: RB21 in Standard; ECR: RB29)
Jeff Wilson (My rank: RB41 in Standard: ECR: RB59)
Last week, we saw that the 49ers can support multiple running backs. Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and Matt Breida were all top-13 plays in standard leagues. Sure, that is not likely to be duplicated anytime soon. However, I think we are underestimating the roles that Mostert and Wilson have in this offense. Mostert is filling in admirably when called upon, just as he did a season ago. Mostert averaged an eye-popping 7.7 yards per rush last year. That number is not sustainable, of course. But he is still averaging a rock-solid 5.6 yards per tote this year. He has proven he can get the job done when given the chance. I have Mostert ranked just ahead of Breida this week. Based on ECR, that does not appear to be a popular opinion.
As for Wilson, his touches are less guaranteed than Mostert’s or Breida’s. But Wilson scored two touchdowns last week, and head coach Kyle Shanahan insinuated that was no accident. He alluded to the fact that they purposely utilized Wilson in scoring position. I would not perform any lineup gymnastics to ensure Wilson was in Week 3 lineups. However, I do believe Wilson also makes for a very sneaky DFS punt play this week against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense which has already allowed 360 yards from scrimmage to opposing running backs.
Rex Burkhead (My rank: RB34 in PPR; ECR: RB40)
Sony Michel figures to lead New England’s backfield in a game the Patriots are favored in by more than three touchdowns. But I would not be surprised if Rex Burkhead outpaces James White in this game for the number-two spot. Burkhead has more touches than White in each game so far and is 22nd among running backs in total yards from scrimmage. I will never pretend to know how the New England Patriots will dole out backfield touches in a given week. However, given the expected game flow, there should be enough rushing opportunities and scoring chances to go around. If you are in a scenario where you have an injured player like Damien Williams or an RB2 with a bad matchup, Rex Burkhead may come in handy this week.
Bust Running Backs
Chris Carson (My rank: RB22 in Standard; ECR: RB8)
If there is one thing that will give coaches a quick hook with running backs, it is a case of fumble-itis. Chris Carson has lost fumbles in consecutive games to start the year. He did come in to close out last week’s win, but his butterfingers may have left the door open a bit for Rashaad Penny. Penny got 11 touches last week and he looked good in the process, scoring on a 37-yard run. I would not be surprised to see Penny earn a bigger piece of the pie in Week 3. I still have Carson as a top-24 back, so I would not go out of my way to sit him. But I am not in the camp who believes he is a slam-dunk start, either. If you are expecting another 20 touches and a top-10 performance out of Carson, you may be in for a rude awakening.
Josh Jacobs (My rank: RB29 in Standard; ECR: RB23)
If you own Josh Jacobs, I probably cannot talk you out of starting him. He has been great so far. I just want to point out that there are some red flags here. Jacobs may not see a full complement of touches in a game Oakland is expected to lose. Jacobs saw just 12 touches in Oakland’s Week 2 loss, half of what he had in Week 1’s win. If Oakland falls behind, Jalen Richard will see a fair amount of work in Oakland’s backfield. Also, Jacobs is dealing with a variety of maladies heading into this matchup. He is battling through an injury that has affected his hip and groin. Jacobs is also sick and has reportedly lost 10 pounds due to illness. All of this adds up to what I believe to be a reduced workload. I would not be surprised if Jacobs grossly underperforms versus expectations this week.
Sleeper Wide Receivers
Marvin Jones (My rank: WR28 in Standard; ECR: WR38)
Marvin Jones is someone I really like this week. He and the Detroit Lions travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. The way to attack the Eagles defense is through the air. Philadelphia has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing backs, but the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts. Philadelphia’s trio of cornerbacks is an uninspiring bunch who have already allowed three different wide receivers to exceed 23 PPR points in a game. Jones is known as a deep threat but has averaged just 11 yards per catch in the early going. I think this is a game where he can get behind the defense and make a big play down the field. The matchup and likely game script make this a spot where Jones can make some noise. He is a WR3 for me who carries some major upside.
Jarvis Landry (My rank: WR32 in PPR; ECR: WR37)
On paper, the individual matchup for Jarvis Landry does not figure to get him off his early schneid. He will square off against Nickell Robey-Coleman on most snaps. Robey-Coleman is one of the better slot corners in the league. But Cleveland will need to put up points to match up with a potent Los Angeles Rams offense. While Nick Chubb will certainly be featured, I expect the Browns to throw a bit more in this game as well. Odell Beckham will have his hands full with Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. OBJ can get his against anyone, but Landry may be targeted a bit more in this game. That is especially true with tight end David Njoku out with a broken wrist. I believe Baker Mayfield will lean a little more on Landry given these circumstances. Landry is a recommended WR3 in PPR leagues this week.
Bust Wide Receivers
Larry Fitzgerald (My rank: WR31 in Standard; ECR: WR24)
The call here on Larry Fitzgerald is nothing against the legend himself. It is more a continuation of what I said regarding Kyler Murray. Arizona’s Air Raid offense has been greatly aided in the early going by facing negative game flow. I do not expect Kliff Kingsbury to abruptly downshift if the Cardinals get a lead. Arizona will still run plays at a fast pace regardless of what the scoreboard says. But I also do not feel that Fitzgerald’s current pace of 192 targets is sustainable. I still have Fitzgerald as a WR3 in standard leagues, so I think he is startable in most instances. I just would not expect a third consecutive 100-plus yard performance to begin Fitzgerald’s 16th NFL season.
D.J. Moore (My rank: WR33 in Standard; ECR: WR26)
For me, the decision on whether to start D.J. Moore is dependent on format. I think Moore is a much better Week 3 option in PPR leagues. Moore has been a reliable target, hauling in 16 passes through two weeks. However, he is averaging just 10.3 yards per catch. I expect Carolina to be a bit more conservative in their play-calling with Kyle Allen expected under center for Carolina this week. This may play into Moore’s hands as an underneath target but would limit playmaking ability down the field. Cam Newton hasn’t exactly looked good, so the quarterback switch is less of a downgrade than most would expect. I just do not think Moore will get into the end zone or surpass 100 yards in this contest, making him as a low-end WR3/Flex play in standard leagues this week.
Sleeper Tight Ends
Jason Witten (My rank: TE12 in Standard; ECR: TE17)
Stop me if you have heard this before, but the Miami Dolphins have a bad defense. All Dallas skill position players warrant consideration this week. That includes Jason Witten. Witten has been a top-15 fantasy tight end in each of the year’s first two weeks. The manner in which he has done so is not likely to be sustainable throughout the year. He has a total of 40 receiving yards, after all. His production has been buoyed by touchdown catches in each game. However, there is no reason to believe he cannot score again this week. Witten’s low yardage totals give him a low floor. But the upside is there in a game in which Dallas should be able to score at will. Witten is a borderline TE1 in Week 3 in my estimation.
Bust Tight End
Darren Waller (My rank: TE13 in Standard; ECR: TE6)
Darren Waller has been one of the pleasant fantasy surprises of the young season. But he will face his most difficult test of the young campaign when the Raiders face the Vikings. Waller appears to be a featured part of the passing game, which could raise his floor. However, this is a matchup I would prefer to avoid if possible. Minnesota allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position a year ago and have been similarly stingy so far in 2019. Opposing tight ends have totaled just 77 receiving yards without a score in two games. I do believe that Waller’s early breakout is legitimate, and he can be a viable starting tight end moving forward. I just do not think this is the week you want to chase his previous production.
Who are your Week 3 sleepers and busts? Let us know in the comments below.
Mick Ciallela has been writing for FantraxHQ since July 2017. He has also written for Bleacher Report. He is a lifelong sports fan and has been an avid fantasy sports player for many years. Mick was the Overall Champion of both the 2016 Football Challenge – Roto and 2017 Play 3 Football contests hosted by CDM Sports. Mick was born and raised in Mount Vernon, New York and currently resides in New London, Connecticut.
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