Great, you are back for another week. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. The results were average on both the tails (2-2) and the fades (1-1). It was a tough week as Dallas never had a chance against Arizona in a shockingly empty affair. Baltimore came close to a victory, but ultimately, they were not strong enough.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 4 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots
After two blowout victories to begin the season, the Cowboys disappointed a lot of people last week. If the Patriots didn’t play the Jets last week, they likely would be entering this week 0-3, but by the same thought process, Dallas benefited from beating both New York teams.
Returning home after a wake-up call of a loss in Arizona though could be just what Dallas needs. CeeDee Lamb is looking for his first touchdown of the season, although he does have 19 receptions for 274 yards. Additionally, Tony Pollard is coming off a strong performance in which he carried the ball 23 times for 122 yards against Arizona. That is a true workhorse running back performance and should continue to provide balance to Dallas’ offense.
This then ultimately comes down to the strong defense the Cowboys feature. They rank third in the league with just 12.7 points allowed as well as fifth in total yardage against. New England and Mac Jones are not strong enough offensively to overtake this. The Cowboys should prevail in a very winnable game at home in a bounce-back effort. For all of the reasons that we picked them against Arizona, that thought process should carry through. Our only difference is that they are now looking to rebound from a bad loss.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
The Eagles do have a short week coming off a Monday night victory, but they weren’t really taxed. Philadelphia never really allowed the Buccaneers to get in the game or to put the outcome in question.
D’Andre Swift has emerged as the lead runner with the Eagles and also as a real weapon. After just one carry for three yards in the season opener, Swift ran for 175 four days later and followed that up with 130 yards on 16 carries. With just 640 passing yards in three games, Jalen Hurts hasn’t even had to get going although he does have six combined touchdowns.
Sam Howell is now up to five interceptions on the season against just three touchdowns as the Commanders are lucky to be 2-1 at this point. Philadelphia has a strong defense that has yet to truly get going, but their proficiency in stopping the run game cannot be ignored. The Eagles are first in the league with just 48.3 rushing yards against. That will force Howell to make plays, and at this point, he hasn’t proven to be capable of that.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers are by far the biggest favorite on the slate. Based on their success this season though, it really shouldn’t come as a surprise.
San Francisco is third in the league with 30 points per game and also fifth with just 14 points allowed on the defensive side of the ball. To say that is a huge spread would be an understatement, as the 49ers are simply dominant in all facets of the game.
Arizona did defeat the Cowboys at home last week, but does anyone really trust Joshua Dobbs? It is fair to at least have some doubt about whether this is a trap game for the 49ers, but they are also clearly the better team.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Let’s be honest, this one simply writes itself. To be fair, I am a long-suffering Jets fan and the frustration can’t be overstated, but it seems pretty clear cut, right?
To be honest, it is a little surprising to see that the point spread is only 9.5 points, but the Jets are more than Zach Wilson’s struggles. New York does have a strong defense and they managed to shut down Josh Allen in Week 1. That was the beginning of the season though, and regardless of how good the Jets’ defense does, do we really think Wilson can outscore Patrick Mahomes?
The big problem for the Jets, other than the obvious, is that they have failed to establish the run game. Dalvin Cook has yet to make an impact, and while Breece Hall had a few big runs, there is nothing sustainable here. Kansas City’s defense is tied for fourth in the league with just 13.3 points allowed per game, and while anything is possible, all signs are pointing our survivor picks to the Chiefs.
Games to Fade
This is an interesting week as there are no other games with a point spread of more than four points, so we are just going to make one pick here.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Just because I am looking to fade the Chargers, it doesn’t mean I don’t think they will. But from a comfort standpoint, we have four other games with larger spreads, and at this point in the season, I’m not looking to take chances if I don’t have to.
Neither defense is strong, the Chargers are allowing 29 points per game and the Raiders 25.7, and each team is 1-2. Las Vegas has yet to establish Josh Jacobs and the run game, but he is a talented back who didn’t have the benefit of Training Camp. Between Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, the Raiders also have legitimate weapons in the passing game.
While there are some rumblings about Aaron Ekeler’s return, I wouldn’t expect to see him back this week, and after Week 1, Joshua Kelley has yet to truly stand out. We can’t discount Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, but it will also be interesting to see the Chargers’ offense without Mike Williams. It is for this reason that they will not be one of my survivor picks for this week.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Kansas City, Philadelphia
Line 2
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City
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