Week 4 in the NFL is underway, and with it comes another trio of player props for us to dive into. I must preface this by saying that none of these props involve Travis Kelce or his new lady friend. If you yearn for content relative to those two individuals, I am sure there are other places on the interwebs where you can find whatever it is you are looking for. Now that we have gotten that out of the way, let’s get to my picks. Below are my three favorite NFL player props for Week 4 as well as my reasoning for each pick. As always, make sure you have the latest information and are shopping for the best price before hitting that submit button. Adjust any plays as you see fit and gamble responsibly.
Week 4 NFL Player Props
Joe Burrow OVER 36.5 Passing Attempts (-115, MGM)
Joe Burrow gutted his way through a calf injury on Monday night, leading the Bengals to their first victory. He is expected to play through the injury for the foreseeable future. Despite the injury, Burrow threw the ball 49 times last week. That is noteworthy because the Los Angeles Rams entered that game allowing 122 yards per game on the ground and posting a 5.56 percent sack rate on opponents dropbacks. And yet the Bengals’ plan of attack was to emphasize their short passing game rather than try to beat the Rams on the ground. Now they will take on a Tennessee defense that sacks the quarterback at a much higher rate (8.55 percent) and allows the fewest yards per rush (2.6) in the NFL.
This matchup feels tailor-made for Cincinnati to employ a similar offensive game plan as it used thus far this year. Cincinnati has called pass plays on 69.2 percent of their offensive snaps this season. Burrow is tied for fourth in the NFL with 121 pass attempts so far this year. Meanwhile, his aDOT (average depth of target) this season is just 6.5 yards downfield. That is the third-lowest mark in the league for starting quarterbacks. I do not expect any of that to regress negatively given this matchup. I prefer taking his attempts over completions because Burrow has only completed 55.4 percent of his throws this season. Only Zach Wilson has a lower completion rate. I am taking the Over on Joe Burrow’s passing attempts as my top Week 4 NFL player prop.
Logan Thomas OVER 2.5 Receptions (+106, Caesars)
This feels like a situation where the sportsbooks might be sleeping on Logan Thomas a bit. Thomas has six catches for 65 yards on 11 targets so far this season. None of those numbers jump off the page. However, we have to take a deeper dive into Thomas’ output. He suffered a concussion in the second quarter of Washington’s Week 2 game and subsequently missed last week’s contest. If you strictly focus on when Thomas has been on the field, he has been heavily involved in Washington’s offense. His 11 targets came on quarterback Sam Howell’s first 55 dropbacks. Some quick math tells us that is a 20 percent target share. That is a stark contrast to his season-long mark of 11.1 percent. Here is a list of tight ends who have earned a target share higher than 20 percent this season:
Zach Ertz
Sam LaPorta
T.J. Hockenson
George Kittle
Darren Waller
Suddenly, Thomas finds himself in some pretty good company at the tight end position. Those five tight ends have registered three or more receptions in 15 of 16 games so far this season. That includes a seven-catch effort by Hockenson against the same Eagles squad Thomas will face on Sunday. Projecting Thomas to catch seven balls might be a stretch. But we don’t even need him to get halfway there in order to cash this prop at plus money. Philadelphia has also allowed two other tight ends to catch at least three balls against them already this year. For the season, the Eagles rank in the top five in receptions (18) and completion percentage (81.8 percent) allowed to opposing tight ends. Even though he has only been healthy for roughly half of Washington’s offensive snaps, Thomas leads their tight end group in pass snaps (62) and routes run (52).
Washington is also a sizable underdog in this game, which could play into this prop being in our favor. If the Commanders fall behind as expected, they will be more likely to rely on the passing game. And against Philadelphia’s vaunted pass rush, that means short, quick throws. That goes double considering Howell has been sacked a league-high 19 times. Thomas’ 6.18 aDOT should come in handy here. As should the fact that Washington’s other two tight ends (Cole Turner and John Bates) are much better in pass-blocking metrics than Thomas is. I expect Thomas to be heavily targeted regardless of the game script, but this is yet another checkmark on the “pro” side of the pro/con ledger. This is one of my favorite Week 4 NFL player props, and I am jumping on it at this price before the books wise up.
Russell Wilson OVER 239.5 Passing Yards (-115, Caesars)
I thought about leaving this Week 4 player prop alone, mostly because I do not want to subject myself to watching this game. But as bad as Denver has been, their offense hasn’t been the issue. Denver ranks 14th in offensive DVOA, including 16th in passing offense and 18th in rushing offense. Their problems have been on the defensive end, where they have gotten off to a historically bad start. I think to some extent that Denver’s woes on defense have masked how bad the Chicago Bears have also been defensively. The Bears rank 30th in defensive DVOA overall, including 31st against the pass. Sure, they faced Patrick Mahomes last week. But let’s remove that game from the equation for a minute. Here is how the other quarterbacks the Bears have faced (Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield) have fared versus Chicago compared to their other games:
Love/Mayfield vs. Chicago (2 games): 41-for-61 (67.2 percent completion), 562 passing yards (9.21 yards per attempt, 281 yards per game), 4 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack allowed
Love/Mayfield vs. all other opponents (5 games): 95-for-164 (57.9 percent completion), 975 passing yards (5.95 yards per attempt, 195 yards per game), 8 TD, 4 INT, 10 sacks allowed
Through three weeks, Russell Wilson ranks in the top 10 in both yards per pass attempt and total passing yards. And for those wondering, yes, that would hold even if you remove the fluky Week 2 Hail Mary. Chicago runs a version of the Tampa-2 defense, rushing four and playing a lot of zone coverage. The Bears lead the NFL in zone coverage on passing downs. Wilson ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per attempt when facing zone coverage and four rushers, per the33rdteam.com. He has also thrown five touchdown passes in those conditions, whereas no other quarterback has thrown more than three. That is interesting because you can get plus money on Wilson throwing two or more touchdowns on Sunday. For now, though, I am going to stick with Wilson’s passing yards prop as my official pick.
Week 4 Rankings for your season-long leagues: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty