Week 4 is the last slate of games for the month of September. It’s also the last slate of games before we have to begin navigating bye weeks. The start or sit decisions as the season goes on will become that much more difficult. Knowing which players you can trust in your lineup will be imperative to your team’s success. This is something I’m keeping in mind as I identify risers, fallers, and a player on the hot seat heading into Week 4.
The players below are a mix of obvious studs and some others you may justifiably still have reservations about heading into Week 4. I’m including this particular group of players because I think they’re more important to discuss than others. Before we dive in, let’s review my Week 3 risers, fallers, and the player on the hot seat that I named before last weekend:
Risers: Brock Bowers, Rashid Shaheed, Josh Jacobs, Quentin Johnston
Fallers: Michael Pittman Jr., Rachaad White, Tyreek Hill, Kyren Williams, Rookie Quarterbacks
Hot Seat: Sam LaPorta
Week 4 Risers, Fallers, and a Player on the Hot Seat
Week 4 Risers
The Carolina Panthers Offense
Oh, how quickly things can change. After scoring 13 total points in Weeks 1 and 2, the Panthers offense erupted for 36 points in Week 3. It’s all in part due to a quarterback change. Three weeks into the 2024 season, and in his only start, Andy Dalton is the only quarterback to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in a single game. Before you say “Well, it was the Las Vegas Raiders”, that same Raiders team went to Baltimore in Week 2 and left with a 26-23 win over the Ravens.
The biggest risers out of Week 3 and heading into Week 4 on this offense are Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard. Considering Adam Thielen is going to miss time with a hamstring injury, Johnson is the unquestioned WR1 in Carolina. His 14 targets in Week 3 are two more than his 12 in Weeks 1 and 2 combined. Johnson’s 122 yards in Week 3 are also a career-high. Last, but not least, his 37.8% target share in Week 3 also ranks third across the league behind only Malik Nabers and Rashee Rice. Johnson is without a doubt an every-week starter with Andy Dalton as his quarterback.
Chuba Hubbard also benefitted from a more competent passing game in Week 3. His 21 carries in Week 3 are five more than the 16 combined in Weeks 1 and 2. Hubbard also logged his fourth career 100+ yard rushing game in as many seasons. More importantly, Hubbard hauled in all five of his targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. When in doubt, Dalton can and will check it down to his running back. Those with Jonathon Brooks stashed on their bench should be extremely encouraged about Hubbard’s role, but may have to temper expectations as Hubbard could remain involved even as Brooks works his way into the offense.
Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers
I don’t know how long Jauan Jennings will be a thing for the 2024 fantasy football season, but how could he not be on the Week 4 riser list after outscoring literally every other play at every position in Week 3? In fact, his 46.5 fantasy points last week are the most of any player so far this season. Jennings’ big boom is attributed to the absence of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle in the 49ers’ passing game. Still, even with Brandon Aiyuk out there, Jennings drew 40% of Brock Purdy’s targets in Week 3. He caught 11 passes for 175 yards and three touchdowns. That includes 149 air yards, the third-most amongst wide receivers.
To open Week 4’s practices, Deebo Samuel remains unavailable with a calf injury. Christian McCaffrey was in Germany recently looking for a solution to his own calf/Achilles injury. Meanwhile, George Kittle returns on a limited basis. Assuming New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez gives Brandon Aiyuk the shadow treatment in Week 4, Jauan Jennings could continue to see a heavy dose of targets. Sure, it’s more likely than not we saw the best game from Jennings this season in Week 3, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have a start-worthy, successful Week 4.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Dowdle isn’t so much of a Week 4 riser that he needs to be in your starting lineup. He has just 22.7 total fantasy points after three games. However, there could be a noticeable change happening in Dallas’ backfield. In their Week 3 loss to the Ravens, in which the Cowboys made a serious late-game comeback, Dowdle played a season-high 46% of the offensive snaps. By itself, there’s nothing impressive about that sort of playing time, but compared to Ezekiel Elliott’s 19% of the snaps, it’s significant.
Dowdle also handled 62% of the Cowboys’ carries. That is with just eight total carries, but handling the majority of the work out of the Cowboys’ backfield is what we want to see. Again, his 11 touches on 13 total opportunities still isn’t enough to demand he be in your starting lineup for Week 4. The Cowboys’ offensive line has to play better, too. We’ll see how things go against the Giants in New York on Thursday Night Football, but for now, Dowdle’s Week 3 usage makes him a riser, however slight.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
Cole Kmet looked like he was behind Gerald Everett on the depth chart to start the season. After three weeks, Kmet is looking like a riser, especially after a TE2 finish in Week 3. Week-to-week, Kmet has seen his snaps increase from 27 (48%) to 54 (77%) to 73 (81%). For fantasy football purposes, especially for a tight end, it matters more if Kmet is involved in the passing game while playing a heavy share of the snaps. After running a route on just 33% of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks in Week 1, Kmet ran a route on 71% of dropbacks in Week 3.
Cole Kmet’s 11 targets tied rookie Rome Odunze for a team-high with 10 for D.J. Moore. I don’t think we can expect this sort of an even spread moving forward, specifically with as many as 11 for Kmet. However, as Williams and the Bears get more comfortable, Kmet could serve as a reliable option at the tight end position for fantasy football. Up next for Kmet are the Los Angeles Rams who’ve allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends (173) on just 14 total receptions.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers
This is a sneaky riser I’m capping off the Week 4 list with as a player you should be holding or acquiring if possible. Romeo Doubs is averaging just 7.0 fantasy points per game. Over the last two weeks, he scored 9.2 points and 2.8 points respectively on just five total targets. However, that’s with Malik Willis as his quarterback. In Week 1, Doubs drew seven targets catching four of them for 50 yards and 9.0 fantasy points.
What’s important to emphasize is that he leads the Packers in routes run. Doubs also leads all Packers wide receivers in snaps with 36 more snaps than the next closest, Jayden Reed. Doubs’ usage alone makes him a riser. Upon Jordan Love’s return, he should be that much more of a riser with more trustworthy quarterback play. Love could return as soon as Week 4. It’s worth noting Doubs had a fairly strong end to the 2023 season, including 10 catches for 234 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets in two playoff games for the Packers.
Week 4 Fallers
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
If you have Garrett Wilson, you’re starting Garrett Wilson. Let me make that very clear. His 28.3% target share is the 10th-highest amongst all wide receivers this season. Wilson is also one of 13 players across all positions with five or more red zone targets. And yes, 513 days after the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson finally caught his first touchdown pass from him. All this said, I would try to sell high on Wilson, for the right deal for your team, if possible.
Wilson has just one game of 20.0+ fantasy points over his last 20 games. I know a lot of that has to do with his quarterback situation from last season. However, he has yet to eclipse 14.3 points this season with Aaron Rodgers; and that’s his Week 3 score with the touchdown!
Wilson is on my Week 4 faller list for a few reasons. First, Aaron Rodgers has targeted eight different players in each of the Jets’ last two games. Breece Hall and Allen Lazard account for 38% of the Jets’ target share and Mike Williams should continue to ramp up his involvement, as well.
Secondly, and most important, is the schedule ahead. From Weeks 4 through 8, Garrett Wilson draws matchups with cornerbacks Patrick Surtain (DEN), Joey Porter (PIT), and Christian Gonzalez (NE). In the other two matchups, he and the Jets will face the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills defenses who are no walk in the park, either. I fear it could get worse before it gets better for Wilson despite his elite usage thus far.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
If you have D’Andre Swift on your roster, you know how bad it’s been this season. If you don’t have D’Andre Swift on your roster, it’s worse than you probably realize. Swift has 37 carries three weeks into this season. All but one of them have gained seven yards or less. When I say “less” I mean five of them have gained just one yard, two of them went for no gain, and nine of them resulted in negative yardage. So, 37% of Swift’s 37 carries have gone for one yard or less.
It’s not all Swift’s fault. Compared to his previous teams, the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles, the offensive line in Chicago is notably worse. In fact, the 19 carries by three other Bears this season have yielded just 62 total yards for a 3.26 yards per-carry average.
The silver lining here is the schedule. Chicago hosts the Los Angeles Rams, Carolina Panthers, and Jacksonville Jaguars over the next three weeks before their Week 7 bye. All three teams rank inside the top six in fantasy points allowed to running backs so far this season. Swift could go from a faller to a riser very quickly which is why I caution fantasy managers from dropping him just yet. However, Roschon Johnson rushed eight times for 30 yards, with four receptions for 32 yards as well, in Week 3. I would add him now in case he sees more opportunities over the next three games.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Ironically, I probably should have Mark Andrews higher on the fallers list. Given where he was selected in fantasy drafts, his lack of return on investment could be the reason you’re 1-2 or 0-3 to start the season. If you have two wins or are undefeated with Mark Andrews on your roster, consider yourself lucky.
Andrews is averaging just 4.16 fantasy points per game this season. That makes him the TE31 on a points-per-game basis. This is after dropping a goose egg in Week 3 against the Dallas Cowboys. What’s more concerning is that Andrews ran just six routes on 33% of the offensive snaps. He barely played and, when he did, was barely involved in the passing game.
You’re probably wondering what to do with Mark Andrews moving forward considering how big of a faller he’s been since drafting him. I wish I had a good answer. We all know by now that the tight end position is closer to being a wasteland than the gold mine we thought it to be. It’s hard to imagine a legitimate replacement for Andrews in your Week 4 lineup. My short list of players you may have drafted or added later on to start ahead of him includes Dallas Goedert, Isaiah Likely, and Cole Kmet. If Alvin Kamara doesn’t play or enters Week 4 without a full practice, Taysom Hill enters this list, as well.
Check out all of our Week 4 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
The Week 4 Hot Seat
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
We have a one-game sample size from Tee Higgins for this season. So, yeah, maybe I’m being a bit too harsh putting him on the Week 4 hot seat. We need to see more from Higgins, though, this week against the Carolina Panthers. If not, it will be hard to trust him in our lineups moving forward.
In the absolute best matchup for wide receivers, the Washington Commanders, in Week 3, Higgins caught just three of his six targets for 39 yards. Two of the targets he did not haul in were tough catches in the end zone, while the other was a 70-yard bomb he did catch, but couldn’t keep his feet in bounds near the end zone. A lot of meat left on the bone.
Despite just a 15.7% target share, it’s encouraging to see Higgins exit Week 3 without any setbacks to his hamstring injury that held him out of the first two games. To open Week 4’s set of practices, Ja’Marr Chase is on the injury report with a shoulder issue, though it’s unclear the severity or if he’s in jeopardy of sitting out. Regardless, Higgins can co-exist with Chase for fantasy football purposes. He and the entire Bengals offense need to get going or they’ll drop to 0-4 against the Carolina Panthers.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!