It’s time for dynasty players to begin deciding the direction of their teams after three weeks. Teams that have started 3-0 have a nearly 85 percent chance of making the playoffs, whereas an 0-3 team has less than a 16 percent chance of doing so. Here are a couple of dynasty buys and sells to target in your leagues, but keep in mind the other team’s current situation when initiating trade talks.
All the first-round rookie picks in the world won’t help you acquire Ezekiel Elliott if the other dynasty GM is contending for a title, and don’t attempt to sell veteran contributors like Adrian Peterson to teams clearly in a rebuild and not in position to vie for a championship this year.
Say what?! Your dynasty football league isn’t hosted on Fantrax? Unthinkable! Check out all the features Fantrax has to offer, and we think you’ll be singing a different tune for next season.
Week 4 Dynasty Buys
Preston Williams
It’s been a slow start to the year for Preston Williams as he gets back up to speed from his torn ACL last November. The good news is that Williams has been playing a lot on offense, logging 90 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 1 and 81 percent in Week 2. And while his Week 3 snap percentage dipped to just 57 percent, it was an unusual game script in which the Dolphins jumped out to an early lead against a stumbling Jacksonville team and maintained it throughout.
Low target share despite a high rate of offensive snaps played is somewhat concerning, but Williams is slowly rebuilding his rapport with Ryan Fitzpatrick, best displayed on his end zone route against the Jaguars in Week 3, which resulted in a touchdown. And despite seeing just 14 targets through three games in 2020, the sophomore out-targeted teammate DeVante Parker last year when both were healthy with Williams having gotten 60 targets through eight games in 2019 compared to 52 for Parker. Both should see high target volume this season with Williams’s targets expected to trend up as he gets more games under his belt.
At the price of a mid-second-round rookie pick, Williams should be one of your value dynasty buys. Even splitting targets with Parker and Mike Gesicki, Williams has fantasy WR3 potential or more with Miami expected to trail in most of their games this year. I acquired Williams in a league prior to last week, expecting a bigger game against the Jaguars’ hapless secondary, but the window to buy is still open after a quiet game on Thursday night. However, the Dolphins’ coming game against the Seahawks projects to be a shootout and could possibly be Williams’s coming out party, so send those trade offers for Williams before this weekend.
Jimmy Garoppolo
We are close to seeing Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk on the field at the same time, whether in Week 4 against the Eagles or in Week 5 against the Dolphins. Both are layup matchups, and though the 49ers have endured a slew of injuries on both offense and defense early in the season, they’ve stayed resilient on their way to a 2-1 record. Kittle figures to remain the primary target in the receiving game with Samuel and Aiyuk both contributing behind him, and the impact of having all three healthy converges at Garoppolo.
And though the defense has managed to dominate against weak opponents like the Jets and Giants over the last couple of weeks, they will be tested and likely give up more points to opponents midseason once their early slate of easier matchups concludes after Week 5. San Francisco’s next five games starting in Week 6 could turn into high-scoring affairs, as they face off against the Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, Packers, and Saints. Garoppolo quietly finished as the no. 13 fantasy quarterback last season despite managing a run-heavy offense, but he showed well in higher-scoring games against the Cardinals and Saints in the second half of the year.
With Garoppolo having missed Week 3 due to a high ankle sprain, he’s not at the forefront of the minds of many fantasy players. But he should be, as he threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions to start the year, and he was on his way to a big fantasy performance prior to leaving the Week 2 matchup against the Jets due to injury. The going rate for Garoppolo is likely a late second-round rookie pick or less in one quarterback dynasty leagues, and he may be available for a mid or even late first-round rookie pick in superflex formats. He’s a reliable fantasy QB1 with upside if San Francisco’s injury-riddled defensive unit allows more games to turn into shootouts in 2020.
Week 3 Dynasty Buys Revisited:
Leonard Fournette and Drew Sample were the Week 3 dynasty buys recommended. Rather than giving Fournette an opportunity to showcase his three-down ability after an impressive Week 2 performance, the Tampa Bay backfield was once again a messy split. Fournette was listed as a risky buy, but I still believe he’ll see more touches going forward on a consistent basis, though there’s a risk this remains a maddening committee backfield all year. Sample was a clear miss. Despite the high target share to his tight ends through two games, Joe Burrow instead relied on Tee Higgins repeatedly in Week 3. Sample is a fine hold who could still see volume this year, but he’s no longer a strong candidate on the list of dynasty buys.
Week 4 Dynasty Sells
Brandon Aiyuk
Wait a minute…I just listed Jimmy Garoppolo as a dynasty buy above, so why would Brandon Aiyuk be a sell? Well, a healthy George Kittle should continue to dominate the target share in San Francisco, with Kittle having logged a 23 percent target share in 2019. As a rookie, Deebo Samuel came on strong in the second half of last season and ended the year with a 17 percent target share, leaving a combined 21 percent for Emmanuel Sanders and Kendrick Bourne. Although Sanders departed for New Orleans, Bourne remains, and a healthy Trent Taylor has returned, playing a contributing role as well early in the season given the injuries to Kittle, Samuel, and Aiyuk.
Another concern is the role of the running backs as receivers in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. In 2019, the 49ers’ backfield totaled a combined 22 percent target share, and through three weeks in 2020, San Francisco’s running backs have combined for a stunning 32 percent target share. Though some of these targets are as a result of the injuries to their tight ends and wide receivers, the running backs will continue to demand high target volume in this offensive scheme.
While it’s true that higher-scoring games could lead to more opportunities for all the pass-catchers in addition to Garoppolo, the fact remains that both Samuel and Aiyuk are likely to see some quiet games despite their high weekly ceiling, leading both to be inconsistent fantasy producers. Aiyuk is a fine hold in dynasty, but if you can get a 2021 first-round rookie pick for him, it would be worth strong consideration to list him on the trade block as a dynasty sell. The 2021 rookie class is projected to be another strong one with many potential true difference makers with more upside than Aiyuk.
Emmanuel Sanders
As with Jordan Reed last week, this one should be fairly obvious, but sometimes in-season injuries can allow for sell-high opportunities to even seasoned dynasty teams. While most are aware that Emmanuel Sanders isn’t a good long-term answer at wide receiver, a contending dynasty team with an 0-3 or 1-2 record might be tempted to take a chance on Sanders after his modest success against the Packers on Sunday night.
Michael Thomas is already practicing and eyeing a potential return this coming week, so the window for Sanders as a dynasty sell is closing quickly. He was always a better real-life contributor to Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense, and he has yet to see more than five targets in a game this year despite Thomas being out with a high ankle sprain the last two weeks. Sanders’s two touchdowns in the first three games on just 13 targets is entirely unsustainable in a Saints offense that is funneled almost exclusively through Thomas and Alvin Kamara when both are healthy.
At 33 years old, Sanders is nearing retirement and has a sliver of dwindling fantasy relevance. Whether contending or rebuilding, dynasty teams would be lucky to sell Sanders for any third-round rookie pick, first targeting teams in contention with a short-term need at the wide receiver position. Even a fourth-round or later pick may be worth it for a player who is likely seeing his final window of holding any sort of dynasty value.
Week 3 Dynasty Sells Revisited:
Darrell Henderson and Jordan Reed were the Week 3 dynasty sells recommended. Henderson looked great against Buffalo, so if you held him through the week, he may have gained even more value. But the stark reality is that a healthy Cam Akers returning to the lineup in the coming week or two will once again make this a messy three-headed committee between Henderson, Akers, and Malcolm Brown. As for Reed, he was listed as an injury risk and just a short-term fill-in at tight end unlikely to repeat his Week 2 performance, and both were proven in Week 3. Hopefully, you were able to pawn Reed off for just about any late-round pick last week.
Like Meng’s Week 4 Dynasty Buys and Sells? Check out the rest of our Week 4 Fantasy Football lineup!
For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng. Also, check back for more, as we’ll be covering the dynasty football angle all year round.
Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites of 2019, and we’re not letting our foot off the pedal now! With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.