I went 1-1 last week (with one void) on my NFL player props, to bring my record to 6-2 on the season. This week, I am eyeing some favorable matchups in the passing game. Hopefully, these players can help us finish the month of September on a high note. As always, shop for the best prices available and adjust all wagers as you see fit.
NFL Week 4 Player Props
Nico Collins OVER 79.5 Receiving Yards (-130, DraftKings)
Keep an eye on both the number and pricing for this particular Week 4 NFL player prop. When I started looking into this earlier in the week, BetMGM had the yardage total for Nico Collins listed at 75.5. They have since pulled it and have not yet reposted it. I have seen similar activity at other books as well. I am guessing this is the result of Collins popping up on the injury report. But the injury does not seem serious enough to cause Collins to miss this game. It feels like the books may be using this as an excuse to rethink this one. DraftKings is the only sportsbook currently offering this price, but someone may beat it between now and Sunday.
There are a couple of reasons I like Nico Collins this week. First is his recent history both at home and with quarterback C.J. Stroud. Since the beginning of last season, Collins has at least 80 receiving yards in eight of 10 home games with Stroud under center. In the interest of full disclosure, Collins landed on exactly 80 yards twice in those 10 games. But a hit is a hit, and I am picking him to hit again when the Texans host the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4. I also like this from a schematic standpoint, which is more important than home and road splits.
Jacksonville plays the most man coverage in the NFL. And they’re not particularly good at it. Per Pro Football Focus, Jacksonville ranks below average in several key metrics in man coverage. They include yards per coverage snap (6.65) and explosive play rate allowed (14.7 percent). Collins has crushed man coverage since his breakout 2023 campaign. Since the beginning of last season, Collins has averaged 4.32 yards per route run against man coverage. Collins has at least four inches and 20 pounds on all of Jacksonville’s primary cornerbacks, so expect Stroud to target Collins with a couple of 50-50 balls. This game has all the makings for a Nico Collins smash spot.
Check out all of our Week 4 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Brock Purdy OVER 224.5 Passing Yards (-145, ESPNBet)
Brock Purdy may be without all of his offensive weapons in Week 4, but I think the sportsbooks are not giving him enough credit for his efficiency. Purdy has gone over this number in all three games this season and in 17 of 24 career starts. I believe Purdy will also benefit from a matchup with a New England Patriots defense that is shaping up as a pass funnel under new head coach Jerod Mayo.
New England is currently allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game while giving up the fifth-fewest yards on the ground. We think of the San Francisco 49ers as a running team. And they are in the top 10 in both rushing yards per game and attempts per game. At the same time, however, the 49ers lead the NFL in passing yards per game through three weeks even with all of the injury issues that their pass catchers have been dealing with.
The Patriots have allowed a 75 percent completion rate through three games this year. In the process, two of the three quarterbacks they have faced have surpassed this number. Both who did so (Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers) recorded at least 280 passing yards against the Patriots. A big reason for that is that New England has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL at just 25 percent. When Purdy has a clean pocket this year, he has completed 76.9 percent of his passes at 9.7 yards per attempt.
San Francisco is a heavy favorite, so there is a chance they get up big and take the air out of the ball. I believe that is why this number is a bit low. But I think if they do get up early, it will likely be behind the right arm of the former Mr. Irrelevant. So I am fine taking this player prop at this number.
Rashee Rice 70+ Receiving Yards (-132, FanDuel)
Please know that what I am about to say in no way makes this pick (or any other pick) a lock. There is no such thing, and I am not one of those people who you will see screaming about 10 Unit or Mega Max Whale plays on social media or in ads. The plays I post in articles like this one are meant to be 1U plays. Modest risk for a modest return on investment. Maybe gives you a little more incentive to watch football and ignore your family, that sort of thing. Having said that, I have more confidence in some NFL player props than others. This is one I am quite confident in. I will explain my rationale, and you can do with that information what you will. I am not a financial consultant.
Sure, Rashee Rice has 75 or more receiving yards in three straight games to start the year. But that honestly has very little to do with why I like him to do so this week. What I like is Rice’s Week 4 opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles plays zone coverage at an 84.1-percent rate, the highest in the NFL. Rice is one of the best receivers in the league against zone coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, Rice has been targeted 71 times versus zone coverage since entering the league last season. He has caught 61 of those passes for 780 yards. That is 11 yards per target.
Last week, Kansas City played the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta plays zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Rice had a 35.9-percent target share in that ga
Make sure to check out all of our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!