Projecting fantasy production is as easy as figuring out which team will score 70 points in a given week. Once you know that, the rest is smooth sailing. I would say we should just blindly play all skill players against the Denver Broncos, except that they face the Bears and the Jets in the next two weeks. If you could put all 22 offensive starters on Chicago and New York at the same time, I still don’t think they would score 70 points. But I digress. Below are my Week 4 Flex rankings. I ranked nearly 300 players, so these should help you with most of your start/sit decisions. These rankings are based on half-PPR scoring, so adjust as you see fit based on your league’s specs. Feel free to comment below if you have any specific questions regarding your roster decisions.
Running Back Notes
It was quite the day for Miami’s dynamic duo of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane last week. The pair combined for eight touchdowns in Week 3, as the Dolphins put up the aforementioned 70-burger against the Denver Broncos. Many fantasy managers benched Achane and missed out on his historic performance. It is hard to blame them. After all, the rookie was scratched in Week 1 and handled just two touches in Week 2. The issue now is that those fantasy managers have a major case of FOMO. That may cause some to overvalue Achane in Week 4. I do not consider Achane a must-start this week against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has yet to allow an opposing running back to score a touchdown this season. I currently have the Dolphins’ rookie running back right around the normal threshold for Flex consideration in 12-team leagues.
Thursday night’s matchup features the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. This will be an interesting matchup and feels like a tricky one for fantasy managers to navigate. Both starting running backs, David Montgomery and Aaron Jones, appear likely to play after missing last week’s respective contests. Their expected presence also affects the value of Jahmyr Gibbs and AJ Dillon. You can make a case to start any or all of these backs depending on your other options. I currently rank both Gibbs and Jones as low-end RB2s, and I expect to be lower than most on both. Conversely, I will probably be higher on Montgomery and Dillon than most will be. Having said that, both are RB3s for me, so neither is an automatic start.
Saints running back Alvin Kamara makes his 2023 debut this week after serving a three-game suspension. The Saints will most likely be without quarterback Derek Carr, who suffered an AC joint sprain last week. That means Jameis Winston should be under center when New Orleans faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In two games with Winston last season, Kamara scored a total of 12.4 fantasy points. That is a small sample, but it may mean we should temper expectations, especially considering the layoff. I am probably still starting Kamara where I have him. However, this is another situation where it may depend on who your other running backs are. I currently rank Kamara just outside my overall top 50 in my Week 4 Flex rankings.
Wide Receiver Notes
Chargers wideout Mike Williams suffered a season-ending injury last week. It is hard to imagine Keenan Allen getting any more looks than he has already gotten. The players most likely to benefit from this injury are Josh Palmer and rookie Quentin Johnston. Palmer filled in admirably when both Allen and Williams dealt with injuries last season. He posted six top-36 weekly fantasy finishes in 2022, with an additional four weeks inside the top 50. I expect similar production from him going forward. That puts him squarely in the weekly Flex conversation beginning this week. He is currently my WR42 in half-PPR leagues. Johnston may have more long-term upside, but I am not in a hurry to start him quite yet. I have Johnston outside my top 50 receivers as well as my top 100 overall flex options.
Last week I put my stamp of approval on Nico Collins. So naturally, he had 34 yards while rookie wideout Tank Dell torched Jacksonville for 145 yards and a long touchdown. I think the main takeaway here is that both are viable, and Houston seems to have something with rookie signal-caller C.J. Stroud. Both Collins and Dell already have a pair of top-30 weekly finishes to their credit. The problem is that it may be hard to know which Texans wideout is the better bet each week. This week Houston faces the Pittsburgh Steelers. Though the Steelers have a solid defense, they have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. I believe both Nico Collins and Tank Dell could be worthy of Flex consideration in Week 4 depending on the other available options on your roster.
To be perfectly honest, I was not planning on paying much attention to the Carolina Panthers wide receiver room. Especially after the number-one overall pick, Bryce Young missed last week’s game. But Andy Dalton filled in for Young and Carolina called 62 passing plays for the Red Rifle. Yes, 62. That volume resulted in top-12 fantasy weeks for both Adam Thielen and DJ Chark. Young is expected to return after participating in practice on Wednesday, and I cannot project another 62 dropbacks regardless of who is under center. But Thielen and Chark are certainly on the fantasy radar, at least for the time being. Thielen is my preferred option in leagues that incorporate PPR scoring, and I think he can be a top-40 wide receiver this week. Chark is the better TD bet, but may not see enough volume to warrant consideration as a fantasy starter.
Tight End Notes
I mentioned Sam LaPorta in last week’s column, and the Lions rookie responded with another big day. LaPorta caught eight balls for 84 yards and a touchdown. LaPorta now has the most receptions by a rookie tight end in his first three games in NFL history. He is quickly earning the trust of fantasy managers in all formats. LaPorta will face off on Thursday with another heralded rookie tight end, Green Bay’s Luke Musgrave. Musgrave may not have matched LaPorta’s production as of yet, but his usage is very encouraging. Musgrave has caught 11 passes for 124 yards through three games. He also gets the better head-to-head matchup, as Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. I still prefer LaPorta based on his volume and expected role, but Musgrave should be a sneaky Week 4 start.
Week 4 Flex Rankings
More Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty
| Rank | Name | Pos | Team | Opp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | RB1 | SF | ARI |
| 2 | Tyreek Hill | WR1 | MIA | @BUF |
| 3 | Justin Jefferson | WR2 | MIN | @CAR |
| 4 | Keenan Allen | WR3 | LAC | LV |
| 5 | Tony Pollard | RB2 | DAL | NE |
| 6 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR4 | CIN | @TEN |
| 7 | Stefon Diggs | WR5 | BUF | MIA |
| 8 | Davante Adams | WR6 | LV | @LAC |
| 9 | Josh Jacobs | RB3 | LV | @LAC |
| 10 | Kyren Williams | RB4 | LAR | @IND |
| 11 | Derrick Henry | RB5 | TEN | CIN |
| 12 | Travis Etienne | RB6 | JAC | ATL |
| 13 | Bijan Robinson | RB7 | ATL | @JAC |
| 14 | A.J. Brown | WR7 | PHI | WAS |
| 15 | Kenneth Walker III | RB8 | SEA | @NYG |
| 16 | Zack Moss | RB9 | IND | LAR |
| 17 | Puka Nacua | WR8 | LAR | @IND |
| 18 | Travis Kelce | TE1 | KC | @NYJ |
| 19 | Deebo Samuel | WR9 | SF | ARI |
| 20 | Joe Mixon | RB10 | CIN | @TEN |
| 21 | Miles Sanders | RB11 | CAR | MIN |
| 22 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB12 | NE | @DAL |
| 23 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR10 | DET | @GB |
| 24 | CeeDee Lamb | WR11 | DAL | NE |
| 25 | Chris Olave | WR12 | NO | TB |
| 26 | Raheem Mostert | RB13 | MIA | @BUF |
| 27 | James Cook | RB14 | BUF | MIA |
| 28 | Alexander Mattison | RB15 | MIN | @CAR |
| 29 | Tee Higgins | WR13 | CIN | @TEN |
| 30 | Javonte Williams | RB16 | DEN | @CHI |
| 31 | Mike Evans | WR14 | TB | @NO |
| 32 | Calvin Ridley | WR15 | JAC | ATL |
| 33 | James Conner | RB17 | ARI | @SF |
| 34 | Michael Pittman Jr. | WR16 | IND | LAR |
| 35 | Najee Harris | RB18 | PIT | @HOU |
| 36 | Garrett Wilson | WR17 | NYJ | KC |
| 37 | DK Metcalf | WR18 | SEA | @NYG |
| 38 | Rachaad White | RB19 | TB | @NO |
| 39 | Tutu Atwell | WR19 | LAR | @IND |
| 40 | Isiah Pacheco | RB20 | KC | @NYJ |
| 41 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB21 | DET | @GB |
| 42 | Jerome Ford | RB22 | CLE | BAL |
| 43 | George Pickens | WR20 | PIT | @HOU |
| 44 | Aaron Jones | RB23 | GB | DET |
| 45 | D’Andre Swift | RB24 | PHI | WAS |
| 46 | Dameon Pierce | RB25 | HOU | PIT |
| 47 | Tyler Lockett | WR21 | SEA | @NYG |
| 48 | Amari Cooper | WR22 | CLE | BAL |
| 49 | Matt Breida | RB26 | NYG | SEA |
| 50 | T.J. Hockenson | TE2 | MIN | @CAR |
| 51 | DeVonta Smith | WR23 | PHI | WAS |
| 52 | Alvin Kamara | RB27 | NO | TB |
| 53 | Brian Robinson | RB28 | WAS | @PHI |
| 54 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR24 | TEN | CIN |
| 55 | Christian Kirk | WR25 | JAC | ATL |
| 56 | Courtland Sutton | WR26 | DEN | @CHI |
| 57 | Jakobi Meyers | WR27 | LV | @LAC |
| 58 | Breece Hall | RB29 | NYJ | KC |
| 59 | Jerry Jeudy | WR28 | DEN | @CHI |
| 60 | Zay Flowers | WR29 | BAL | @CLE |
| 61 | Darren Waller | TE3 | NYG | SEA |
| 62 | Terry McLaurin | WR30 | WAS | @PHI |
| 63 | David Montgomery | RB30 | DET | @GB |
| 64 | Chris Godwin | WR31 | TB | @NO |
| 65 | George Kittle | TE4 | SF | ARI |
| 66 | Christian Watson | WR32 | GB | DET |
| 67 | D.J. Moore | WR33 | CHI | DEN |
| 68 | Khalil Herbert | RB31 | CHI | DEN |
| 69 | Michael Thomas | WR34 | NO | TB |
| 70 | Jaylen Warren | RB32 | PIT | @HOU |
| 71 | Nico Collins | WR35 | HOU | PIT |
| 72 | A.J. Dillon | RB33 | GB | DET |
| 73 | Marquise Brown | WR36 | ARI | @SF |
| 74 | Mark Andrews | TE5 | BAL | @CLE |
| 75 | Tank Dell | WR37 | HOU | PIT |
| 76 | Brandon Aiyuk | WR38 | SF | ARI |
| 77 | Adam Thielen | WR39 | CAR | MIN |
| 78 | Jordan Addison | WR40 | MIN | @CAR |
| 79 | Gabe Davis | WR41 | BUF | MIA |
| 80 | Joshua Kelley | RB34 | LAC | LV |
| 81 | Sam LaPorta | TE6 | DET | @GB |
| 82 | Tyler Allgeier | RB35 | ATL | @JAC |
| 83 | Josh Palmer | WR42 | LAC | LV |
| 84 | Jaylen Waddle | WR43 | MIA | @BUF |
| 85 | Elijah Moore | WR44 | CLE | BAL |
| 86 | Kenneth Gainwell | RB36 | PHI | WAS |
| 87 | Drake London | WR45 | ATL | @JAC |
| 88 | Devon Achane | RB37 | MIA | @BUF |
| 89 | Jahan Dotson | WR46 | WAS | @PHI |
| 90 | Jayden Reed | WR47 | GB | DET |
| 91 | Evan Engram | TE7 | JAC | ATL |
| 92 | Dallas Goedert | TE8 | PHI | WAS |
| 93 | Josh Downs | WR48 | IND | LAR |
| 94 | Tyler Boyd | WR49 | CIN | @TEN |
| 95 | Roschon Johnson | RB38 | CHI | DEN |
| 96 | Calvin Austin III | WR50 | PIT | @HOU |
| 97 | Romeo Doubs | WR51 | GB | DET |
| 98 | Kyle Pitts | TE9 | ATL | @JAC |
| 99 | Brandin Cooks | WR52 | DAL | NE |
| 100 | Treylon Burks | WR53 | TEN | CIN |
| 101 | Darius Slayton | WR54 | NYG | SEA |
| 102 | Quentin Johnston | WR55 | LAC | LV |
| 103 | Gus Edwards | RB39 | BAL | @CLE |
| 104 | DeVante Parker | WR56 | NE | @DAL |
| 105 | Robert Woods | WR57 | HOU | PIT |
| 106 | Samaje Perine | RB40 | DEN | @CHI |
| 107 | D.J. Chark | WR58 | CAR | MIN |
| 108 | Kendrick Bourne | WR59 | NE | @DAL |
| 109 | Allen Lazard | WR60 | NYJ | KC |
| 110 | Pat Freiermuth | TE10 | PIT | @HOU |
| 111 | Tyler Higbee | TE11 | LAR | @IND |
| 112 | Dalvin Cook | RB41 | NYJ | KC |
| 113 | Van Jefferson | WR61 | LAR | @IND |
| 114 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR62 | SEA | @NYG |
| 115 | K.J. Osborn | WR63 | MIN | @CAR |
| 116 | Allen Robinson II | WR64 | PIT | @HOU |
| 117 | Rashid Shaheed | WR65 | NO | TB |
| 118 | Austin Ekeler | RB42 | LAC | LV |
| 119 | Josh Reynolds | WR66 | DET | @GB |
| 120 | Luke Musgrave | TE12 | GB | DET |
| 121 | Dalton Kincaid | TE13 | BUF | MIA |
| 122 | Skyy Moore | WR67 | KC | @NYJ |
| 123 | Zach Ertz | TE14 | ARI | @SF |
| 124 | Jake Ferguson | TE15 | DAL | NE |
| 125 | David Njoku | TE16 | CLE | BAL |
| 126 | Tyjae Spears | RB43 | TEN | CIN |
| 127 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE17 | TEN | CIN |
| 128 | Alec Pierce | WR68 | IND | LAR |
| 129 | Jonathan Mingo | WR69 | CAR | MIN |
| 130 | Hunter Henry | TE18 | NE | @DAL |
| 131 | Darnell Mooney | WR70 | CHI | DEN |
| 132 | Curtis Samuel | WR71 | WAS | @PHI |
| 133 | Cole Kmet | TE19 | CHI | DEN |
| 134 | Devin Singletary | RB44 | HOU | PIT |
| 135 | Dalton Schultz | TE20 | HOU | PIT |
| 136 | Gerald Everett | TE21 | LAC | LV |
| 137 | Marvin Mims | WR72 | DEN | @CHI |
| 138 | Antonio Gibson | RB45 | WAS | @PHI |
| 139 | Kareem Hunt | RB46 | CLE | BAL |
| 140 | Michael Gallup | WR73 | DAL | NE |
| 141 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB47 | NE | @DAL |
| 142 | Parris Campbell | WR74 | NYG | SEA |
| 143 | Rondale Moore | WR75 | ARI | @SF |
| 144 | Isaiah Hodgins | WR76 | NYG | SEA |
| 145 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR77 | KC | @NYJ |
| 146 | Chuba Hubbard | RB48 | CAR | MIN |
| 147 | Dawson Knox | TE22 | BUF | MIA |
| 148 | Juju Smith-Schuster | WR78 | NE | @DAL |
| 149 | Jerick McKinnon | RB49 | KC | @NYJ |
| 150 | Juwan Johnson | TE23 | NO | TB |
| 151 | Kadarius Toney | WR79 | KC | @NYJ |
| 152 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR80 | CLE | BAL |
| 153 | Justice Hill | RB50 | BAL | @CLE |
| 154 | Hayden Hurst | TE24 | CAR | MIN |
| 155 | Gary Brightwell | RB51 | NYG | SEA |
| 156 | Tyler Conklin | TE25 | NYJ | KC |
| 157 | Kylen Granson | TE26 | IND | LAR |
| 158 | Taysom Hill | TE27 | NO | TB |
| 159 | Mack Hollins | WR81 | ATL | @JAC |
| 160 | Zach Charbonnet | RB52 | SEA | @NYG |
| 161 | Rashee Rice | WR82 | KC | @NYJ |
| 162 | Sean Tucker | RB53 | TB | @NO |
| 163 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR83 | TEN | CIN |
| 164 | Chase Claypool | WR84 | CHI | DEN |
| 165 | Noah Fant | TE28 | SEA | @NYG |
| 166 | Michael Wilson | WR85 | ARI | @SF |
| 167 | Cade Otton | TE29 | TB | @NO |
| 168 | Kalif Raymond | WR86 | DET | @GB |
| 169 | Terrace Marshall Jr. | WR87 | CAR | MIN |
| 170 | Adam Trautman | TE30 | DEN | @CHI |
| 171 | Tony Jones Jr. | RB54 | NO | TB |
| 172 | Braxton Berrios | WR88 | MIA | @BUF |
| 173 | Donald Parham | TE31 | LAC | LV |
| 174 | Jauan Jennings | WR89 | SF | ARI |
| 175 | Elijah Mitchell | RB55 | SF | ARI |
| 176 | Tank Bigsby | RB56 | JAC | ATL |
| 177 | Justin Watson | WR90 | KC | @NYJ |
| 178 | Rico Dowdle | RB57 | DAL | NE |
| 179 | Rashod Bateman | WR91 | BAL | @CLE |
| 180 | Hunter Renfrow | WR92 | LV | @LAC |
| 181 | Jonnu Smith | TE32 | ATL | @JAC |
| 182 | Latavius Murray | RB58 | BUF | MIA |
| 183 | Mike Gesicki | TE33 | NE | @DAL |
| 184 | Deonte Harty | WR93 | BUF | MIA |
| 185 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB59 | KC | @NYJ |
| 186 | Durham Smythe | TE34 | MIA | @BUF |
| 187 | Tyler Lockett | WR94 | SEA | @NYG |
| 188 | Jamal Agnew | WR95 | JAC | ATL |
| 189 | Zay Jones | WR96 | JAC | ATL |
| 190 | Irv Smith Jr. | TE35 | CIN | @TEN |
| 191 | Odell Beckham Jr. | WR97 | BAL | @CLE |
| 192 | Damien Harris | RB60 | BUF | MIA |
| 193 | Trey Palmer | WR98 | TB | @NO |
| 194 | Logan Thomas | TE36 | WAS | @PHI |
| 195 | Marvin Jones | WR99 | DET | @GB |
| 196 | Brandon Johnson | WR100 | DEN | @CHI |
| 197 | Randall Cobb | WR101 | NYJ | KC |
| 198 | Zamir White | RB61 | LV | @LAC |
| 199 | Cam Akers | RB62 | MIN | @CAR |
| 200 | Austin Hooper | TE37 | LV | @LAC |
| 201 | Kendre Miller | RB63 | NO | TB |
| 202 | Demario Douglas | WR102 | NE | @DAL |
| 203 | Noah Gray | TE38 | KC | @NYJ |
| 204 | Trey Sermon | RB64 | IND | LAR |
| 205 | Deven Thompkins | WR103 | TB | @NO |
| 206 | Wan’Dale Robinson | WR104 | NYG | SEA |
| 207 | Colby Parkinson | TE39 | SEA | @NYG |
| 208 | Nelson Agholor | WR105 | BAL | @CLE |
| 209 | Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR106 | CAR | MIN |
| 210 | Chris Moore | WR107 | TEN | CIN |
| 211 | Dontayvion Wicks | WR108 | GB | DET |
| 212 | Trey McBride | TE40 | ARI | @SF |
| 213 | Jalin Hyatt | WR109 | NYG | SEA |
| 214 | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR110 | PHI | WAS |
| 215 | Ronnie Rivers | RB65 | LAR | @IND |
| 216 | Cole Turner | TE41 | WAS | @PHI |
| 217 | Josh Oliver | TE42 | MIN | @CAR |
| 218 | Michael Carter | RB66 | NYJ | KC |
| 219 | Keaontay Ingram | RB67 | ARI | @SF |
| 220 | Michael Mayer | TE43 | LV | @LAC |
| 221 | Mo Alie-Cox | TE44 | IND | LAR |
| 222 | Ben Skowronek | WR111 | LAR | @IND |
| 223 | Trayveon Williams | RB68 | CIN | @TEN |
| 224 | Isaiah Spiller | RB69 | LAC | LV |
| 225 | John Metchie III | WR112 | HOU | PIT |
| 226 | Will Dissly | TE45 | SEA | @NYG |
| 227 | Melvin Gordon | RB70 | BAL | @CLE |
| 228 | River Cracraft | WR113 | MIA | @BUF |
| 229 | Trent Sherfield | WR114 | BUF | MIA |
| 230 | Daniel Bellinger | TE46 | NYG | SEA |
| 231 | Deuce Vaughn | RB71 | DAL | NE |
| 232 | Isaiah Likely | TE47 | BAL | @CLE |
| 233 | John Bates | TE48 | WAS | @PHI |
| 234 | Ty Chandler | RB72 | MIN | @CAR |
| 235 | Craig Reynolds | RB73 | DET | @GB |
| 236 | Kavontae Turpin | WR115 | DAL | NE |
| 237 | Jalen Tolbert | WR116 | DAL | NE |
| 238 | Cordarrelle Patterson | RB74 | ATL | @JAC |
| 239 | Devin Duvernay | WR117 | BAL | @CLE |
| 240 | Ronnie Bell | WR118 | SF | ARI |
| 241 | Brycen Hopkins | TE49 | LAR | @IND |
| 242 | Khalil Shakir | WR119 | BUF | MIA |
| 243 | Harrison Bryant | TE50 | CLE | BAL |
| 244 | C.J. Uzomah | TE51 | NYJ | KC |
| 245 | Drew Sample | TE52 | CIN | @TEN |
| 246 | Dyami Brown | WR120 | WAS | @PHI |
| 247 | Andrew Ogletree | TE53 | IND | LAR |
| 248 | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB75 | DEN | @CHI |
| 249 | Tim Jones | WR121 | JAC | ATL |
| 250 | Derius Davis | WR122 | LAC | LV |
| 251 | Connor Heyward | TE54 | PIT | @HOU |
| 252 | Elijah Dotson | RB76 | LAC | LV |
| 253 | Alec Ingold | RB77 | MIA | @BUF |
| 254 | Samori Toure | WR123 | GB | DET |
| 255 | Quez Watkins | WR124 | PHI | WAS |
| 256 | DeeJay Dallas | RB78 | SEA | @NYG |
| 257 | Brevin Jordan | TE55 | HOU | PIT |
| 258 | Kyle Juszczyk | RB79 | SF | ARI |
| 259 | Jordan Akins | TE56 | CLE | BAL |
| 260 | Emari Demercado | RB80 | ARI | @SF |
| 261 | Ameer Abdullah | RB81 | LV | @LAC |
| 262 | Pierre Strong | RB82 | CLE | BAL |
| 263 | Foster Moreau | TE57 | NO | TB |
| 264 | Zach Pascal | WR125 | ARI | @SF |
| 265 | Peyton Hendershot | TE58 | DAL | NE |
| 266 | Zach Evans | RB83 | LAR | @IND |
| 267 | Brock Wright | TE59 | DET | @GB |
| 268 | D'Ernest Johnson | RB84 | JAC | ATL |
| 269 | Kenyan Drake | RB85 | BAL | @CLE |
| 270 | Chris Manhertz | TE60 | DEN | @CHI |
| 271 | Darnell Washington | TE61 | PIT | @HOU |
| 272 | Mecole Hardman | WR126 | NYJ | KC |
| 273 | Justyn Ross | WR127 | KC | @NYJ |
| 274 | Chris Evans | RB86 | CIN | @TEN |
| 275 | Robert Tonyan Jr. | TE62 | CHI | DEN |
| 276 | Josiah Deguara | TE63 | GB | DET |
| 277 | Marquise Goodwin | WR128 | CLE | BAL |
| 278 | C.J. Ham | RB87 | MIN | @CAR |
| 279 | Cedrick Wilson | WR129 | MIA | @BUF |
| 280 | Tre Tucker | WR130 | LV | @LAC |
| 281 | Xavier Hutchinson | WR131 | HOU | PIT |
| 282 | Tanner Hudson | TE64 | CIN | @TEN |